jaxjagman

Two weak tornadoes confirmed today from yesterday's storms https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

We havent heard thunder here in months.

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CST Wed Feb 06 2019 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX TO WESTERN KY/TN... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF THE WEEK ...SUMMARY... Episodic severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern Great Plains into the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, mainly from late afternoon through tonight. ...Southern Great Plains to TN/Lower OH Valleys... A messy, relatively low confidence scenario for severe storms is apparent this afternoon through tonight, resulting in maintenance of risk area shape but with an overall southward shift. Have decreased wind/tor probabilities across the northern portion of the risk areas where the polar air mass is likely to remain entrenched. Have increased hail probabilities in magnitude and spatially given the expectation of at least a few supercells this afternoon/evening and for the incipient stage of storm development tonight in the southern Great Plains. The surface front has remained nearly stationary in an arc across northwest TX and far southeast OK, with the portion across AR/MO still sinking south with weak cold advection behind it. This boundary should fully stall by midday with some drift back to the northwest as cyclogenesis occurs in the lee of the southern Rockies. A series of cyclones should develop southeast along the front across the TX Panhandle into far south-central OK through tonight, before consolidating near the AR/MO border by 12Z Thursday. Isentropic ascent/warm advection near the boundary along with weak boundary-layer heating of a warm sector characterized by mid 60s surface dew points should promote scattered thunderstorms along and north of the front through early evening in an arc from southeast OK to TN/KY. While elongated hodographs should support a few embedded supercell structures later today, seasonably modest low-level winds and mid-level lapse rates may curtail a more robust tornado and severe threat. Along the western portion of the warm sector in central TX to far south-central OK, the 10Z HRRR is an outlier with the depiction of intense supercell development near/north of the triple-point region along the Red River. This scenario while seemingly unlikely is possible given strengthening convergence associated with cyclogenesis. Should this occur and a discrete cell or two are able to deviate along the boundary, wind profiles would be highly favorable for a large hail and tornado threat. While other CAMs do not support this scenario, as mid-level height falls finally begin to overspread the region, scattered convection should develop generally on the cool side of the boundary in OK tonight and eventually southward along the developing cold front/remnant dryline into north-central TX. Clusters evolving into broader line segments appear probable overnight as forcing for ascent intensifies, but a strong cap should largely inhibit open warm-sector storm development. In addition, the southern extent of storms should struggle given the track of the shortwave trough from the southern Rockies towards the MO Valley. Still, strengthening low/deep-layer shear could sustain an isolated severe risk overnight.

Short range models are showing some better instability tomorrow for the Valley,we'll see where it goes from here

The KI,cape,shear is a good tool(at a starting point),but other indices are involved with the severe thunderstorm aspect and some indices rely with other indices for severe storms.If you want to learn more about severe this is a good starting spot . http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

Trough is showing further back to the west and the heights are rising up.Best shot of any thunderstorms right now looks to be Wed.afternoon into the the early evening,going by the Euro.Not as much rain also with this look.

Timing differences which should not surprise anyone.CIPS is now showing a chance of thunderstorms.Besides from t-storms the Euro would be a decent rain maker with what it shows with LLShear around 30-35kts and a LLJet 45-50 kts coming through,could be 1.5" to 2" of rn as of today which would be more Tuesday into Wed.

Possibly some strong storms next Sunday/Monday,to far out right now to tell but both the GFS AND Euro are showing the DP'S into the lower 60's,with instabilities showing.

I was waiting on the shutdown to end for data.I'm not going to get in any political debate here so with this thread only 14 pages, i went ahead and included 2019 in the topic,let's just run with it for right now for 2019.

Couple seasonals are hinting at a developing LaNina into the summer months.GOES seems to be the most bullish as it seems to want to kick start it into spring time,

Sam Lillo‏ @splillo FollowFollow @splillo More Here's the final gridded tornado-day anomaly map and timeline for 2018. Several hot spots of note. The big story of course is the substantial negative anomaly both spatially and temporally - across the popularly defined tornado alley, and tornado season. 11:05 AM - 1 Jan 2019 More This is based on integrating the practically perfect forecast defined in Hitchen, Brooks and Kay 2013. I.e. you could do the same for SPC tornado probs through the year, and a value of -1 would mean an anomaly from "average" total annual forecast probs of -100%. 0 replies0 retweets2 likes Reply Retweet Like 2 More Since there have been a lot of questions about trends, here they are for the last 30 years of EF1+ tornadoes, in tornado-days / decade. The second plot removes 2011, which negates trends in the seasonal cycle, but spatial trends in the Southeast remain. 0 replies1 retweet10 likes Reply Retweet 1 Like 10

Just a heads up,since the page is only 6 pages i changed the title to ENSO 2018-2019,unless someone has an objection we'll leave it as is and run with it into 2019.

HARPETH can be a bitch in our world.Creeks around our house are maxed out,should start to settle down the next couple hours

Flood Advisory National Weather Service Nashville TN 557 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a flood advisory for the following rivers in middle Tennessee... Harpeth River At Bellevue affecting Davidson and Williamson Counties .Water levels on the Harpeth River will continue to rise this evening, and crest below Flood Stage overnight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Stay tuned to noaa weather radio or other local media for further information from the National Weather Service. && TNC037-187-011157- /O.NEW.KOHX.FL.Y.0095.181231T2357Z-190101T1800Z/ /BELT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ 557 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018 The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a * Flood Advisory for The Harpeth River At Bellevue * At 05PM Monday the stage was 14.3 feet and rising. * Flood stage is 20.0 feet. * The river will rise overnight to near 16 feet, then fall to near 11.5 feet Tuesday morning. * At 14.0 feet...Portions of the Harpeth River Greenway begin to be inundated, and water begins to inundate the parking lot of the Harpeth River State Park at Highway 100.

Glad it's moving fast,drove by the Harpeth creek this morning in Franklin,it's rising.The creek by our house is the highest since we've moved here

Seen some wind reports by the Rim,65 mph with trees down,only tornado around us has been into Ky

Best cell in our area looks to be by Holenwald,least there is some storm markers with bowing structure

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and northern Alabama Central and Eastern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...An increasingly well-organized squall line is expected to race east-northeastward across parts of the region, with other potentially more isolated storms ahead of the line across Mississippi into western/northern Alabama. Although the air mass is not overly unstable, very strong low-level/deep-layer winds will support bowing segments along with embedded mesovortices capable of wind damage and some tornado risk. The overall severe risk should wane by early evening in most areas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Nashville TN to 65 miles south southeast of Jackson MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST ALABAMA...TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, including a potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, will be possible today from parts of central Mississippi and northwest Alabama north-northeastward into Tennessee and southern Kentucky. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley today. A surface low will gradually deepen ahead of the upper-level trough with a surface trough extending southward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the surface trough, moisture advection will continue as a corridor of low-level moisture sets up across Mississippi and western Tennessee. Convection is forecast to develop along and to the east of the surface trough late this morning into the afternoon, spreading eastward across Mississippi and western Tennessee. Although instability should remain weak along the moist corridor, a 60-70 kt low-level jet will create strong low-level shear profiles. Forecast soundings from east of Jackson, MS north-northeastward to near Nashville, TN early this afternoon show 0-3 km storm-relative helicities in the 350 to 500 m2/s2 range along with 0-6 km shear of 65-75 kt. This impressive shear environment will support low-topped fast-moving supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat should occur with the stronger discrete cells that develop near the axis of the low-level jet. These storms will also have a wind-damage threat. Later in the afternoon, increasing low-level convergence should aide the development of a line of storms along the surface-trough. This line should have a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat as it moves eastward across middle Tennessee, Mississippi and into western and central Alabama this afternoon. Further north across west-central Kentucky into far southern Indiana, forecast soundings show very weak instability this afternoon. This will likely minimize the tornado threat across most of the Ohio Valley. Wind damage will still be possible with the greatest threat from far southern Kentucky southward into middle Tennessee, where forcing associated with the low-level jet and upper-level trough will aide the intensity of a fine convective line.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Dec 30 2018 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MID SOUTH INTO LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley region Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow appears likely to remain broadly confluent across eastern North America, between a prominent subtropical high centered over the Bahamas and a polar low centered east/northeast of Hudson Bay, while amplified positively tilted ridging/troughing persists across the eastern Pacific into western North America, within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. However, in response to further digging of a vigorous short wave impulse within the troughing inland of the Pacific coast, models continue to indicate that the remnants of a significant mid-level closed low will accelerate northeastward out of the Mexican Plateau during this period. The lead impulse is forecast to progress across/northeast of the Texas South Plains by 12Z Monday, before continuing northeastward, then eastward, through the middle Mississippi Valley and lower Great Lakes region (generally around the western/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging) by 12Z Tuesday. Model output remains indicative that forcing for ascent associated with this feature will support modest to strong surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone currently stalled across the Gulf States/Gulf coast region. This may commence across the Ozark Plateau by late tonight, as the front advances northward/northeastward, with most rapid deepening currently expected across the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region Monday afternoon and evening. In response to these developments, a strengthening southerly flow off a modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico appears likely to allow for a substantive plume of returning moisture. Within the warm sector of the cyclone, where wind fields are forecast to strengthen to 50-70+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer, this is expected to include lower/mid 60s+ surface dew points east of the lower Mississippi Valley, at least as far north as the lower Ohio Valley. These conditions may contribute to an environment conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development, including a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley through Ohio Valley... Possible weak destabilization appears the primary potential mitigating factor concerning the severe thunderstorm risk Monday through Monday night. Despite the degree of low-level moisture return, lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates within the warm sector appear likely to remain weak, due to the absence of northeastward advecting warm elevated mixed-layer air, while the mid-level cold core of the upper system also generally remains displaced to the west/north. Boundary layer heating may also be limited, and it appears CAPE may not exceed 500 J/kg. Still, it appears that this will be sufficient to support thunderstorm development of sufficient strength to at least augment the downward transfer of high momentum, and potentially damaging wind gusts, to the surface. Maximum severe probabilities are expected to become focused across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley region, on the general southern periphery of the stronger mid/upper forcing for large-scale ascent, where destabilization may become sufficient to support an evolving squall line Monday afternoon and evening. It might not be out of the question that this line may be preceded by isolated discrete supercell development while advancing northeastward across parts of Kentucky/Tennessee and northern Mississippi/Alabama, with additional discrete thunderstorm development possible across parts of southeastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi and Alabama, where forcing for ascent is expected to be much weaker, but the boundary layer may be a bit more moist and unstable. This convection may be accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, in addition to strong outflow wind gusts. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: <5% - None ..Kerr.. 12/30/2018

Still a chance of storms in the western Valley,GFS isnt as good compared to yesterday Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with damaging wind the main risk are possible over a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. ...Lower Mississippi Valley region... A cyclone will evolve over the lower to mid MS Valley region early Monday in response to forcing accompanying a northeast-ejecting but deamplifying shortwave trough. Trailing cold front should extend from a weak low in AR southwest through eastern TX at the start of the period, before continuing into the southeast U.S. as the cyclone develops northeastward through the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. A corridor of modifying Gulf air with mid 60s F dewpoints should advect northward through pre-frontal warm sector along an intense (70 kt) southerly low level jet. This process will contribute to some destabilization, but CAPE will remain very marginal (less than 500 J/kg) owing to widespread clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be ongoing along the warm conveyor belt from eastern TX/LA into AR, and some intensification might occur during the day as this band continues east and interacts with the moistening boundary layer, though a near-surface stable layer could persist especially with northward extend toward the TN Valley. Though wind profiles will be favorable for organized severe storms, expected weak thermodynamic environment will remain a limiting factor. Nevertheless, some potential will exist for some of the convection to organize into mostly low-topped line segments capable of a few locally strong wind gusts later in the day into the early evening.

One more chance of severe weather should be Monday then close this thread out for the year.This threat looks more west of I-65 Monday,but we'll see, looks to be quick moving system .Clouds could be a limiting factor as SPC mentions.Euro shows a line of low level convergence through the western Valley to mid Valley,wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk tomorrow in parts of the Valley,if the models don't flip tonight's run Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclogenesis and a strong low-level jet will evolve Monday (day 4) over the mid MS, TN and OH Valleys in response to a deamplifying, northeast-ejecting shortwave trough. The cyclone will undergo some deepening as it develops northeastward, but model differences persist regarding the intensity of the low. Nevertheless at least partially modified Gulf air will advect northward through the pre-frontal warm sector contributing to a narrow corridor of weak instability from LA through MS and west TN. Weak lapse rates and widespread clouds will serves as limiting factors, and at least a shallow near surface stable layer might persist, especially with northward extent through the TN Valley. A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop along and just ahead of the cold front, and this activity will be embedded within wind profiles favorable for organized severe storms. While at least low severe probabilities will likely be introduced in the next update, too much uncertainty still exists regarding the evolution of the thermodynamic environment to introduce a 15% or greater risk area at this time.

Jamstec update shows a "VERY Strong" Central/East based Nino in "DJF"

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

I know.