jaxjagman

Auburn almost gave the game to NMS.You could tell by the brutal stretch in the SEC tourney they were getting tired at the end of the game.Not knocking NMS by all means,they are a good team.Winning 16 straight going into the game is nothing to snooze at in any conference. I can see the Kansas/Auburn game going either way.But if we play like we did yesterday,we will lose for sure. Tn should have a decent shot going to the final 4,think the toughest game will be Virginia.But you never know about the big dance,upsets will happen. Far as Auburn/Kansas goes..lol..We The winner will face NC,then more than likely Ky.This is a brutal division..IMHO, compared to the rest

Similar look from what the Euro seasonals show to what the RRWT shows through spring.What would look to be HP into the GOA and also HP off the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolina's.-PNA.

Basketball is such a strange sport.In football i always root for any SEC team or for that matter any other team losing.It's where rankings mean more than basketball.In basketball it comes down to the big dance and making the tourney.Rankings don't mean squat in basketball,it's how you play in the end.Everyone is equal has has that chance.

Harper was amazing during this tourney,when he plays good and don't turn the ball over we can beat anyone.Our D played great today causing you guys to have 17 turnovers compared to our 6.Thanks for the kudos.When it got down to about 10 minutes i was waiting on the melt down,you guys have a good team.We got the #5 seed and play New Mexico St then more than likely will be paying Kansas, Jeff's team.I was hoping to get higher than a #5 seed but it is what it is

Euro and GFS don't agree with each other,whats new, into the end of next weekend into the first part of the week after.Euro brings the LP basically through Tn while the GFS shows the system into the lower OV.Even if the GFS is right it looks more wind and hail. We seem to be close to avg. with tornadoes so far.Ironically the third best year was 2010 which was coming off of a strong Nino.I'm not really sure how much the tropics had to do with this.There looks to have been two tropical storms in 2010.Bonnie crossed Florida as a TS but weakened as it went into MS/LA as a depression.TS Richard went into Texas.But,there was no impact from a hurricane that year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_22–25,_2010

It would be nice looking into next spring.With valcano and the low solar cycle into next winter good luck with analogs.

MJO is into the the Maritime but weak signals.The problem with the Euro is with the tropical system(convection) as it moves the MJO back into the IO.GEFS looks more right to me as it looks to go into phase 4,5 and 6 and potentially into West.Hem./Africa towards the end of the month. Today there is a trough going through Korea which could give us some thunderstorms into next weekend.The next more bigger potential system right now looks more towards the end of the month,with a trough coming off Mongolia this Wednesday then down into Korea which builds a ridge over Japan.If things teleconnect right this could be a potential good severe.

Jamstec is updating,this would be"O-N-D" what it shows on this update, more neutral (negative) ENSO into winter

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 14 March 2019 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory Synopsis: Weak El Nino conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance). El Niño conditions strengthened during February 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1] and the associated atmospheric anomalies became increasingly well-defined. The SST index values in the Niño3, Niño3.4 and Niño4 regions all increased during February, with the latest weekly values near +1°C in each region [Fig. 2]. The anomalous upper-ocean heat content (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased appreciably during February [Fig. 3], due to an increase in above-average temperatures at depth in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Enhanced equatorial convection prevailed near the Date Line, while suppressed convection was observed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the far western and far eastern Pacific. The equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation Index values were both negative (-1.4 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with weak El Niño conditions. The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through the Northern Hemisphere early autumn 2019 [Fig. 6]. Given the recent downwelling Kelvin wave, and the increase in both the SSTs and subsurface ocean temperatures, most forecasters expect positive SST anomalies to persist across the central and eastern Pacific for at least the next several months. During that time, forecasters predict the SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region to remain between +0.5°C and +1.0°C, indicating weak El Niño conditions. However, because forecasts made during spring tend to be less accurate, the predicted chance that El Niño will persist beyond summer is currently about 50%. In summary, weak El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance); click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 April 2019.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from portions of the Southeast U.S. into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible along with large hail. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low over Iowa this morning will gradually evolve into an open wave as it lifts northeast across the Great Lakes today, while a trailing portion of the trough extends southwest into the central Plains. A deep (983 mb) surface low beneath the upper low will lift northeast as a trailing cold front moves rapidly across the TN/OH Valley region and the lower MS Valley. Collectively, these surface and upper-level features will result in a broad area of favorable vertical wind shear for severe storms. ...Southeast U.S. through Ohio Valley and Great Lakes... An expansive area of showers and thunderstorms associated with warm/moist advection within the warm sector was in progress at 13Z, and the effects of ongoing/early day precipitation casts some uncertainty on the details regarding severe potential today and tonight. In general, ongoing precipitation should weaken or lift northeast of the risk area by midday, with additional thunderstorm development in advance of the cold front by afternoon. Low-level moisture remains a limiting factor, with lower/mid 50s surface dew points expected as far north as OH/southeast Lower Michigan, and mid 60s/upper across the southeast states. Substantial cloud cover combined with modest mid-level lapse rates will temper instability, with MLCAPE ranging from 1000+ J/kg over the Southeast States, where more diabatic heating is possible and higher dewpoints will reside, to around 300-500 J/kg farther north into the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes. The impressive low/mid-level wind fields will result in deep-layer shear averaging 50 kts across the southeast to in excess of 80 kts across the OH Valley/Great Lakes, with low-level (0-1 km) SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2. Thunderstorms should redevelop or intensify in advance of the cold front this afternoon as large-scale ascent within the left exit region of a 100-kt jet streak approaches the OH/TN Valley region. Farther south, forcing becomes a bit more nebulous however a more favorable thermodynamic environment with lower CINH will be in place. Most CAM guidance maintains discrete or semi discrete storms initially, with a transition to a more linear structure across northern portions of the risk area with time due to stronger large-scale forcing. Primary storm modes for storms that can persist within the strong shear environment will be supercells and bowing segments, with a risk for damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail. Should a corridor of stronger heating/greater instability develop, confidence would increase regarding introduction of a significant tornado risk area given the very favorable background environment. This may be needed in later outlooks as the effects of ongoing precipitation is assessed. ..Bunting/Mosier.. 03/14/2019

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from a portion of the Southeast U.S. into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be possible along with some hail. ...Synopsis... A very strong upper jet will rotate through the base of a potent synoptic upper trough and into the middle MS Valley, Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes. Surface low within the exit region of this jet will develop northeastward and occlude over WI this afternoon. The trailing cold front will stretch from a surface low in IA early in the day southward through the lower MS Valley. This front will advance east reaching the lower Great Lakes southwest into the middle Gulf coast by the end of this period. ...Southeast U.S. through Ohio Valley and Great Lakes... Initial band of convection developing along warm conveyor belt from the TN Valley into the OH Valley will shift northeast and weaken early Thursday. However, ageostropic forcing accompanying an upstream jet exit region is already spreading through the Southern Plains, contributing to thunderstorms development along the front over northeast TX. This zone of ascent will continue to spread northeast during the early part of the day, and most models develop a secondary band of showers and thunderstorms over the middle MS Valley that shifts into the OH Valley by mid day. The timing and evolution of this early convection and areas of clouds complicate the forecast to some degree. Nevertheless, a corridor of mid-upper 50s dewpoints will advect north into the OH Valley along a strong low-level jet, with mid-upper 60s farther south across the Southeast States. MLCAPE should range from 1000+ J/kg over the Southeast States, where more diabatic heating is possible and higher dewpoints will reside, to around 500 J/kg farther north into the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes. Current indications are that additional thunderstorms will gradually intensify along and just ahead of the progressive front from the OH Valley southward into the TN Valley from late morning into the afternoon. The stronger forcing will exist along and north of the upper jet exit region over the OH Valley where instability will be more limited, while farther south weaker forcing will exist, but a destabilizing boundary layer and low-level convergence should be sufficient to initiate storms. Wind profiles will be very favorable for organized severe storms with 50+ kt effective bulk shear and 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. Both discrete supercells and line segments are possible with damaging wind and a few tornadoes the main threats, mainly from late morning through early evening. ..Dial/Gleason.. 03/14/2019

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of Mississippi and Alabama northward through central Tennessee and Kentucky into Indiana, western Ohio and southern Michigan. Damaging winds, hail and tornadoes will all be possible from midday through the evening hours. ...Synopsis... The intense mid/upper trough over the mid-MO Valley will continue to shift east/northeast toward the Great Lakes and eastern Ontario by Friday morning. This will maintain a roughly 80-100 kt southwesterly midlevel jet streak across the Lower Ohio Valley toward Lake Ontario. At the surface, a still strong but filling cyclone will spread northeast in tandem with the upper level trough, arriving in the vicinity of James Bay by Friday morning. As the low lifts northeast, a cold front, oriented south-southwest from eastern IA to central AR to near the TX Gulf Coast at the beginning of the period, will shift eastward across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley region by Thursday evening. ...Lower Ohio Valley Vicinity... A strong south/southwesterly low level jet will transport Gulf moisture fairly far northward for this time of year, with at least a narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints as far north as the Lower Ohio River, and low-to-mid 50s F dewpoints into southern Michigan. While the better quality moisture will remain confined to the Deep South, forcing for ascent and deep layer shear are much more impressive from the Ohio Valley into southern MI. Additionally, midlevel lapse rates are expected to steepen from KY/IN into MI as stronger height falls and colder temperatures aloft overspread the region ahead of a midlevel dryslot by midday. All of this combined leads to a narrow warm sector characterized by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, 6.5-7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates, impressive/large curved low level hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear. While this parameter space is more than capable of supporting widespread severe, including damaging winds and possible strong tornadoes, quite a bit of uncertainty still exists. This is due in part to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected in the Day 1/Wed period, with ongoing convection possible in warm advection regime at the start of the Day 2/Thu period. Impacts of this convection/residual cloud cover on destabilization, and how far/quickly the surface cold front progresses by Thursday morning makes for a quite conditional scenario. As a result, have opted to expand the Slight risk northward across the Mid-South into southern MI. Uncertainty and conditional nature of the threat will preclude higher probs at this time across parts of KY/IN/MI/OH, but potential certainly exists for a higher-end threat to materialize across this region, as implied by various CAMs in the 18-00z time frame. Observational and numerical guidance trends will be monitored closely. ...TN Valley toward the Central Gulf Coast... Poorer lapse rates and much weaker forcing is expected with southward extent as the upper trough ejects away from the region. Near-neutral height tendancies and warmer temperatures aloft will result in weaker lapse rates compared to further north. Still, deep layer shear (45+ kt effective shear) will remain more than capable of sustaining organized convection. With mid-to-upper 60s F dewpoints resulting in 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting bowing line segments or supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any sustained storms that can develop, but the lack of stronger forcing will generally limit storm coverage.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and an isolated tornado threat are expected to develop across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... Upper-level low pressure over southeast Colorado will deepen early Wednesday while lifting northeast towards southeast Nebraska late Wednesday night. Intense surface low pressure will remain vertically aligned with the upper system, resulting in very strong low/mid-level wind fields across the central/southern Plains east to the lower/mid-Mississippi Valley region. An occluded front will arc northeast from the surface low across Iowa by 00Z and then extend south/southwest as a cold front from eastern sections of Missouri into western Louisiana. ...East Texas/Arklatex to the mid-Mississippi Valley... Remnants of overnight linear MCS should continue to weaken this morning as instability diminishes with eastward extent, however an isolated severe gust will remain possible as stronger convective elements developing ahead of the gust front transport higher momentum air to the surface in the presence of a very strong (60 kt) low-level jet. Despite generally weak mid-level lapse rates, a narrow corridor of lower 60s surface dew points will contribute to surface-based instability of 500 to locally 1000 J/kg by late afternoon/evening just ahead of the cold front from the vicinity of southeast Missouri southward. Strong wind fields will result in deep-layer shear on the order of 60 kts, with curved low-level hodographs supportive of supercells and bowing segments. One limiting factor remains the lack of greater instability, and with large-scale lift shifting north of the area with time, there remains uncertainty regarding storm coverage. High-resolution guidance suggests that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorms with the cold front remains possible, along with more discrete thunderstorm development within the favorable shear-instability region preceding the front. Damaging winds will be primary threat with these storms, and some tornado potential will exist with the more discrete storms and QLCS circulations. No major changes have been made to the risk categories/probabilities with this outlook.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and an isolated tornado threat are expected to develop across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... Upper-level low pressure over southeast Colorado will deepen early Wednesday while lifting northeast towards southeast Nebraska late Wednesday night. Intense surface low pressure will remain vertically aligned with the upper system, resulting in very strong low/mid-level wind fields across the central/southern Plains east to the lower/mid-Mississippi Valley region. An occluded front will arc northeast from the surface low across Iowa by 00Z and then extend south/southwest as a cold front from eastern sections of Missouri into western Louisiana. ...East Texas/Arklatex to the mid-Mississippi Valley... Remnants of overnight linear MCS should continue to weaken this morning as instability diminishes with eastward extent, however an isolated severe gust will remain possible as stronger convective elements developing ahead of the gust front transport higher momentum air to the surface in the presence of a very strong (60 kt) low-level jet. Despite generally weak mid-level lapse rates, a narrow corridor of lower 60s surface dew points will contribute to surface-based instability of 500 to locally 1000 J/kg by late afternoon/evening just ahead of the cold front from the vicinity of southeast Missouri southward. Strong wind fields will result in deep-layer shear on the order of 60 kts, with curved low-level hodographs supportive of supercells and bowing segments. One limiting factor remains the lack of greater instability, and with large-scale lift shifting north of the area with time, there remains uncertainty regarding storm coverage. High-resolution guidance suggests that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorms with the cold front remains possible, along with more discrete thunderstorm development within the favorable shear-instability region preceding the front. Damaging winds will be primary threat with these storms, and some tornado potential will exist with the more discrete storms and QLCS circulations. No major changes have been made to the risk categories/probabilities with this outlook.

We are like a Jekyll and Hyde team.When we play good, we can beat anyone.When we play bad we can lose to anyone,don't matter who it is.I didn't get to watch much of the game.The gym my son had his comp. at today had terrible internet connection :(.Thanks for the props though.But if the game was played at yalls house the outcome probably would have been different. My son did well today which made my day today.He made the Tennessee All-Elite team,level 10's, Which is the highest level in gymnastics,before college

Been in Knoxville for my sons state gymnastics meet ,so i'll miss this one. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama. ...Synopsis... A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark. An intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK into the lower OH Valley by early evening. In the low levels, a surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight. A warm front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH Valley late. ...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys... A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower OH Valley today. At the start of the period, a couple of clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into eastern OK/western AR. Varying possible solutions are evident in model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over the Ark-La-Tex vicinity. Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL. Model guidance correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north (MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg farther south) but extreme low-level shear. Hodographs become very large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk area. It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level dry slot. If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential. A corridor of possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from the area. As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures capable primarily of damaging winds may occur.

ay 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2019 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement over the U.S. through Day 6 (Monday 3-11), with the main upper feature early in the period being a negatively-tilted upper trough that will move quickly out of the central and southern Plains, across the Upper Midwest, and into the Upper Great Lakes Day 4 (Saturday 3-9). As this system continues to progress into eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. Day 5 (Sunday 3-10), a strengthening trough farther west is progged to be digging southward along the West Coast, before shifting more eastward/inland Day 6. At this point, model agreement deteriorates significantly with eastward progression/evolution of this system, and thus forecast confidence remains low during the second half of the period. In the meantime, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to expand across a large area from eastern portions of the central and southern Plains early Day 4, eastward/northeastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday morning. Given the strength of this system, and the accompanying/strong kinematic field, risk for at least isolated severe storms remains evident -- including potential for damaging winds and some tornado risk. However, a primary limiting factor appears likely to be limited CAPE (in part due to the widespread convective development). As such, will maintain only 15% risk at this time, though strength of this system and accompanying deep-layer wind field warrants attention in future outlooks. Day 5, models suggest that continued cold frontal advance across the East Coast and Gulf Coast states will occur, with the front currently progged to reside near both the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts near the end of the Day 5 period. Ahead of the boundary, modest CAPE but strong shear is expected, warranting introduction of a 15% risk area from the central Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. With the front largely offshore by Day 6, a lull in severe weather risk is evident at this time, prior to the advance of the next western upper system.

GEFS and Euro want to kill the MJO off to fast,looks more progressive

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2019 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement through roughly Day 5 (Saturday 3-9), with respect to spatial positioning of the main synoptic features. The GFS remains the more aggressive model with respect to deepening of the upper trough as it crosses the Rockies Day 4 and the Plains Day 5, and thus likewise depicts a much stronger surface cyclone during the Day 5 period. Beyond Day 5, the faster GFS outpaces the slower ECMWF, to the degree that confidence in the potential for accuracy in a convective forecast beyond Day 5 is too low to warrant any areal inclusions. In the Day 4 to 5 time range, when model agreement is higher, it appears that elevated convection will evolve across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, and possibly northward into Nebraska. However, confidence is not high enough that any hail risk evident at this point warrants a Day 4 area. Day 5, a surface cold front is progged to sweep across the central and southern Plains and into Missouri/Arkansas through the day, and then quickly eastward across the Mississippi River into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight. While the strongest large-scale ascent is progged at this time to sweep across the Ozarks vicinity during the day, as the trough takes on a negative tilt, substantial questions remain as to the degree of moistening/destabilization that will be able to occur this far north. Greater severe risk may therefore remain farther south, from east Texas/Louisiana across the Lower Mississippi Valley region, and possibly into the central Gulf Coast states late. Aside from questions regarding instability, this appears likely to be a strongly dynamic system with strong flow/shear covering a broad area. As such, damaging winds, and potential for tornadoes, is evident at this time. At this time, a large 15% probability area will be issued centered on a north-south zone from Missouri to the Lower Mississippi Valley, with additional areal, and risk-level, refinements to be made in subsequent outlooks. ..Goss.. 03/05/2019

Yeah, i saw this.850-hpa zonal winds are showing another possible WWB upcoming

Per Tidbits.,3.4 is the strongest it's been with this Nino, today,if it's right.Sitting at +1.216.No sign of Nino going away soon.

ERTAF http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/