jaxjagman

The latest NMME shows a moderate Nino into DJF,this update.Much better look for a potential "Modoki" with the SST's to east,it was much warmer looking last time.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0407 AM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential exists for a significant severe event to transpire day 4 (Monday) into day 5 (Tuesday) mainly from the lower MS Valley into the Southeast States. Model solutions have converged and demonstrated run to run consistency, depicting significant cyclogenesis to commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in response to an approaching intense upper jet within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into IL overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to destabilization with moderate instability possible from east TX into a portion of the Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are likely to develop along advancing cold front Monday afternoon initially from southeast OK into east TX, then spreading into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions Monday night. Impressive wind profiles with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat for damaging wind, tornadoes and large hail. Severe threat will continue east through portions of the Southeast states and Middle Atlantic Tuesday.

Some better capes down in the Southern Valley,pretty dynamical negative tilted fall storm though shaping up.Still some slight differences in the GFS and Euro.We'll see if the SPC puts anyone in a risk area tomorrow

Euro has a much weaker system,has some KI.Some better showalter in the eastern valley during the day,maybe some thunder.Overall weaker system that stays neutral tilt and don't really go negative

Nice system like we talked about in the fall thread last week with the trough going through East Asia and Yutu not re-curving and going into the Phillippines but there still was the trough either way.Storm starts to go -ve tilt somewhere around the Central plains.Would be a nice system but still a long way out but still nice it has some backing

Other than slight timing differences,it's not an outlier right now.

Definite would be some nice winds

Tidbits seem to be running too cool

Some signs of possibly westerlies east of the IDL coming back around the end of the month upcoming,have to wait and see.

The last couple weeks https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

What Nino vs Nino "Modoki" looks like.You have warmer waters in the central flanked by cooler anomalies during an "Modoki" within the boxed areas,parts in between are neutral

The BOM was showing a strong Nino last update,came back down to earth this update with a more moderate one.

Good article,thanks John.I was wanting to know more what her findings were about in Dec. or late autumn into early winter.We are a time time in an El Nino year where tornado activity starts to spike and actually we are only a few weeks to where it peaks in fall severe.

Do you have access to this?Would like to know a little more about the paper,just don't want to spend $35 Not sure if i should ask you that question but i thought i'd give it a shot Abstract The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Gulf of Mexico (GoM) influence winter tornado variability and significant tornado (EF2+) environments. Increases occur in the probability of a significant tornado environment from the southern Plains to Midwest during La Niña, and across the southern contiguous United States (CONUS) during El Niño. Winter significant tornado environments are absent across Florida, Georgia, and the coastal Carolinas during moderate-to-strong La Niña events. Jet stream modulation by ENSO contributes to higher tornado totals during El Niño in December and La Niña in January, especially when simultaneous with a warm GoM. ENSO-neutral phases yield fewer and weaker tornadoes, but proximity to warm GoM climate features can enhance the probability of a significant tornado environment. ENSO intensity matters; stronger ENSO phases generate increases in tornado frequency and the probability of a significant tornado environment, but are characterized by large variance, in which very strong El Niño and La Niña events can produce unfavorable tornado climatological states. This study suggests that it is a feasible undertaking to expand spring seasonal and subseasonal tornado prediction efforts to encompass the winter season, which is of importance given the notable threat posed by winter tornadoes. Significant tornadoes account for 95% of tornado fatalities and winter tornadoes are rated significant more frequently than during other seasons. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0046.1

Not sure who has CrankyWX site bookmarked, but i'd for sure do this one.You most certainly could delete a few you already have. http://www.stormhamster.com/resource.htm

It's leveled off recently.The dark shade is positive the white shade is negative.It could still stay weak/positive-negative into winter then drop off into winter http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore.dat Edit:"Drop off", i mean going more positive, just wanted to clarify that to avoid confusion

Have to wake this thread up https://www.apnews.com/9ddb3deeec9a49d6a1349b78f1ca0f03 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2.epdf?author_access_token=PQZthaEqlkut62uLi4HlpNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Ofpugx93Jq3uh7IKWsjvSCCm9cT6oavbBDxy4CNfmgPbnVGCtRW0GfAXKcI3DSQ1vbeVbyw-jzqriwQAlEDMNsLcaDsYkvTU-SaxpOcafW-Q%3D%3D

IMME Update

Could be a sign of a decent KW/MJO into the first part OF November maybe getting east of the IDL,something to keep an eye on right now

Jamstec shows a strong Nino with the Valley cold.This would be or possibly be an active Southern Jet with a southern storm track,if it's right of course.But we've had some decent winter storms in the past in the Valley with a moderate to strong Nino.The New Years day storm of 1964 pops up in my mind. https://www.weather.gov/ohx/newyearsday1964snowstorm

FWIW El Niño ALERT; positive Indian Ocean Dipole likely underway The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to El Niño ALERT. This means there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in 2018—around triple the normal likelihood. Similarly, in the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have started. When combined, these two events in spring increase the possibility of a dry and warm end to the year. It also raises the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south, but reduces the risk of tropical cyclone activity in the north. The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed in recent weeks due to weakening of the trade winds, while the Southern Oscillation Index has fallen to typical El Niño levels. Models suggest further warming of the Pacific is likely. Four of eight models predict El Niño thresholds will likely be exceeded in the coming months, with another two falling just short. In the Indian Ocean, there are signs that a positive IOD is currently underway. The IOD index has exceeded the threshold (+0.4 °C) for the last four weeks. However, these values must persist until November for it to be considered a positive IOD event. Model outlooks suggest positive IOD values are likely to continue through the austral spring, before returning to neutral values in late November to December.

Looks warm in Dec +1,Jan and Feb, neutral.But like you said it shows a more basin wide moderate Nino