jaxjagman

https://www.ustornadoes.com/2019/03/01/spring-2019-seasonal-tornado-outlook/ Using analogs of 1995 we had our most 3rd ranked severe of all time,of course during this time frame we was A MORE neutral enso coming of an Nina.Also during this time frame from 1990-1997 we never had a SSWE,would really like to see more study into SSWE's.The last split which was similar to this years was in a weak NINA in 1984 ,on Dec 31st,we broke our all-time record lows temps in Nashville in Jan of 1985 The tornado outbreak in May of 1995 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1995_tornado_outbreak_sequence Edit:I took out some of the post out because i found some conflicting aspects.Wiki seems to be going by reported tornadoes and not confirmed.80 confirmed tornadoes seemed to be really extreme to me.This by OHX back on May 18,1995, looks more realistic https://www.weather.gov/ohx/19950518 Some of the tornado reports were also wind,hail and thunderstorm reports.But either way that was a heck of a day https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php?lat=32.810&lon=87.408&zoom=70&mode=1&bdate=19950518/1200&edate=19950519/1200&torflag=1&windflag=1&hailflag=1&t01=0&t02=5&t03=0&t04=9999&t05=0&t06=9999&t07=0&t08=9999&t09=0&t10=9999&h01=0&h02=9999&w01=0&w02=9999&showt=0&legend=1&showh=-1&showw=-1

Friday looks uncertain with a lot of model spread.Euro is suppressed ,GFS is North,,BSR looks even more west. Next Friday will be exactly two years that Middle Tn had its severe outbreak in the morning on March 1

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https://www.tn.gov/tema/current-status.html

Mud slide north of Nashville on 1-24 has it shut down

An error occurred while processing your request. Reference #97.14ac3817.1550954734.c44e726 Yeah at times the site is down, other times not

The cell NW of Germantown is showing a little rotation right now

Just as you said that tornado watch

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2019 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Northern and central Mississippi Western and middle Tennessee Northwest Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... A few strong tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are expected, primarily through this evening across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. The most dangerous period for tornadoes should be around 2 to 8 PM CST across northern Mississippi, southwest Tennessee, and far northwest Alabama. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

The WF is finally lifting

You don't see that to many times in winter time.Not only a tornado threat but the wind alone with all the rain fall has the potential to look like a war zone.Like i said earlier in the severe thread,trees will topple down very easily as it roots don't have nothing to hold onto,dangerous storm none the less

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop today from the Arklatex region and lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across much of the area. ...Significant tornado and wind damage event expected across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today... ...Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... A well organized negatively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the southern Plains today as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will gradually deepen and move northeastward across the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. A surface trough is forecast to extend southward into the lower Mississippi Valley with a moist airmass located across the region. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will overspread northern Louisiana, southeast Arkansas and most of Mississippi by midday. At the start of the period, a cluster of thunderstorms should be ongoing from northern Mississippi into western and middle Tennessee. The stronger storms embedded in the cluster may have an isolated severe threat. This activity is forecast to move northeastward away the moderate risk area allowing for the moist sector to warm up late this morning. In response, a corridor of moderate instability is expected to be in place by midday from northeast Louisiana into far southeast Arkansas and western Tennessee. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the southern Plains upper-level trough, thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the morning along the surface trough in the Arklatex with this convection moving northeastward into southeastern Arkansas by midday. More isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from northern Louisiana into north-central Mississippi. During the early to mid afternoon, convective coverage should increase with scattered thunderstorms moving east-northeastward across the Enhanced and Moderate Risk areas. RAP forecast soundings across the Moderate Risk area from north-central Mississippi into southwest Tennessee at 21Z show moderate instability and impressive kinematic profiles. MLCAPE is forecast to be from 1000 to 1200 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 55 kt range. This will support supercell formation with cells that remain discrete. In addition, hodographs are long and looped with 0-3 km storm relative helicity values in the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range. This low-level shear environment will be favorable for tornadoes. A potential for long-track significant tornadoes will exist across the Moderate Risk area from late this morning through much of the afternoon. Wind damage and isolated large hail will also be possible with supercells. A squall-line is also expected to develop and move across the Enhanced and Moderate risk areas during the late afternoon and early evening. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms embedded in the line. This squall-line with wind damage potential should move across middle Tennessee and north-central Alabama during the evening. Further north across the Ohio Valley, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to move northeastward into western Kentucky and southern Indiana during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z for Paducah show MLCAPE near 800 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of 65 kt. This combined with strong low-level shear will be sufficient for severe storms capable of producing tornadoes and wind damage. Most of the severe convection should remain south of the Ohio River. Due to the weaker instability in the Ohio Valley, severe coverage is expected to be less. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 02/23/2019

The convection into Northern Ms is really picking up http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=30

Using the WPC maps you can see the WF sagged southward more as a CF for a short while but is now stationary.Messy storm.

I'll use the last RAP update where it actually shows the WF where it dropped acting more as a CF,but it's stationary once again but the WF that was suppose to be much further north isn't.The arrows i posted is an inverted trough.

Actually what you see is from an Inverted trough,the WF that was suppose to lift is still in Central Alabama

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0065 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1045 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Areas affected...Southeast AR...Northern MS...Far Northwest AL...Southwest to South-Central TN Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 230345Z - 230945Z Summary...There will be concerns for life-threatening/significant flooding and flash flooding overnight as additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms arrive over exceedingly wet/saturated soil conditions. Discussion...The large scale synoptic pattern features a deep trough and associated closed low beginning to exit the Four Corners region and moving out across the southern High Plains. Downstream of this is a deep layer warm advection pattern over the Lower MS Valley with a strong subtropical jet oriented southwest/northeast from the eastern Pacific up across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and across the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary frontal zone is draped across the Gulf Coast states. There continues to be more than enough forcing in place for numerous showers and thunderstorms across areas of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South as persistent southwest low level flow in the 850/925 mb overruns the front and transports plenty of moisture and instability in an elevated fashion. Additionally, much of this region is situated underneath favorable right-entrance region jet dynamics which is fostering deep layer ascent in conjunction with favorable thermodynamics. The latest radar imagery is showing heavy showers and thunderstorms beginning to gradually become better organized/focused again over areas of southeast AR and up across northern MS. Cloud top cooling seen in GOES-16 IR satellite imagery is suggestive of stronger forcing and most likely related to not only an increase in divergent flow aloft, but also strengthening of the low level jet. Hires models from the 00Z cycle, including numerous runs of the HRRR, support an axis of training showers and thunderstorms going through 09Z across especially areas of southeast AR, northern MS, and into areas of southwest to south-central TN. This will be supported by largely unidirectional flow in the 850/500 mb layer, but one major contributing factor to the rainfall threat overnight will be the increasing low level jet which is forecast to reach upwards of 50 kts across northern MS by 09Z. Enhanced moisture transport will result from this and the PWATs are forecast to rise to locally over 1.75 inches. Radar trends tend to favor the QPF axis of the 00Z ARW and last couple runs of the HRRR a bit more versus the 00Z ARW2/NAM-conest solutions, and the MPD threat area closely follows a consensus of these solutions for this period. Very heavy rainfall totals overnight are expected, with as much as an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain expected. In fact, the latest HREF probabilistic output favors rainfall rates approaching 2 inches/hr within the stronger convective elements. Unfortunately, the soil conditions are saturated and there are already locally significant runoff problems/flooding ongoing. The additional rainfall tonight will only exacerbate the situation further and it appears that life-threatening/significant flooding and flash flooding will be likely. Will continue to monitor the situation closely. Orrison

They have the Triple point on the side,it's up in the air for us

There looks to be a big tornado threat along the Ms./Tn border

NAM shows a PDS around Memphis around 3PM

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected Saturday from a portion of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and possibly into western and central Kentucky. Damaging wind and tornadoes are the main threats, but hail is also possible. ...Synopsis... By 12Z Saturday, lee cyclogenesis will be well underway over the southern High Plains in association with a potent southern-stream shortwave trough now located over AZ. This feature will continue into the southern and central Plains and then northeastward into the middle MS Valley tomorrow. By later Saturday afternoon the cyclone will be located over MO with a cold front trailing southward through AR and LA. A warm front should extend southeastward from the low through western KY into middle TN and GA. The surface low will occlude over the Great Lakes while the trailing front reaches the central and southern Appalachians by the end of the period. ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions... As of mid day a quasi-stationary front extends from the northwest Gulf through southern portions of the Gulf Coast states. Rich low-level moisture with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints resides south of this front. Farther north a rain-cooled boundary stretches from northeast TX through northern portions of MS, AL and GA. A broad southerly low-level jet will increase tonight over the lower MS Valley within the gradient zone between retreating high pressure and the developing lee cyclone. This will promote northward advance of the warm front that will eventually merge with the rain-cooled boundary farther north. This consolidated boundary should reach central AR and western TN later Saturday morning, possibly continuing as far north as western KY during the afternoon. Primary uncertainty this forecast is degree and northward extent of boundary layer destabilization, especially through west and central KY. Most recent model runs including the CAMs suggest that much of KY will be affected by areas of widespread rain and clouds within zone of isentropic ascent north of the warm front, with only a small window for modest surface-based destabilization before cold frontal passage. The RAP, being the outlier, advances the unstable warm sector farther north. In either case, feel that at least a slight risk is warranted as far north as KY given the favorable kinematic environment and some potential for surface-based destabilization. Otherwise, a corridor of modest surface-based instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected to evolve in warm sector over the lower MS and western TN Valleys within zone of theta-e advection along the strengthening low-level jet. A band of thunderstorms will likely develop within this warm conveyor belt along and just ahead of the cold front from AR into LA by late morning and continue east during the afternoon. A strong mid-level jet rotating through base of the shortwave trough, coupled with the strengthening 50+ kt low-level jet, will promote very favorable wind profiles for severe storms. Large 0-2 km hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear will support supercells with low-level mesocyclones and bowing structures capable of tornadoes and damaging wind, with peak period from afternoon into early evening.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected Saturday from a portion of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and possibly into western and central Kentucky. Damaging wind and tornadoes are the main threats, but hail is also possible. ...Synopsis... By 12Z Saturday, lee cyclogenesis will be well underway over the southern High Plains in association with a potent southern-stream shortwave trough now located over AZ. This feature will continue into the southern and central Plains and then northeastward into the middle MS Valley tomorrow. By later Saturday afternoon the cyclone will be located over MO with a cold front trailing southward through AR and LA. A warm front should extend southeastward from the low through western KY into middle TN and GA. The surface low will occlude over the Great Lakes while the trailing front reaches the central and southern Appalachians by the end of the period. ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions... As of mid day a quasi-stationary front extends from the northwest Gulf through southern portions of the Gulf Coast states. Rich low-level moisture with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints resides south of this front. Farther north a rain-cooled boundary stretches from northeast TX through northern portions of MS, AL and GA. A broad southerly low-level jet will increase tonight over the lower MS Valley within the gradient zone between retreating high pressure and the developing lee cyclone. This will promote northward advance of the warm front that will eventually merge with the rain-cooled boundary farther north. This consolidated boundary should reach central AR and western TN later Saturday morning, possibly continuing as far north as western KY during the afternoon. Primary uncertainty this forecast is degree and northward extent of boundary layer destabilization, especially through west and central KY. Most recent model runs including the CAMs suggest that much of KY will be affected by areas of widespread rain and clouds within zone of isentropic ascent north of the warm front, with only a small window for modest surface-based destabilization before cold frontal passage. The RAP, being the outlier, advances the unstable warm sector farther north. In either case, feel that at least a slight risk is warranted as far north as KY given the favorable kinematic environment and some potential for surface-based destabilization. Otherwise, a corridor of modest surface-based instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected to evolve in warm sector over the lower MS and western TN Valleys within zone of theta-e advection along the strengthening low-level jet. A band of thunderstorms will likely develop within this warm conveyor belt along and just ahead of the cold front from AR into LA by late morning and continue east during the afternoon. A strong mid-level jet rotating through base of the shortwave trough, coupled with the strengthening 50+ kt low-level jet, will promote very favorable wind profiles for severe storms. Large 0-2 km hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear will support supercells with low-level mesocyclones and bowing structures capable of tornadoes and damaging wind, with peak period from afternoon into early evening.

The WF is finally lifting.It's been stuck down South of the valley since last evening