jaxjagman

I'll be in Alachua,Fl Saturday for my sons regional gymnastics meet.Of course his meet would be Saturday starting at 5PM

CanSIPS shows Nino lasting until March 2020(end of the run) and maybe beyond.Last ETA shows the waters are warm almost 100m down into the thermocline practically basin wide,with some cooler waters which was probably from the last KW upwelling,mainly around east of the IDL. The BOM update shows a Moderate Nino will peak around May/June then fall off

US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee 3 hrs · (ALL INFO IS PRELIMINARY & SUBJECT TO CHANGE!) After surveying the wind damage from the storms on Saturday March 30th, a NWS storm survey team has determined that an 8 mile long by 1 mile wide downburst (straight-line winds) caused the damage in and around Orlinda (Robertson County). Several barns in the area were damaged, a few homes lost shingles, and scattered trees were snapped and uprooted. Winds were estimated from 65 to 75 mph. Further south, it was determined that a small but severe microburst around 1 mile long by 300 yards wide caused the damage along John Lunn Road just south of Saturn Parkway in Spring Hill (Maury County). These damaging winds were associated with the RFD (rear flank downdraft) of the supercell thunderstorm that moved over the Spring Hill area. One barn was destroyed, several others were damaged, and numerous trees were snapped and uprooted. Winds were estimated up to 80 mph.

Be fun to watch the MJO upcoming.CFS looks like the MJO could get stronger about at the same time it would also seem to look like a DWKW towards the mid of Apill,but this could also be destructive interference from the ENSO along the IDL.Right now the MJO looks to come off Africa into wk.2 of April.

So weird looking.With the jet extension you see westerlies to the west with which looks to be HP into Bermuda/Florida and shortwaves rotating along a negative tilted trough.Try and figure this one out what the Euro shows..lol

Believe who was monitoring this site retired?I can't remember his name but i'd use caution using this site.

Storm fizzled out just east of Eagleville,maybe loss of diurnal heating is starting to factor in

Tornado shown is from the Centerville cell,weak rotation but it still is ongoing towards Murfreesboro

Storm around Olinda had reports of 70mph winds with pole and home damage,certainly could be str8 line winds but we'll see when they survey

Rotation with the tornado headed towards Spring Hill which is being shown

Tornado by Orlinda,really don't see rotation with this

Some rotation showing up into Kentucky and some weaker between Hohenwald and Centerville into Tn,finally seeing some storms though

Don't see nothing rotating,we're partly cloudy now with the sun out,Storm looks more depressive as we lost Okeke with a torn ACL that will need surgery.Such a freak non-contact injury

National Weather Service Nashville TN 250 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019 .DISCUSSION... Showers and storms have already fired up to the west along the MS and OH River Valleys, and models have that line of convection continuing across the mid state from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A strong upper level trough will progress eastward today, and drag a strong cold front through the area late this afternoon and evening. Consensus between the models shows decent instability, with MLCAPE values in the 400-1000 J/Kg range, and 0-6km deep layer shear around 50 to 60 knots. 0-1km shear is moderately strong as well, with values around 20 to 30 knots. Sounding analysis shows strong low level curvature in the hodographs, which would not only support rotating updrafts but even support some isolated tornado potential as well. 0-1km and 0-3km helicity values are also strong as expected with great low level curvature in the hodographs. With the approaching cold front providing the lift to keep convection ongoing through the area, and with the instability/shear environment in place, the main threat with any strong to severe thunderstorms would be damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Mid level lapse rates do briefly support some hail potential as well, and would be more likely should any isolated cells develop ahead of the main line of convection. After the front passes through the area from west to east during the evening, severe potential will fall off rapidly as cold air settles in near the surface and decreases surface based instability.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible through 10 PM CDT across portions of Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama. Expected hazards include isolated to scattered damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes. ...Discussion... Instability has been slow to develop across the risk area, due to widespread cloud cover limiting heating, and dewpoints running a bit lower than most model forecasts. Still, the overall forecast appears reasonable, in terms of risk level and areal extent. Therefore, aside from a few tweaks to the thunder line, no substantial changes to the outlook are needed at this time, with isolated severe risk expected to evolve over the next 1-2 hours. ..Goss.. 03/30/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019/ ...MS/TN/KY/AL... Primary changes are to shift wind probabilities north/east across KY, and increase/expand tornado/hail probabilities. These changes result in a net expansion of the Slight and Marginal Risks. A shortwave trough near Kansas City will move east across the Midwest while amplification of a separate trough occurs upstream over the Upper Great Lakes region through tonight. Surface wave over far southern IL will deepen as it approaches the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant stout cold front will push southeast likely passing a line from Columbus, OH to Lake Charles by 00Z. Upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points will be common ahead of the front from the Mid-South southward where moderate boundary-layer heating in cloud breaks will drive MLCAPE values to 500-1000 J/kg. An increasingly narrow/more marginal moisture plume will exist farther north and eventually be occluded by the impinging cold front. Forcing for ascent will be focused in a band near the front, stronger north than south, which suggests predominately linear/cluster mode north and a mix of discrete cells/clusters south as storms mature towards late afternoon. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for splitting supercells with relatively long hodographs, and moderate low-level hodograph curvature. The greatest combined probabilities should exist surrounding the TN/MS/AL border region where all hazards are possible but large hail may be the primary threat given the remnant elevated mixed layer and potential dominance of left-mover supercells as suggested by most HREF members. Isolated to scattered damaging winds will be the primary concern with northern extent. The severe threat will wane after sunset and should cease by late evening.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MS...NORTHWEST AL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across a portion of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Damaging wind should be the primary threat, though hail also is possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Midwest today. A cold front extending from northern IN southwestward into north TX will shift eastward through the period, extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf Coast by Sunday morning. Elevated convection will be ongoing this morning on the cool side of the frontal boundary in isentropic ascent from eastern OK into southern IN. Further south, an elevated mixed layer from TX into the Lower MS Valley vicinity will limit convection for most of the morning across the Deep South to central KY. Modest boundary layer moisture with dewpoints from the upper 50s to lower 60s F will extend from the lower MS Valley toward the TN Valley, with low to mid-50s F northward toward the lower OH Valley vicinity. The EML is expected to erode by mid-to-late afternoon as stronger forcing along the front encroaches on better warm sector environment. Strong to severe storms are possible along the front from the afternoon into the evening, with hail and strong wind gusts being the main concern. ...Lower MS Valley to Middle TN... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s F north to mid 70s F south. This will lead to mixing of modest boundary layer moisture and only weak destabilization (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) forecast. Convection is expected to develop as increasing ascent along the front aids in erosion of the weak EML. Higher cloud bases (LCLs around 2-3 kft) resulting from boundary layer mixing will aid in development of some strong, possibly damaging, wind gusts as low level flow increases to 35+ kt around 2-4 kft. Nearly unidirectional vertical shear also will favor linear/bowing line segments, though some weak directional shear from south-central TN into central MS could result in some rotating structures in strongest storms. This could further enhance wind damage potential via mesovortex processes. Midlevel lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km also are expected to support severe hail in stronger updrafts. Tornado potential appears low at this time given poor quality boundary layer moisture and lack of stronger low level directional shear. ...Western/Central KY Vicinity... Boundary layer moisture will be even more meager further north, and 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. However, stronger forcing along the front should still aid in development of some semi-organized linear structures. Where pockets of stronger heating can occur, 40-50 kt winds around 1.5 kft could aid in strong wind gusts and modest midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.0 C/km may support some small hail in stronger updrafts. Overall threat is expected to remain marginal in the absence of better low level moisture and stronger destabilization.

East Asia looks active the next several days.The jet extension as the MJO passes into/through the PAC should keep us into a more wet pattern until it breaks down.So there still looks to be systems tomorrow,week one and another in wk.2 of April.After this there would be uncertain into the longer range where the MJO is.The GEPS and GEFS shows the pineapple express (troughs)stopping through East Asia into wk 2 of April

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across a portion of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Isolated damaging wind should be the primary threat. ...Lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... Shortwave trough now moving through the central Rockies will continue into the central Plains early Saturday, before reaching the middle MS Valley and western portions of the TN and OH Valleys late Saturday afternoon and evening. In response to this feature, a surface low will develop over the middle MS Valley along a front and continue northeast into the OH Valley. Trailing cold front will move southeast through the lower MS and TN Valley regions during the afternoon into the evening. A corridor of modified continental polar air with upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints will advect through the pre-frontal warm sector beneath modest mid-level lapse rates. This in conjunction with modest diabatic warming of the surface layer will contribute to marginal instability with MLCAPE from near 500 J/kg over southern portions of the OH Valley to 1000 J/kg over the lower MS Valley. Current indications are that a remnant mid-level capping inversion will probably limit thunderstorm development in warm sector. However, forcing within frontal zone should be sufficient to initiate storms as it intercepts the destabilizing boundary layer. Wind profiles with 40-50 kt 0-6 km shear will support potential for organized structures within the line including bowing segments and possibly a few embedded rotating updrafts. Given potential limiting factors imposed by an expected overall marginal thermodynamic environment, will maintain marginal risk category for this outlook, but a slight risk might be needed in day 1 updates.

Tomorrow's storm doesn't look to be as +titled as what's been shown.Better instability especially towards the SW portion of the Valley.Wouldn't surprise me to at least see this area upgraded to a slight risk the next update.SREF now has a 15% tornado risk in areas west of I-65.

Looks more like the East Asia Rule, ridge off of Japan and a Mid Atlantic/NE Region ridge,if it were to teleconnect right,it's a wet pattern in the Valley/SE.You'd probably see HP around Bermuda into Florida,which would have a chance of tropical genesis into the GOM during this time frame.

Not a whole lot showing.After the WWB showing up around the the end of the month,nothing exciting right now after this.The MJO signal looks even more murky after it hits Africa upcoming

Back in 2015 we saw a monster DWKW in which was around this time frame that led into a Super Nino into the winter months.This has nothing to do with a forecast,just bringing back memories

KW passed through where the warmer thermocline is being shown which brought warmer temps to the surface.MJO even though it shows weak signals should pass through this region upcoming.

You want the MJO to have strong signals coming off Africa and into the IO and beyond.Similar to what shows,least right now.You're also in a +GWO/AAM,So you take this out of a forecast,think Jeff mentioned this above.It still seems possible this could be a crap season with the ENSO.I voted 1.2k to 1.3k but i can see this going below..IMHO.It only takes one big storm to make up a deficit,but will it happen?

Looks like a chance of thunderstorms,not really exciting tho from a weak system Sunday into Monday.GFS has even backed down this afternoon with any wind/ hail. Next system for the Valley should be towards the end of the month still and the next should be into week one of April Beyond this we should see what happens with the MJO.The Euro now shows the MJO going now into phase 6 as it has been seeing destructive interference from the ENSO,though weak signals into the COD.So far it still looks like the MJO will be going into phase 7& 8 into the first of April.The Valley shortly after this time frame is starting to get/or is into peak severe season.So all eyes should be watching how amped the MJO gets into the IO and if it stays strong.