jaxjagman

NMME, basically looks weak Nino basinwide,probably would last through the winter.if it were to be right

Not much thunder here,matter of fact we've cleared out mostly https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES16&initsattype=swir&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=533&initrange=55.000000000000:-145.000000000000:0:-15.000000000000&initloop=False&initnframes=20&initlightning16=On&initlightning17=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=Off&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off

ENSO is getting a second wind,those cooler waters that has been showing into the thermocline are getting mixed out. I suspect also as the MJO gets into the Maritime you might see these WWB get picked up and get stronger than what they have been showing towards the middle of June.Typical models wanting to kill off the MJO to quick with the ENSO

One thing to look at which could give the GFS more credence, to me anyways.Around Wednesday upcoming there is weak ridging building up in East Asia,into the Yellow Sea and S/Korea,this would seem to potentially bring an area of HP in the east and maybe even into the TN Valley some where around the 12th or 13th,but this should get kicked out rather quickly and another trough in the east shortly after

Euro shows us another different pattern to ponder this afternoon.The LP gets cut off around Mid Tn and then retrogrades back southwards.This would be a good rain maker for us here in the Mid Valley,if it were to actually happen.But i'm sure we'll see more changes upcoming.I'm starting to lean towards the GFS as it seems to show less volatility upcoming with the pattern,but who knows? ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JUN02 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 12Z 02-JUN 21.3 567 140 SUN 18Z 02-JUN 0.00 30.2 570 141 MON 00Z 03-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.4 570 141 MON 06Z 03-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.2 567 139 MON 12Z 03-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.1 565 138 MON 18Z 03-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.2 566 139 TUE 00Z 04-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.0 569 140 TUE 06Z 04-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.8 568 139 TUE 12Z 04-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.6 569 140 TUE 18Z 04-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.2 572 142 WED 00Z 05-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.8 574 143 WED 06Z 05-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.6 574 143 WED 12Z 05-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.3 573 142 WED 18Z 05-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 31.2 574 142 THU 00Z 06-JUN 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.03 27.1 574 142 THU 06Z 06-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.04 23.4 573 142 THU 12Z 06-JUN 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.07 21.9 571 140 THU 18Z 06-JUN 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.19 24.8 572 140 FRI 00Z 07-JUN 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.23 24.3 574 141 FRI 06Z 07-JUN 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.27 22.0 573 141 FRI 12Z 07-JUN 0.17 0.04 0.00 0.44 21.4 572 140 FRI 18Z 07-JUN 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.74 22.7 573 141 SAT 00Z 08-JUN 0.28 0.03 0.00 1.03 23.4 575 141 SAT 06Z 08-JUN 0.15 0.10 0.00 1.18 21.1 573 140 SAT 12Z 08-JUN 0.08 0.05 0.00 1.26 20.9 572 140 SAT 18Z 08-JUN 0.05 0.03 0.00 1.30 26.2 574 141 SUN 00Z 09-JUN 0.24 0.17 0.00 1.54 22.6 574 140 SUN 06Z 09-JUN 0.17 0.07 0.00 1.71 21.2 573 140 SUN 12Z 09-JUN 0.41 0.04 0.00 2.12 21.4 573 140 SUN 18Z 09-JUN 0.60 0.10 0.00 2.71 22.1 573 140 MON 00Z 10-JUN 0.22 0.10 0.00 2.93 21.9 574 140 MON 06Z 10-JUN 0.12 0.05 0.00 3.05 21.1 575 140 MON 12Z 10-JUN 0.43 0.10 0.00 3.48 21.1 574 140 MON 18Z 10-JUN 0.33 0.11 0.00 3.81 23.4 574 140 TUE 00Z 11-JUN 0.52 0.27 0.00 4.33 21.5 573 140 TUE 06Z 11-JUN 0.37 0.05 0.00 4.70 19.9 572 140 TUE 12Z 11-JUN 0.29 0.06 0.00 4.99 18.6 570 139 TUE 18Z 11-JUN 0.21 0.03 0.00 5.20 21.1 570 138 WED 00Z 12-JUN 0.02 0.01 0.00 5.22 20.1 569 138 WED 06Z 12-JUN 0.01 0.00 0.00 5.23 17.8 569 137 WED 12Z 12-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.23 16.8 567 137

Euro today around day 6 cuts the low off as the upper ridging in Canada starts to strengthen so it just meanders around Tn./Ark and N/Ms,by day 10 it's still sitting in East Ark with nothing to kick it out.But by day 10 it starts to look like the ridge starts shifting east tho.Just another scenario to ponder

Wonder what the PW record is in June is for any part of the Valley with out a tropical system effecting us?That would actually be pretty cool looking if you like some good thunderstorms,if not turn your head with SBCAPES well over 5k and lapse rates 7.5 with no cap and TT'S over 56.You gotta love long range models shows some loving for us,next run it might be clear It's still not often you see this even in fantasy land in the summer,especially with the PW's in any part of the Valley.

So far,so good. The upcoming pattern looks wet,especially starting around mid week and beyond.The Euro this afternoon closes off the 5H some where into the S/Plains as does the GFS and slowly moves eastward.This should set the stage for shortwaves to rotate around it into the Valley through the long range.East Asia even up to 10-days still shows troughs going through Let's hope we see some good rains upcoming,most of all the Middle Valley is showing abnormal rains by the drought monitor.The MJO by the Euro and GEFS wants to weaken it but this could be more ENSO and it could possibly stay out of the COD.But we should really warm up upcoming the next few weeks seemingly If for some reason we don't see much of any rains(doubt we don't) the EDDI ,especially for you guys in the Eastern Valley shows a potential "Flash"drought and fire risk upcoming the next few weeks

Weeklies look quite warm into the 2nd week of June.You go chasing these last several days?

This afternoons Euro shows into the mid week the ridge starts to break down and gets shunted eastward,so the above normal 2m's will last until mid week ,as the ridge gets shifted eastward we should start to be looking at more seasonal 2m's with the return of rain once again.We certainly could use some rain.I posted some text of what the Euro shows this afternoon in our area just as an example.I wouldn't be to focused on one part of the Valley in the long range.. In the extended look it SO FAR looks about the same.No big warm up.The MJO looks strong as it gets into the IO and possibly into the Maritime.We saw the GEFS and Euro kill off the MJO to fast it's last pass,ENSO.So we'll see. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z MAY26 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 12Z 26-MAY 72.9 64.8 22004 53 SUN 18Z 26-MAY 90.9 72.9 91.0 57.8 24009 30 MON 00Z 27-MAY 92.2 83.7 83.1 62.8 33006 0.00 0.00 26 MON 06Z 27-MAY 83.1 71.0 72.1 65.7 35002 0.00 0.00 98 MON 12Z 27-MAY 72.3 65.8 70.8 65.2 15003 0.00 0.00 34 MON 18Z 27-MAY 91.2 70.8 91.3 62.7 24007 0.00 0.00 29 TUE 00Z 28-MAY 92.3 86.1 85.6 69.4 26003 0.00 0.00 69 TUE 06Z 28-MAY 86.0 72.8 72.9 63.2 23005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 28-MAY 73.0 69.4 73.1 66.2 21005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 28-MAY 90.6 73.1 90.8 59.3 24008 0.00 0.00 35 WED 00Z 29-MAY 93.0 86.7 86.1 63.9 21005 0.00 0.00 2 WED 06Z 29-MAY 86.1 75.3 75.1 60.2 23005 0.00 0.00 93 WED 12Z 29-MAY 75.2 70.8 73.9 60.5 20006 0.00 0.00 62 WED 18Z 29-MAY 93.0 73.9 93.2 51.5 22010 0.00 0.00 8 THU 00Z 30-MAY 95.0 87.6 86.8 57.8 24004 0.00 0.00 78 THU 06Z 30-MAY 86.8 70.4 70.4 58.8 20002 0.00 0.00 100 THU 12Z 30-MAY 71.6 68.4 71.7 58.9 18005 0.00 0.00 87 THU 18Z 30-MAY 85.9 71.7 86.1 59.6 22011 0.00 0.00 96 FRI 00Z 31-MAY 89.6 78.9 78.8 67.7 27006 0.03 0.00 38 FRI 06Z 31-MAY 78.8 70.4 70.3 66.8 30004 0.00 0.00 28 FRI 12Z 31-MAY 70.3 67.6 69.7 61.8 31003 0.00 0.00 98 FRI 18Z 31-MAY 82.9 69.7 83.0 56.7 29005 0.00 0.00 47 SAT 00Z 01-JUN 84.9 79.6 79.1 57.0 33004 0.00 0.00 44 SAT 06Z 01-JUN 79.1 67.5 67.3 59.9 31004 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 12Z 01-JUN 67.7 62.9 67.9 61.2 29003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 01-JUN 85.6 67.9 85.9 55.4 28004 0.00 0.00 10 SUN 00Z 02-JUN 88.9 84.4 83.7 59.0 25003 0.00 0.00 100 SUN 06Z 02-JUN 83.7 70.6 70.5 58.7 25005 0.00 0.00 96 SUN 12Z 02-JUN 72.1 68.6 71.3 63.5 21005 0.02 0.00 55 SUN 18Z 02-JUN 87.3 71.3 87.4 67.1 25005 0.01 0.00 46 MON 00Z 03-JUN 87.8 75.7 76.3 72.5 22000 0.21 0.00 47 MON 06Z 03-JUN 76.3 69.5 69.5 68.8 22003 0.00 0.00 72 MON 12Z 03-JUN 70.3 67.8 70.7 69.0 15002 0.00 0.00 100 MON 18Z 03-JUN 83.0 70.7 83.2 69.4 21004 0.04 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 04-JUN 85.2 74.4 74.3 72.9 03001 0.16 0.00 99 TUE 06Z 04-JUN 74.3 69.0 68.9 68.5 27003 0.09 0.00 99 TUE 12Z 04-JUN 69.9 68.1 69.9 69.5 21002 0.05 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 04-JUN 80.8 69.9 81.0 71.0 25002 0.05 0.00 99 WED 00Z 05-JUN 81.9 74.5 75.7 72.3 13002 0.10 0.00 98 WED 06Z 05-JUN 75.7 70.6 70.8 70.2 15002 0.01 0.00 100 WED 12Z 05-JUN 71.0 68.5 69.1 68.6 15003 0.18 0.00 99

It still looks healthy to me,right now.The surface temps look better recently, from a KW earlier in the month.There is also an on going KW that is around the IDL right now which looks stronger than the last one.Not really sure about winter time quite yet.We should have a better pic upcoming as summer goes on.

We should see a ever so slightly warm up into next weekend,around that time as the heights build up into East Asia yesterday and today,it shouldnt last long but a day or two,the heights in East Asia are fixing to crumble,we should see basically seasonal to even BN some days,maybe we'll even see some afternoon thunderstorms at least

Everything seems to be on que,chances for record breaking heatwave into the first part of next week for this time of year for parts of the Valley.Still looks like the SER will start gettting kicked to the east sometimes around the mid week upcoming,this should put us into a more rain chance pattern with at least more seasonal 2m's upcoming The last drought monitor showed it's first signs into the Valley recently with abnormal rain fall around/MS/AL/TN,no drought, just abnormal rains. Don't really see any heat wave upcoming after this,for awhile anyways.MJO is getting into the IO upcoming.MJO really stalled out recently into phase eight,it has barley budged the last 9-days,so we;ll see how it acts upcoming.Weeklies are starting to look warm again at the end of it's run lately

Euro continues to show a stronger ridge.The PNA would suggest a SER on the GEFS.The MJO yesterday entered phase 8 which shouldn't be a SER though depending on lag time.Tomorrow there is a trough going through East Asia with an Upper low into East China so there would seem to be an Upper low into the Upper Plains/OV with some sorta trough in the east,makes me think the GFS might be more right with the thermals.If for some reason the Euro is right there should be some risk of breaking high temps as well as high/lows into the late next weekend into the first part of the next week for parts of the Valley

You want a trough to teleconnect with the Valley from East Asia this would be it,sad thing it's far out and will probably shift into China,but this would be potentially nice

Nothing but a suck pattern upcoming,ridge even looks stronger from a 588dm to a 591 dm tonight,,argggg.We should have a good system though into the 1st week of June,it should kick the ridge off to the east,there is nothing dirty about it in the mean time

This pattern seems to be more ENSO driven.Most analogs would show the Valley to be more into a dirty ridge with plenty of QPF'S as the MJO comes off phase 7, with lag time.Surely don't look like it.The MJO is fixing to really slow down by the looks before it gets into the IO and into the IO so we'll see what happens later on

Yeah i'm with you,i don't have a great feeling about this summer.Even the MJO where it sits at right now we shouldn't be looking at any SER

If we don't see any rain upcoming the next couple days we probably wont see much of anything until the week after next when the models are showing a trough going through East Asia in 3 to 4 days.The Euro has a ridge centered into the Valley around the latter part of next weekend maybe into the following week

Waters have cooled towards the surface mainly into regions 3.But there still seems to be a decent WWB which should or could warm those surface temps back up upcoming

Jamstec shows Nino not lasting but a couple more months and basically neutral through the first part of winter.It shows BN for the 2m's for D-J-F for the Valley,more of a front loaded winter i'd imagine.There is alot of spread from it's ensembles,so i'd use this with caution The waters are getting cooler down into the thermocline,especially into region 3

Back into the earlier century sunspots were more short lived it seems.They generally seemed to last no longer than a couple years at low min.As we seemed to get into the late 2000's sunspots min have seemed to last longer than the past,maybe the models are wrong most certainlywith the upcoming one,but is this a trend we are seeing?

Low solar cycle though is low is diving down this winter and more into next winter,surprised though it's lasting as long as it's showing,suspect it's not going to be right

Picked my son up from college Thursday morning.When i got close to the Tn/Al line i saw my first accident in Tn before the state line.As i went trough into N/ Al it was like a war zone.I saw cars flipped on their roofs,on their side,etc.etc,multiple accidents and some real bad looking ones.I wasn't going to stop and detour but there was some good storms that went through

NMME's basically look like a neutral though positive ENSO into O-N-D.One odd ball would be GOES-5,starting a potential Nina into fall,so you know this would be an "AN",2M look.But as always you should be skeptical in long range forecast of seasonals,sure you think the same way.Plus this would be more fall than winter East Asia had a trough go through a day or two ago,i'd think there would be a system coming through potentially effecting the Valley past the mid month even tho the models don't really show it right now,we'll see. The MJO possibly get into the IO possibly towards the end of the month,though this looks even conflicting