jaxjagman

Looks like that last KW did a job trying to upwell those cooler waters towards the surface,east of the IDL,still deep into the thermocline,at this point

Should see a warm up i'd think into 3.4 upcoming

Marginal risk day 3.I'm starting to think the best chance of severe storms will come after this.Wed-Thursday. both the GFS and Euro are showing LP system going into the Mo Valley.This should in turn strenghten the LLJ.Both models though show this,right now anyways some sort of shortwave,trough, coming through the Valley during this time.Trying to pin point shortwaves though at his time would be kinda tough

Maybe some decent storms for guys in the east Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POCKETS OF THE COUNTRY FROM WEST TX TO NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across pockets of the US from west Texas to coastal Carolinas. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Discussion... Latest short-range model guidance continues to suggest a notable mid-level speed max will dig southeast across the High Plains into the base of central US trough over northern MS by 13/00z. This feature will eject into the southern Appalachians during the overnight hours along with an attendant increase in large-scale forcing for ascent. Early in the period, convection is expected to be ongoing along a cold front across the lower MO Valley into northeast OK. Strong heating ahead of the wind shift is expected to aid buoyancy through steepening lapse rates across the Ozarks, primarily north of aforementioned digging jet. Will maintain 5% severe probs across this region due to dryer than normal boundary layer. A few strong storms may also develop along the surging front across portions of west TX where strong heating should remove CINH. Downstream, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will advance north across the eastern TN Valley around the western periphery of wedge front in the lee of the Appalachians. Latest guidance suggest surface heating should aid buoyancy along a corridor from northeast AL into southeast IN. As exit region of approaching jet affects this zone of instability, convection should readily develop by early evening. Given the strength of the sharpening trough, there is some concern severe probs may need to be raised to account for this increasingly dynamic system. As mid-level heights fall across the southern Appalachians during the latter half of the period, a surface wave should evolve along coastal front over southeast GA/southern SC. This feature should lift north-northeast and may allow more moist/buoyant air mass to return to eastern NC. Will introduce 5% severe probs to account for convection that should develop within an increasingly sheared environment during the overnight hours. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal

Models are killing off the MJO to fast,typical bias with the ENSO,If this were into the summer time(More around July) we'd probably see a big warm up in the Valley.

NMME, basically looks weak Nino basinwide,probably would last through the winter.if it were to be right

ENSO is getting a second wind,those cooler waters that has been showing into the thermocline are getting mixed out. I suspect also as the MJO gets into the Maritime you might see these WWB get picked up and get stronger than what they have been showing towards the middle of June.Typical models wanting to kill off the MJO to quick with the ENSO

Waters have cooled towards the surface mainly into regions 3.But there still seems to be a decent WWB which should or could warm those surface temps back up upcoming

Jamstec shows Nino not lasting but a couple more months and basically neutral through the first part of winter.It shows BN for the 2m's for D-J-F for the Valley,more of a front loaded winter i'd imagine.There is alot of spread from it's ensembles,so i'd use this with caution The waters are getting cooler down into the thermocline,especially into region 3

Picked my son up from college Thursday morning.When i got close to the Tn/Al line i saw my first accident in Tn before the state line.As i went trough into N/ Al it was like a war zone.I saw cars flipped on their roofs,on their side,etc.etc,multiple accidents and some real bad looking ones.I wasn't going to stop and detour but there was some good storms that went through

Sure don't look as good today,glad i didn't start a thread.Best chance of severe storms would seem to be Thursday right now

Be interesting if the Euro is right into next weekend. Next Saturday the trough goes negative tilt with a potent shortwave coming through the Tn Valley,this would enhance an impressive LLJ if it were true

This period still looks good,still some timing differences along with some potential VBV and other junk as well.We'll probably need a short term severe thread upcoming, still some timing differences but all seems like right now we could be dealing with all severe modes upcoming,starting around mid week possibly into next weekend.

This date back in 2002 there was an F3 tornado go through Rutherford and Cannon,TN(counties).This was one of two F3's that came through Middle Tn that said year.In Nov. another F3 went through Cumberland, county that claimed four lives with that storm

CIPS shows some potential severe storms around the middle of next week,mainly hail and wind.LL/Shear looks weak with some sad looking hodos right now per GFS, Believe there will be a better system as the models continue to show a trough going through S/Korea,so maybe we'll see some better storms around the 8th give or take like the GFS is showing,right now.

Seasonal models to me are just for discussion ,you more than likely will see changes until a couple months out.But even the tri-monthlies from the NMME's the skill level is still not that fantastic.Just look at "JFM" this year at the 2m's and look at the OBS top right

Analogs are hard to figure out much less back into 1933-34 winter.This was a different time era you could say just as well.1933-1934 was basically in a moderate Nina.The oceans down in the depth into the thermocline right now would most certainly disagree with this into next winter.If anything this unless some massive DWKW comes along this looks to me a more neutral ENSO.Was this year in 1933-34 with a SSWE ?Not sure.Though you could make a case possibly next winter as the low solar peaks out upcoming, with a potential more Nina,but Ninas generally don't play nice in the Valley during winter.

Enso regions have been more or less flat lined the past several days with maybe the exception of region 3 per tidbits,suspect we'll start to see a change upcoming as there looks to be an active KW starting up east of the IDL around 90E where there is a Rossby Wave on going.Should see warming get pulled up to the surface in region 4 upcoming

MJO is moving but slowly by the looks.Even though the RMM'S shows it going into the COD,it should be getting into the Maritime upcoming .We don't see the same pattern back into late winter with the decent WWB's..The SST'S are still warm and any KW that has come along has been to weak to have much if any influence on this,though you can certainly see cooler waters further down into the thermocline it will still take awhile to mix those warmer waters out closer to the surface. These systems coming through East Asia look weak,and also more ridging into China and Korea,probably more MJO.Euro keeps wanting to build an Omega into the Bering Sea long range.It's not very exciting right now the next several days

Jamstec,looks more SERish right now for next winter.(-)neutral ENSO

Nino has been weakening the past few weeks,still looks fairly warm down to around 100m into the thermocline

CIPS shows the best tornado risk in the SW portion of the Valley,Thursday.Not very many good analogs with this system, for the Valley anyways.

The MJO looks like it's going to show face upcoming into the IO but then potentially go hide back into the COD around the last week of April with some potential ENSO destructive interference it seems.The SOI around the 9-12th of April dropped around 40 points from a more Nina to a Nino pattern.Looks to me we should potentially see a decent system into the first week of May coming off East Asia the last week of April,how teleconnections work out is another thing.

We probably need a thread

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes -- some potentially strong to violent (EF2+) -- are possible today from east Texas to central Mississippi. Otherwise, numerous severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes from central Texas this morning to the Tennessee Valley region overnight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a leading/northern-stream perturbation will eject northeastward across from its present position over Lake Superior and northern Ontario, across Quebec. To the southwest, a deep, high-amplitude trough is evident in moisture channel imagery over NM, far west TX, and northern MX. This trough will pivot east-northeastward today, developing a closed 500-mb low by 00Z near the DFW Metroplex, and extending southwestward across Coahuila. By 12Z, that low should reach eastern MO, with trough southwestward over the Arklatex to deep south TX. At the surface, the 11Z analysis showed the primary surface low along a band of convection south of SJT. A double structure was apparent to baroclinic zones to its east: the first a quasistationary front across central TX to near a SHV-CBM-CHA axis. The southern front was quasistationary just south of UVA and SAT, becoming a warm front over southeast TX and south-central LA, then quasistationary again over coastal AL and coastal western FL Panhandle. The primary surface low should deepen and cross the Arklatex region late this afternoon into early evening, reaching the lower Ohio Valley around EVV by 12Z. The southern is expected to accelerate northward from mid/late morning, to and perhaps past the I-20 corridor in northeast TX and LA, then over Mississippi, likely merging with the northern one. By that time, a cold front should extend from the low south-southwestward across the MS Coast area, likely preceded by an organized quasi-linear MCS over the Deep South. ...TX to Lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and TN Valley... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms, with the main concern being damaging tornadoes, still appears possible today in and near the categorical moderate-risk area. Only peripheral adjustments were needed for this outlook package, based on convective trends this morning and (on the eastern edge) continuity of overnight severe potential into the early day-2 period. Strong-severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Hill Country southward toward the Rio Grande. This convection will pose a severe threat into central TX through the rest of the morning. Refer to SPC watches 48-49 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term details. East of the ongoing activity, the parameter space will become very supportive of supercell/tornado potential through the day in the warm sector, with the main uncertainties being longevity and discreteness of favorable storm mode. As the southern front moves farther inland, a deeply moist boundary layer will spread across the region, with surface dew points commonly in the mid/upper 60s F and locally near 70, PW 1.5-1.75 inches, and mean mixing ratios increasing to 15-16 g/kg, with forecast soundings showing favorably low LCL. Gradual diabatic heating in pockets will weaken already meager MLCINH from midmorning onward, enabling storm formation on pre-MCS sources for weak lift such as confluence/convergence lines, and perhaps persistent/relatively deep horizontal convective rolls. Lapse rates will strengthen with westward extent, supporting preconvective MLCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of east TX to 1000-2000 J/kg over portions of LA and MS. Such buoyancy will be more than favorable for all forms of severe, amidst strengthening deep shear related to the approach of the mid/upper trough. Furthermore, low-level shear vectors and hodograph sizes will be quite large along and south of the warm front, with forecast soundings yielding 250-600 J/kg effective SRH. Any sustained supercells in this environment will be capable of significant tornadoes. With time this evening and overnight, convection should organize into a roughly north/south-aligned band over the lower Mississippi Valley region, as deep convergence becomes better-focused in the mass response ahead of the synoptic wave. As this occurs, the main threat in a bulk sense may become damaging wind tonight. However, given the strong inflow-layer SRH, tornadoes still will be probable from both embedded supercells and QLCS mesovortices. ...Central/eastern NC and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, offering the potential for damaging gusts -- perhaps reaching severe limits on an isolated basis -- and isolated severe hail. Mid/upper-level support will be lacking, beneath a belt of southwesterlies aloft. However, diabatic surface heating amidst weak ambient MLCINH should enable only weak lift necessary to initiate convection. The area will straddle a low-level moist axis characterized by surface dew points generally in the mid/upper 60s F, supporting peak preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Though low-level flow will be weak, limiting boundary-layer shear and hodograph size, the height gradient will remain sufficiently tight aloft to support strong storm-relative/ventilating winds in upper levels, and effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt. As such, a few organized multicells and sporadic supercell structures will be possible. Convective potential will be strongly tied to the diurnal cycle, and should wane precipitously after 00Z. ..Edwards/Wendt.. 04/13/2019