jaxjagman

Just a heads up in case some of ya'll in this area wasn't aware,didn't know where to post it,figured this was as good as any. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Huntsville AL 928 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 ...Hytop Radar Will Be Out Of Service Beginning Monday August 5... The KHTX WSR-88D Radar, operated and maintained by the NWS WFO in Huntsville, AL, will be out of service next week for an extended period of scheduled maintenance. The radar will be taken off line on Monday morning, August 5, with the outage expected to last approximately five days. The maintenance performed next week will involve refurbishing the transmitter with new cables and fuses, ideally resulting in smooth operation of the radar for another twenty years. During the downtime, we encourage users to access radar data from the following sites adjacent to KHTX: 1. KGWX (Columbus AFB, MS) 2. KBMX (Birmingham, AL) 3. KOHX (Nashville, TN) 4. KFFC (Atlanta, GA) 5. KNQA (Memphis, TN)

You know winter is getting close when you see Mr.Bob

Believe this is from Upwelling from a KW.CPC is still behind the TAO around 5-days it seems,Think you are talking about the CPC? https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=a&P3=a&P4=a&P5=a&P6=a&P7=a&P8=a&P9=a&P10=a&P11=t&P12=mean&P13=20190730-August-1-2019&P14=a&P15=0&P16=32&P17=500&P18=0&P19=t&P20=anom&P21=20190730-August-1-2019&P22=a&P23=-12&P24=12&P25=300&P26=0&P27=tt&script=disdel/dep-lon-5day-disdel-v75.csh CPC finally updated it's ETA'S today. The MJO is headed towards the Maritime upcoming.,GEFS and Euro, one of the two are lost with even the starting point today.Looks like the strongest typhoon of the season is going to hit around S/Korea/ SW Japan then into the Sea of Japan in East Asia,around next weekend but that could change until then Looks like a potential KW is headed towards the IDL with the MJO into week-2 of August,after that everything seems to look murky,but this should effect the ENSO upcoming

CanSIPS has some tech glitch..CPC seems to be updating now and the subsurface looks warmer now than the 12th,posted above,especially east of the IDL

Wouldnt be bad if it was trustworthy at this point

CanSIPS looks almost like a moderate Nina in the winter.Wish the CPC would update the Subsurface Tropical Pacific Ocean Analyses,been almost three weeks since the last update

National Weather Service Nashville TN 1152 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 .UPDATE... FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Our FFA will be expanded to cover most of our area. Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours should expand rapidly across the area going into the afternoon. The approach of a trough and embedded MCVs will help initiate the activity in a very moist environment. The 12Z OHX upper air showed about 2 inches for precipitable water, and models are focusing a northeast to southwest band of moisture convergence across Mid Tn this afternoon. Our previous FFA area did show the zone of most persistent lift, but potential for localized flash flooding seems just as high extending back across our southwest counties where heavy rainfall has occurred during the past few days. 1 hour flash flood guidance values are under 2 inches for much of the Mid State, and we will likely have episodes of rainfall rates well in excess of these amounts. We do not expect a widespread flood situation, but locations where heavy convective bands set up could be dealing with several inches of rain and significant local impacts. Thanks LMK for collaboration.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1205 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Day 1 Valid 16Z Mon Jul 22 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 23 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...Lower Mississippi Valley, through the Tennessee Valley and Central Appalachians, into portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... The expansive band of Slight to Moderate Risk was generally maintained with minimal changes on this forecast update, stretching from Arkansas to southern New England. Among the minor changes were to extend the length of the Moderate Risk on both ends: (1) along the Kentucky and Tennessee border to account for an alignment of ongoing convection in a zone of low-level confluence and on the northern periphery of a pool of stronger instability; and (2) from the NYC metro area into southwest Connecticut as hi-res models have a fairly robust signal for heavier QPF (2+ inches) into Connecticut. The Slight Risk area was drawn further northwest in parts of southeast Ohio and southwest Pennsylvania to account for the position of developing convection along the front in those areas. The overall forecast reasoning remains similar, with a ribbon of precipitable water values near or above the 95th percentile along a gradually advancing front. HREF probabilities indicate a high likelihood of pockets of at least 2-3 inches of rainfall over most of the Slight and Moderate Risk regions, and individual members show widespread rain rates of 1-2 in/hr with isolated maxima approaching 3 in/hr. This seems reasonable based on the combination of moderate instability and 2+ inch PW values. Several areas of greater concern exist. First, from eastern Pennsylvania into the NYC metro area hi-res models generally have a stronger signal for rain rates exceeding 2 in/hr. The nose of stronger low-level moisture transport will be focused in this area as well, and GOES-16 visible satellite imagery indicates limited cloud cover as of 16Z, so considerable instability should be able to build (supporting higher rain rates). The second area of concern is near the Kentucky-Tennessee border, where convection is becoming aligned with the deep layer mean flow already, and the inflow region over Tennessee is strongly unstable with SBCAPE around 3000 j/kg at 16Z. Once again, the stronger instability may support a concentrated region where higher (2+ in/hr) rain rates are more likely. Finally, there is concern from far eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far southwest Pennsylvania. A stronger westerly component to the low-level flow may support a greater concentration of convection in the upslope regions of the Appalachians, and these areas of terrain can be more vulnerable to flash flooding. Furthermore, GPS observations just upstream in south-central Ohio show PW values near or in excess of 2 inches, which indicates significant, deep moisture impinging on the Appalachians. Therefore, flash flooding could also be more prevalent in these areas.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States into southern New England, as well as the Tennessee Valley, this afternoon to early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England... Additional amplification of the large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS will contribute to a slight cooling of mid-level temperatures and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft coincident with a slow-southeastward-moving front across the central Appalachians toward parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. The coverage of yesterday's storms across most of this region has impacted thermodynamic profiles, with surface temperatures/dewpoints running at least several degrees lower than this time (late morning/midday) yesterday. As noted in the prior Outlook discussion, 12Z soundings from Sterling, Wallops, Upton, Pittsburgh, and Wilmington OH all sampled mean mixing ratios about 2-3 g/kg lower compared to 12Z yesterday and have weaker mid-level lapse rates. That said, moisture will steadily recover and ample insolation is noted at midday across the Mid-Atlantic in the lee of the Appalachians, with MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg possible (highest near the coast). As compared to yesterday, somewhat stronger wind profiles between 2-6km AGL will also be a factor for individual storm longevity/organized storms. Multicells will be common and the possibility exists for a few transient supercells from far southern New York/northern New Jersey into southern New England. Damaging winds will be the most common risk through the afternoon into early evening. ...Mid-South and Tennessee Valley... A moist air mass (70-75F surface dewpoints) remains ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. As morning cloud cover thins, increasing cumuliform/thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon, particularly downstream of a pair of residual MCVs. Wet microbursts yielding localized wind damage will be the main risk. While weak vertical shear will tend to limit overall organization and risk magnitude, a somewhat more focused/organized severe risk may exist this afternoon into early evening across western/middle Tennessee and nearby southern Kentucky and perhaps northern portions of Mississippi/Alabama. Enhanced winds are noted with the MCV near the Mississippi River, with 30-40 kt west-southwesterly winds between 4-6 km in recent (16Z) Paducah, KY WFO-88D VWP data.

Right,CPC last update has no confidence in a Nina.Even down into the thermocline the last update from CPC is warmer.Nino conditions aren't going to go away any time soon it seems.

Nice cell going through here tonight The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Flood Advisory for... Central Marshall County in Middle Tennessee... West central Rutherford County in Middle Tennessee... Central Maury County in Middle Tennessee... Eastern Williamson County in Middle Tennessee... Northern Giles County in Middle Tennessee... * Until 915 PM CDT. * At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area. Doppler radar estimates up to two inches of rain has already fallen. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Franklin, Columbia, Lewisburg, Brentwood, Spring Hill, Nolensville, Thompson`s Station, Chapel Hill, Cornersville, Eagleville, Lynnville, Culleoka, I-65 East Of Columbia and Triune. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

Probably won't find many analogs for this ENSO.Generally when Nino starts in "ASO" it comes off of least a moderate Nino or develops into a moderate Nino latter months.I looked back on Webberwx and the closest i found was back into 1880.This was a historic time frame with blizzards into the Central Plains into especially the N/Plains with historic snow drifts with blizzards.tho yeah we live in a different era compared to back then,,the tropics were practically dead during this time frame in hurricane season in NA,maybe it's comparable to now ?Who knows.If it is we'll probably say hello to a decent SER this winter Edit:I put the wrong tropical map up,should have been 1881 not 1880

IMME is showing close to a NINA by Jan,really if you look at the thermocline's which are now inching the cooler waters above 100m you have to wonder what the next CCKW/MJO will do to it,and even the ones afterwards still more neutral but still negative /neutral,it still looks like it has a chance to be more Nina pattern into winter.With the warm SST's off the west coast of Fl into east coast,the IMME would surely suggest an SER.Good news we have a few months to figure out if it's wrong ,could be right tho

I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing

MCS dropped down from Kansas into the the Valley today has been showing signs of tropical genesis into the Northern gulf for a few days.We'll have to keep an eye out the next few days,could be some decent rains upcoming anyways for some especially the Eastern Valley ,but alot of uncertainty right now for tornado potential and the track it takes

Staying in Maryville for the weekend,when we got to Crossville yesterday the storms really got going,nice light show in Maryville last night. Nashville recorded it's 3rd wettest first half of the year this year on records

Enso took a hit the last pass of MJO and CCKW.Still looks Nino.The next MJO pass should/could possibly knock the snot out of it again especially with any decent CCKW

Looking like a pattern change towards the mid week and maybe even several days afterwards.Winds tho look really sad so the pattern would be more diurnal depending on shortwaves/MCS that could occur during this time.Towards the latter part of next week the models are dropping a CF down and potentially stalling it out into the OV which would keep us into the warm sector for at least diurnal thunderstorms, it seems right now.But of course all this could change with the future model runs Out in east Asia the GEFS and GEPS continues to show a seasonal Meiyu front.Euro and EPS don't seem so bullish with this right now,so we'll see if this does materialize. If it does you could see some catastrophic flooding into Southern Japan

1952 was rather hot in Mid/Tn.,the ENSO was as neutral as it could get for"MJJ" sitting at 0.0 on the ONI Middle Tennessee Weather History On June 30, 1952... Temperature at Nashville reaches 106, setting a record high for the month. It also marks the 8th consecutive day of 100+ readings, a record. Crossville sets both the daily record low and high for the date, with a morning reading of 52 degrees, and an afternoon mark of 93.

Not sure what to think about the upcoming pattern into July.The GEFS is tanking the AAM with MJO into phase 2 almost -2 sigma,fairly strong MJO signal for a model that has a bias to keep it out of this phase in the long range.Out in Asia the models are showing the seasonal Meiyu front,should keep a eye out into the China Sea towards Japan,tho the SST's are much cooler east of Japan.Those waters are warm into the China Sea and can have rapid intensification into a strong typhoon even though the models show nothing,remember Maria,last year?

We had some good storms Wed AND Thurs.Wednesday, we lost power for about 30 min.Thursday was even better,alot of tree damage with some heavy rain in Williamson Co,DBZ on my radar was over 50,at times i couldn't even see out my window for a few minutes, lasted about 20-30 minutes that was one of the best cells i've seen here in quite some time.

June is generally a quiet month,then gets even more so the next couple months. http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/

Models were showing a drying period this week now it's not looking so dry,Looks more diurnal though after today,no big system like the past,right now anyways.

Models are showing a ridge coming through East Asia Tuesday,but this looks more into NE China,could see some height rises into the Valley around the first of July.Don't see no big sustained warm up forth coming, right now anyways.Really wonder what will happen into July.The SOI totally tanked recently and the GEFS and basically it's esemble's shows the AAM going negative.MJO looks progressive as it gets into the Pac and could possibly get into the IO into July,not sure about this.Upcoming just as well the models continue to show a lot of convergence into the Yucatan and W/GOM in a few days,so probably need the watch for some possible tropical genesis upcoming.Lots to ponder it seems to me upcoming into July. 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 23 Jun 2019 1012.39 1013.75 -18.63 -9.41 -5.89 22 Jun 2019 1008.86 1013.55 -42.04 -9.54 -5.72 21 Jun 2019 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -8.78 -5.20 20 Jun 2019 1012.56 1014.05 -19.54 -7.80 -4.76 19 Jun 2019 1013.60 1014.00 -11.88 -7.35 -4.61 18 Jun 2019 1013.43 1013.75 -11.32 -7.25 -4.54

That's crazy,what do you avg a year?