jaxjagman

Keep a eye on this time frame.The MJO has been showing signs of being LESS progressive as it was being shown getting into the IO into week 2 now more mid month,either way

JMA

The MJO also would be favorable during this time on the maps above.But where it goes after it gets into the IO is in question and how amped it will be when it does get there

Maybe towards the Mid month we'll see a better system.The boundary isn't up towards the lakes but a warm front potentially could be lifting through the Valley

If some of the seasonals are right by the POAMA looking at the IOD,more neutral(negative) will possibly be into summer.Nothing + looking right now to be more or less inductive to a Nino,right now anyways

If the weeklies are anywhere right not only there would be a severe threat but a big flooding threat into wk 1 and week 2 of May.This system around the first of May is looking better also recently,so we'll have to see what happens with this

If the GAAM into the May don't get taken out like Jeff mentioned.The GAAM is showing almost -3.5 sigma,this is the same time frame mentioned above,once again,we'll see

If the BSR map is correct we could be looking at the potential for some good storms into week 2 of May.The Dashboard is all over this time frame.Along with the BSR maps shows a area of LP coming out of Texas into the Valley.The OLR has been showing up on this time frame as well.We'll see

The frontogenesis on the Euro on May 1st looks fairly close to the BSR maps,only problem is the split flow right now.The BSR maps look well right now.Severe threat seems low right now into the first part of May,in the Valley

Chance for a KW week 3-4 as you mentioned also.Upper trough being shown right now won't be much of any severe weather in the Valley upcoming unless that changes

IMME , precip for May.Would seem to be a active month if it were to be right.

IMME is neutral into fall

Edit:Put the wrong BSR map up.Had 4-1 and put the right one up.5-3,either way it's still around the first of May we are talking about

Nina is more neutral(negative) today.Far as cane season goes the GOM in the early season should be what the Valley would look at right now that could effect us.The MDR in the GOM has been running abnormally warm

As expected also as mentioned a few days ago the GEFS showed the MJO crashing into the COD when getting into Africa(phase 8),this is GEFS biased.It's a hater of the IO.It's -2 sigma into the IO

Seems like the potential for a strong system around the 1st of May,though this could be occluded by the looks.The SOI has recently made some wild swings recently,but it's shown to have made around a 36 point drop recently.The BSR maps shows a cold front with a warm front lifting ahead.Now we also see in the long range looking into Asia(Korea),we see this potential from the Euro.We'll see.

Chance for some thunderstorms the end of the week.Euro has better instability right now.Best chance of severe would be in the Western Valley,right now. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Apr 08 2018 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The primary feature of interest during the extended period will be a deep/amplified mid-level trough that will reach the central US by D6/Fri. As it does so, strengthening west/southwesterly flow aloft will transport steep lapse rates over much of the southern/central Plains. Meanwhile, a robust low-level mass response will feature a narrow corridor of enhanced poleward theta-e transport, generally from eastern Texas to the lower Missouri Valley. As a dry line and cold front accelerate east across the region, low/mid-level ascent is forecast to strengthen sufficiently to overcome convective inhibition and promote thunderstorms from eastern Texas to parts of the Midwest through Friday night. While medium-range guidance continues to exhibit run-to-run variability with regards to the amplitude/timing of the trough, most deterministic/ensemble guidance suggest strong/severe thunderstorms will be most likely from eastern Texas to the Ozarks and Mid-South Friday afternoon through the overnight. Within this corridor, vigorous low/mid-level wind fields should overlap adequate surface-based buoyancy, such that all severe hazards may be possible with maturing convection. Therefore, a 15-percent probability has been introduced with this forecast cycle. Further refinements of this area (with some potential for a northward expansion) will likely be needed in future updates. The trough will advance further east through D7/Sat-D8/Sun, with pockets of strong/severe convection potentially persisting across areas from the Ohio Valley south to the Gulf Coast. Despite this potential, uncertainties regarding availability of adequate instability, the eastward evolution of the trough, and subsequent timing/placement of stronger convection remain too high to introduce probabilities beyond D6/Fri. ..Picca.. 04/08/2018

NMME shows a weak Nino into summer

There's a chance,we'll see

Yup,i agree.Asia is crapping out on today's models in the long range,like you said though there is more potential for a storm around the 20-21st which what the weeklies are showing,but this might be just a brief lull and maybe a more pattern change?.CFS has been trending warmer towards the end of the month.Also we've seen some outbreaks when the MJO gets into the IO 8-10 days later but the MJO on the Euro is active while the GEFS wants to crash it into the COD but this is typical GEFS trying to stay out of the IO.But the Euro shows it relative strong until it gets into 3 and then goes into the COD.Nothing is imminent right now due to the lagging SSW,it's throwing off any severe percursors you mentioned.But i'd watch this system around the 20-21st,it has potential

The more i think of it, i think 2010-2011,wasn't that bad.The warm up actually started in Feb. as Jeff said,but it was a early winter sort of speaking.I had to go back and do some Wiki because i remember the big snow when i was living in Lawrenceburg was around this time frame in Jan of 2011.Also just after this was the bowling ball that came off the west coast and went due east across Nashville.Nashville got socked and we got nothing but rain in Lawrenceburg. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/snow/201101 I think this was a more a two part LaNina.In"MJJ" of 2011 above on the chart the ENSO went neutral (negative) -0.4 this was no longer classified a Nina.But during"JJA" the ENSO went back to a Nina,but you could probably just say it was a Nina. But f you want to compare this Nina back to the 2010-2011 i might look at 2011-2012 instead,but that's not going to happen.March of 2012 was brutal warm as well as March of 2011 The last 15 years the coldest March colder than this one in 2018 was back into 2005 coming off a weak Nino

2010-11,i'm sure many of us thought this was going to be a great cold winter.Much BN temps "DJF" but when we got into"JFM",we torched.This warmth started into January and never let go

More Modoki looking right now