jaxjagman

ENSO looks more West,central based right now with warmer waters down in the depth.Almost a "Modoki" look but not quite yet

Storms fell apart in our area but they did hit the OFB in the SW Valley,some good storms going on down S/West and South of us

Been awhile since we've seen these type MCS's come through in the summer time, unusual for us in the Valley.We certainly have not seen this in years.Looks like the pattern finally breaks down the first part of the work week then returns with more diurnal rain towards the end of the work week maybe.least this is what the Euro looks like

HRW did well this morning in Middle Tn,it showed the system weaken and break up before it got to Nashville.Weather Channel even showed a shelf North of Nashville this morning.Looks like a MCS coming from the Mo/Valley and lower OV is fixing to swing through later on,seen the SPC is fixing to throw up a possible T-Storm watch up soon.HRRR looks contaminated showing some PW's 2.35",should though see some potential strong storms as it seems to be hitting some better capes getting into Tn

Tornado Cell South of Hopkinsville

Probably one of the biggest watch boxes ive seen in years in the Valley

Mesoscale show sbcapes of over 6k in SW Ky,these storms should get really fired up shortly

Maybe we'll see a shelf today Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected to affect the mid Mississippi, Lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. Other severe storms may occur over parts of eastern Colorado and the Dakotas. ...Middle MS Valley into TN... A long-lived mature linear MCS is tracking across eastern MO into western IL. This activity has resulted in several reports of damaging winds, and will likely persist through the afternoon as it moves into portions of IN and northern KY. The air mass will become progressively less unstable farther east, so it is unclear how far up the Ohio valley the damaging wind threat will persist. But due to uncertainties and the significant mesoscale organization of the system, have expanded the MRGL/SLGT risk areas farther east into central/eastern Kentucky. A second mature linear MCS over western MO is immediately following the first, and has also produced several reports of wind damage. This line appears to be taking a slightly more southerly trajectory, and is tapping a very moist and very unstable air mass. It appears likely that this MCS will become dominant through the day and track across parts of southern MO, southern IL and eventually into KY/TN. Have expanded the ENH risk eastward into these regions to account for this scenario. It is unclear how far southeast this activity will maintain severe intensity. However, based on a few CAM solutions, have extended SLGT risk to the mountains of east TN for tonight.

Mountains make such cool pics when storms roll over them

That was the best storm we've seen here since the tornado a couple years ago.Some huge hail.I was picking my son up from gymnastics practice and my car was getting pounded,ran over a few lines,dodged some big branches.Few roads are blocked off i saw coming back home.Glad i left my radar on so i could capture the hail,but i have no clue how big it was,it wasn't over 3" for sure the radar estimated.We live right on the out-skirts of Nolensville,but basically it's still Brentwood,glad the power survived though.

Yeah,the JMA does this.Probably not a good sign

MJO still look more progressive than what the RMM's are showing but it does look like it could weaken,somewhat.NAO looks more flat lined today going + or -, choose your dart.PNA by the GEFS and it ensembles are tight together showing a -PNA into wk 3 of this month but going back possibly positive towards the end of the month into July.Euro shows in the long range(day 8-10 shows a 594DM into MS and Alabama,this wouldn't be relative bad for us in the Valley heat wise,you should even have a chance of a shortwave or two.

Looks like that last KW did a job trying to upwell those cooler waters towards the surface,east of the IDL,still deep into the thermocline,at this point

MJO is showing signs of getting into the Western and Central Pacific,this should be a more +NAO with the strongest -PNA we've seen since winter.We should see AN temps in the long range,good news though it shouldn't last long,right now anyways

Should see a warm up i'd think into 3.4 upcoming

Marginal risk day 3.I'm starting to think the best chance of severe storms will come after this.Wed-Thursday. both the GFS and Euro are showing LP system going into the Mo Valley.This should in turn strenghten the LLJ.Both models though show this,right now anyways some sort of shortwave,trough, coming through the Valley during this time.Trying to pin point shortwaves though at his time would be kinda tough

Must have been a drag for the people that went in summer clothes to Bonnaroo last night,but i'm sure a few had a half-pint to much already anyways but for those that didn't ational Weather Service Nashville TN 929 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... The day began with near record cool temperatures across the area. Monterey had 46, Kingston Springs 47, Fall Creek Falls 42, and 47 at Manchesteroo. Today will be the very best of the foreseeable future by most standards. Skies will be sunny with some patches of thin cirrus. Temps will reach the 70s to lower 80s with comfy humidity levels. Tonight will be cool, but not quite as much as this morning. Forecast has been updated to adjust hourly trends and lower afternoon dew points due to deep mixing. From the previous discussion...Temperatures and dew points will be noticeably higher on Saturday compared to today. Rain chances will return starting on Sunday as upper flow becomes southwesterly and deep moisture settles into the area. Activity on Sunday looks to be mainly diurnal, but we will start seeing a series of disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow Sunday night. Showers and storms will be more widespread on Monday with more upper level support compared to Sunday. A stronger shortwave will move through the area on Tuesday with even higher coverage of PoPs on Tuesday. We will be between shortwaves on Wednesday with more zonal upper flow, so showers and storms should be less widespread. Another shortwave will move through Wednesday night into Thursday bringing more showers and storms. The rest of the work week will see some diurnal showers and storms, but no organized waves. Temperatures Sunday through next week will be near normal with mild nights. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be a couple degrees cooler than Wednesday through Friday with widespread cloud cover and showers and storms. Lows Saturday night through next week will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Don't feel like summer,10-15 degrees BN tonight

Rather see this in Nov and not June.Jamstec keeps Nino going through basically May.This is "JFM" not what it's tagged

Maybe some decent storms for guys in the east Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POCKETS OF THE COUNTRY FROM WEST TX TO NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across pockets of the US from west Texas to coastal Carolinas. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Discussion... Latest short-range model guidance continues to suggest a notable mid-level speed max will dig southeast across the High Plains into the base of central US trough over northern MS by 13/00z. This feature will eject into the southern Appalachians during the overnight hours along with an attendant increase in large-scale forcing for ascent. Early in the period, convection is expected to be ongoing along a cold front across the lower MO Valley into northeast OK. Strong heating ahead of the wind shift is expected to aid buoyancy through steepening lapse rates across the Ozarks, primarily north of aforementioned digging jet. Will maintain 5% severe probs across this region due to dryer than normal boundary layer. A few strong storms may also develop along the surging front across portions of west TX where strong heating should remove CINH. Downstream, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will advance north across the eastern TN Valley around the western periphery of wedge front in the lee of the Appalachians. Latest guidance suggest surface heating should aid buoyancy along a corridor from northeast AL into southeast IN. As exit region of approaching jet affects this zone of instability, convection should readily develop by early evening. Given the strength of the sharpening trough, there is some concern severe probs may need to be raised to account for this increasingly dynamic system. As mid-level heights fall across the southern Appalachians during the latter half of the period, a surface wave should evolve along coastal front over southeast GA/southern SC. This feature should lift north-northeast and may allow more moist/buoyant air mass to return to eastern NC. Will introduce 5% severe probs to account for convection that should develop within an increasingly sheared environment during the overnight hours. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal

Euro and GFS agree with each other.Looks like a nice work week into the first part of the weekend until Sunday when the instabilities start creeping upwards.East Asia looks fairly active the next 10 days with no big ridge setting in US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Valid Thursday June 13 2019 - Monday June 17 2019 Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Southern/Central Plains, the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Mon, Jun 13-Jun 17. - Flooding possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southern Appalachians. - Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley. - Flooding likely across portions of the Great Basin, the Northern/Central Rockies, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains. - Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, Sat-Mon, Jun 15-Jun 17. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Mon, Jun 13-Jun 17. Detailed Summary: After a break over the past couple days and during the short range period, the central U.S. is once again expecting heavy rainfall in the medium range. Model uncertainty exists regarding the placement of shortwave troughs in the western U.S. that could influence the lift for this precipitation, but regardless, moisture inflow is expected to increase in the Central/Southern Plains initially and spread eastward through the period. Thus, the current forecast shows heavy rain beginning in the Central/Southern Plains by Thursday and spreading into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley for the weekend. Overall a widespread 2 to 4 inches of precipitation is forecast for parts of the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley, with locally higher amounts. These regions have generally had much above average rainfall over the past few months and are sensitive to additional rainfall. By next Monday and Tuesday, a slow-moving front is expected to suppress the heavy rain a bit southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley, while continuing in the Southern Plains. Heavy rainfall is also possible farther east toward the Lower Great Lakes region and Northeast for the end of the period, but did not outlook an area there due to uncertainties in amounts and placement. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JUN10 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR 6 HR 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW CAPE QPF CVP NCP HGT 500 (C) (C) J/KG (IN) (IN) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 10-JUN 21.9 21.5 261 585 572 MON 18Z 10-JUN 25.4 20.2 114 586 572 TUE 00Z 11-JUN 22.2 12.2 0 0.02 0.01 0.01 585 570 TUE 06Z 11-JUN 16.5 10.5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 584 567 TUE 12Z 11-JUN 14.9 9.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 584 565 TUE 18Z 11-JUN 23.1 8.5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 584 567 WED 00Z 12-JUN 20.4 12.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 582 568 WED 06Z 12-JUN 16.2 10.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 581 567 WED 12Z 12-JUN 16.1 11.9 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 WED 18Z 12-JUN 26.4 14.0 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 576 566 THU 00Z 13-JUN 22.0 14.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 571 563 THU 06Z 13-JUN 16.3 13.0 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 568 559 THU 12Z 13-JUN 16.3 14.0 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 555 THU 18Z 13-JUN 21.9 9.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 570 557 FRI 00Z 14-JUN 19.5 9.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 572 559 FRI 06Z 14-JUN 12.8 8.5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 576 560 FRI 12Z 14-JUN 13.7 10.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 579 561 FRI 18Z 14-JUN 24.0 7.7 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 582 564 SAT 00Z 15-JUN 22.4 13.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 583 568 SAT 06Z 15-JUN 16.0 11.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 584 568 SAT 12Z 15-JUN 17.7 11.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 584 569 SAT 18Z 15-JUN 29.2 14.4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 585 572 SUN 00Z 16-JUN 27.0 16.8 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 585 575 SUN 06Z 16-JUN 23.0 16.5 28 0.00 0.00 0.00 585 575 SUN 12Z 16-JUN 22.7 19.0 1272 0.10 0.10 0.00 585 572 SUN 18Z 16-JUN 30.1 21.9 2561 0.10 0.10 0.00 586 575 MON 00Z 17-JUN 23.2 22.2 1630 0.43 0.41 0.02 584 573 MON 06Z 17-JUN 21.6 21.1 1232 0.05 0.05 0.00 584 572 MON 12Z 17-JUN 21.6 20.9 957 0.06 0.04 0.01 583 571 MON 18Z 17-JUN 28.0 22.9 2480 0.08 0.07 0.01 584 573 TUE 00Z 18-JUN 25.5 22.2 1673 0.05 0.05 0.00 583 573 TUE 06Z 18-JUN 22.6 21.8 1164 0.04 0.01 0.03 582 573 TUE 12Z 18-JUN 20.7 20.1 715 0.38 0.26 0.12 582 572 TUE 18Z 18-JUN 26.0 21.5 610 0.10 0.08 0.02 584 574 WED 00Z 19-JUN 24.6 22.7 1443 0.12 0.07 0.05 584 575 WED 06Z 19-JUN 21.8 21.5 1937 0.06 0.06 0.00 584 574 WED 12Z 19-JUN 22.2 21.6 1331 0.28 0.03 584 574 WED 18Z 19-JUN 28.3 22.6 1838 0.07 0.01 585 576 THU 00Z 20-JUN 25.6 22.5 1490 0.11 0.11 0.01 583 576 THU 06Z 20-JUN 21.7 21.5 872 0.40 0.38 0.02 582 574 THU 12Z 20-JUN 21.8 21.1 727 0.14 0.04 0.10 582 573

Models are killing off the MJO to fast,typical bias with the ENSO,If this were into the summer time(More around July) we'd probably see a big warm up in the Valley.

I was rather disappointed in this system until this afternoon in the Mid Valley.The position of the LP kept getting us cut off.Not bad though this afternoon,our temps rose into the mid 80's, even into the mid morning everything was saturated with high PW's for some decent rain,least i was hoping and it did well.Most areas have gotten some much needed decent rains in Tn since Wed,this isn't updated also ...TENNESSEE... OLIVE BRANCH 8.70 GERMANTOWN 7.32 DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS 6.70 COLLIERVILLE 1.4 SE 6.68 HERNANDO 5 S 5.31 HENDERSONVILLE 3 NE 5.00 OLD HICKORY 1.2 SSE 4.92 GALLATIN 4.71 MOUNT JULIET 4.34 LYNCHBURG 1 NNW 4.24 MEMPHIS INTL ARPT 4.03 BRISTOL/TRI-CITIES AIRPORT 3.83 WINCHESTER 5.4 SSE 3.63 SUMNER CO APT 3.25 TUSCULUM 0.7 WNW 2.80 MADISON 1.2 WSW 2.76 ATOKA 1.9 S 2.72 LEBANON 10.5 ENE 2.55 FRANKLIN 3.6 NW 2.54