jaxjagman

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

I know.

Been looking like this Nino would last longer than what has been being shown.The last several days the waters have warmed into the thermocline around the IDL.The seasonals keep pushing it back and back and now it looks like the potential it will last through summer time

ONI updated "SON" SITS AT 0.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7

Tidbits continues to be to cool with the ENSO.What it seems to be doing is showing the passing of the MJO and clouds/convection.Not sure i'd use this for a few days.The last KW got warmer into 3 and also showing signs of more warning into the thermocline around the IDL on the T/TTITON,but it'd take sometime for those waters to get pulled to the surface,kinda of a moot point right now it seems.It still looks like this is more Central/east based not Modoki,but you could argue this is more east.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Nov 27 2018 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Though minor differences in amplitude exist, ensemble members are in good agreement regarding a progressive shortwave trough that is forecast to advance through the lower MS and TN Valley regions Friday night (day 4) into Early Saturday (day 5). Modifying air from the Gulf with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will advect through the lower MS Valley warm sector Friday resulting in marginal near-surface based CAPE within a weak lapse rate environment. Areas of clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms will likely be in progress along warm conveyor belt during the day, and this lowers confidence in degree of destabilization. Winds aloft and vertical shear will strengthen overnight, becoming supportive of organized storms including supercells with damaging wind and a few tornadoes possible. For Saturday (day 5) though some severe threat may linger ahead of the advancing cold front from the Gulf Coast states into a portion of the TN Valley, tendency will be for the stronger winds aloft and deeper forcing to gradually move away from the more unstable portion of the warm sector. This along with ongoing widespread precipitation, lowers overall confidence in degree of any severe threat at this time.

Euro looked better today.System looks more - tilt, plus this run it has a decent shortwave coming through the Valley.Just like the last system some large hodos

Warmer than i thought it'd be

GFS backed off tonight,convection down south like the Euro has been showing,still could be severe in some parts especially more western to southern Valley

Like John brought up in the winter threads a potential severe threat would be this coming Saturday.The question would be what kind of convection happens south of us which could choke off instabilities.But this system is starting to look like the system we saw earlier this month with a nose of cape with some very good helicities like the GFS shows this afternoon.

Kelvin looks weaker today and don't get out of 3.4.But the westerlies still look like they will get into 3.These maps should be updating here shortly for today,as this was yesterday

Yeah ,noticed this also.Seasonals keep pushing back and back when it peaks like you said.

Still would be cautious of what the CFS shows.Take the CFS out the westerlies are weaker.IMO you don't want to see what the CFS shows.

We'll have to wait and see but i don't like the look.The warmer waters east of the IDL and a potential DW kelvin wave would pull those warmer waters into the thermocline to the surface.It's not basin wide look but more central-east

Some of the long range models don't really show much of a warm up now,guess we'll see,think the date you are talking about is around the 28-29 ?Right now looks more winter than severe

APEC from South Korea

Suspect if we get any severe it's going to be into the weekend after next.You have a trough going through East Asia around the 18-19th and a big dip in the PNA which would suggest some volatility .Just a hunch at this point

The latest NMME shows a moderate Nino into DJF,this update.Much better look for a potential "Modoki" with the SST's to east,it was much warmer looking last time.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0407 AM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential exists for a significant severe event to transpire day 4 (Monday) into day 5 (Tuesday) mainly from the lower MS Valley into the Southeast States. Model solutions have converged and demonstrated run to run consistency, depicting significant cyclogenesis to commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in response to an approaching intense upper jet within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into IL overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to destabilization with moderate instability possible from east TX into a portion of the Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are likely to develop along advancing cold front Monday afternoon initially from southeast OK into east TX, then spreading into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions Monday night. Impressive wind profiles with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat for damaging wind, tornadoes and large hail. Severe threat will continue east through portions of the Southeast states and Middle Atlantic Tuesday.

Some better capes down in the Southern Valley,pretty dynamical negative tilted fall storm though shaping up.Still some slight differences in the GFS and Euro.We'll see if the SPC puts anyone in a risk area tomorrow

Euro has a much weaker system,has some KI.Some better showalter in the eastern valley during the day,maybe some thunder.Overall weaker system that stays neutral tilt and don't really go negative

Nice system like we talked about in the fall thread last week with the trough going through East Asia and Yutu not re-curving and going into the Phillippines but there still was the trough either way.Storm starts to go -ve tilt somewhere around the Central plains.Would be a nice system but still a long way out but still nice it has some backing