jaxjagman

2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 Daily SOI

Downwelling KW somewhere around 140W is putting a hurting on Nina.You can see it well on the Pentad.KW and the MJO passing through won't play nice with Nina.

SOI 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47

SOI today 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 Kelvin Wave coming up east of the IDL,looks better than yesterday.

CFS shows Nina hanging,no sign yet of Nino.We'll see SOI now the last couple of weeks has been the best Nina state since the on set 2018 11 1013.53 1007.10 8.58 2018 12 1013.34 1006.85 8.86 2018 13 1013.79 1008.15 4.86 2018 14 1013.64 1007.75 6.04 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68

Daily SOI 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83

Our severe season in the Valley early season seems to slipping away each day,you thinking the same ?March is looking like a dud right now to me anyways.Don't mean no severe.but..

The SOI is holding firm right now.It's kinda similar of what we seen late into Nov where the MJO went through west of the IDL but the MJO is much stronger by the looks right now this go around 2018 2017 318 1012.76 1007.95 12.28 2017 319 1013.52 1008.80 11.70 2017 320 1013.25 1007.90 15.71 2017 321 1012.80 1007.95 12.53 2017 322 1012.94 1007.90 13.74 2017 323 1012.50 1007.60 12.85 2017 324 1012.41 1007.95 10.05 2017 325 1012.00 1007.70 9.03 2017 326 1011.02 1006.00 13.61 2017 327 1010.68 1005.50 14.63 2019 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 The strong wind burst around the IDL is fixing to leave and bring a Kelvin Wave east of the IDL in time by the looks

Region 4 has taking a dip recently,more the result of the MJO coming through

Maybe a strong Nino next year, but i don't see it right now this year.You want to see those ocean anomalies pillow up west of the IDL then let go like gang busters .There is no real signs of that now,some warming is showing on the Pentad but it's still not earth shattering ,but who knows you might be right,

Jamstec ensemble mean shows Nina not lasting much longer but still Nina like conditions until late spring and going neutral through 2020,though some disagreement with it's members.(MAM) looks BN (cooler) in the Valley

Think it's to early to tell.That would be something else if Nina came back again.There never have been trips,just a couple back to back Ninas,since 1950 anyways http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

NMME/IMME is showing Nina lasting into late spring/early summer Nina has probably just about peaked or has by the looks with warmer waters trying to build up in the depths on the ETA.The last several days there has been some warming in region 1+2.CPC/IRI shows a 50% chance of the ENSO being neutral next fall and possibly into next winter. The BOM thinks Nina will hang on a bit later, Weak La Niña continues over the Pacific A weak La Niña pattern continues in the tropical Pacific. This event is likely to be at or near its peak, with most models suggesting this La Niña will end during the southern autumn. Sea surface temperatures currently show a clear La Niña pattern, with coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Likewise, some atmospheric indicators such as trade winds and cloudiness also show a clear La Niña signal. However, a continuing build-up of warmer water beneath the surface of the western Pacific is a likely precursor to the end of this event. In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, thresholds need to be exceeded for at least three months. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to last through the southern summer, and decay in the early southern autumn of 2018, so these thresholds are likely to be met. La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during summer, particularly in northern New South Wales and Queensland. However, a weak La Niña will have less influence on Australian rainfall than a strong event. La Niña events can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April.

I like severe season also.The only set back to me looks like if there is a SSW event that would throw a wrench in it,but i dont see it right now.Some signs of downwelling into Feb,not sure it will work out,even if if did it could even go on the wrong side and benefit severe season.The Equatorial temp anomaly is already showing some warm areas trying to upwell even east of the IDL,So we basically have seen Nina peak,if it holds on a few more weeks.Severe season looks good to me,especially early season.We should have one more cold snap first of Feb.,then games on ,what it looks to me right now

Meant to post back sooner.When i get back from Chicago i will do this.But you need to help out this time as well with other posters here,this is really time consuming,and i know others can chime in which would benefit the thread as well.We have some good posters here now and it's growing.So everyone should chime in from time to time with thoughts

These are just predictions based on models into late winter into spring.It's not rare various sites fine tune their EMS in the winter time here.There is no threat of severe weather upcoming with the cold established at this time

Looks like an early severe threat into the Valley and possibly later on into the spring time.Enso looks like a transition from a more Nina pattern into a more Nino pattern in the summer,could be a crap year into the plains the way it looks right now.Either way winter time into spring time is showing some potential as it looks right now

i keep reading this thread and get more hungry every time..lol

Tornado Outbreaks Data http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/

Joe Renken and Josh Herman Bearing Sea Blog http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/p/bsr-forecast-maps.html http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/bsr/ http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1516/index.html

Another tool from the NCDA.Using Lawrenceburg as an example when the F5 hit there back in 1998 It's easier to put on all events for what state and county you use http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=47%2CTENNESSEE# Edit:The F5 in Lawrenceburg could have been much worse than anyone could have imagined.Adjacent to it's path was the city Ethridge which is home to one of the largest Amish communities in the state of Tn,luckily it just went through the fields basically.As most people know,Amish builds their own homes and basically they never would have known what could have been without electricity or any source of communication.

Storm Data AND UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENA WITH LATE REPORTS AND CORRECTIONS http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/sd/sd.html

https://www.windyty.com/?clouds,36.067,-86.748,4 Another fun tool to play with