jaxjagman

Thinks it's back to norm now,fingers crossed

Seems ok now

Maybe it's better now

Have to change colors to post,plus other than the post Chase made everyone else is posting in invisible ink,you can't see anyones post

Broke the record here yesterday,should go down again today.Doubt we hit 98 Sunday but the rest of these days it should go down.Good news anyways looks like a cold front Friday but like all the fronts it looks probably dry right now,but at least we could get more closer to climo with temps,but we need rain DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NASHVILLE Date Record Year Forecast Fri Sep 27 93 1998 93 Sat Sep 28 94 1986 95 Sun Sep 29 98 1953 96 Mon Sep 30 93 1953 97 Tue Oct 1 94 1953 97 Wed Oct 2 91 1953 95 Thu Oct 3 92 1903 93 DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT CROSSVILLE Date Record Year Forecast Fri Sep 27 87 1998 86 Sat Sep 28 87 1998 88 Sun Sep 29 84 1986 89 Mon Sep 30 86 1998 90 Tue Oct 1 84 1956 90 Wed Oct 2 86 1986 88 Thu Oct 3 84 1986 87 OCTOBER MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES Location Record Date Nashville 94 Oct 1 1953 Crossville 86 Oct 7 2007*

Thanks,believe the board did an update or upgrade one last night

Anyone having problems with the board? .

Yeah the weeklies were sad.Nashville is on pace to be the driest month in Sept on record for rains, 0.02.The previous was 0.13 back in 1903. National Weather Service Nashville TN 702 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... A weak cold front settled across the Tn Valley yesterday with scattered showers. Now the leftover moisture has helped produce pockets of dense fog, especially across the Upper Cumberland Region. A Dense Fog Advisory has already been issued for the northeast half of the Mid State. Satellite/vsby trends will be monitored and the advisory will be expanded farther southwest if needed. The dense fog will lift by 9 AM CDT. The diffuse frontal zone will lift northward today allowing hot and humid conditions to develop. As this happens, isolated showers or brief thunderstorms could form, mainly east of I-65. Otherwise, south winds will kick in and temperatures will climb into the summer-like lower 90s, except mid to upper 80s Plateau. Through the weekend and into next week, a strong upper level ridge will build with the main center across the Lower Ms Valley and Tn Valley Valley Regions. This will help boost high temperatures to record levels. Despite the impressive strength of the ridge, it will be a bit "dirty" with some pockets of moisture. The position of a surface high along the east coast will work with the moisture to produce isolated showers/storms at times mainly along the Cumberland Plateau. Unfortunately, this will not be enough rain to make a significant dent in the worsening drought and fire danger conditions. As we have been seeing for a while in this warm pattern, model guidance numbers are not nearly warm enough with the forecast highs. We will continue to go with our NBM (National Blend of Models) through the forecast period. Here are some BNA records for this forecast period... Date Hi Year Sep 28 94 1986 Sep 29 98 1953 Sep 30 93 1953 Oct 1 94 1953 Oct 2 91 1953 Oct 3 92 1903 Note: the all-time record high for October of 94 degrees at Nashville and 86 degrees at Crossville may be broken. The upper ridge will begin to weaken and shift back southeastward late next week, which may allow a weak cold front to make it down into Tennessee around Thursday. However, some models are keeping the ridge in place or only backing it off temporarily. Even if we get some showers and relief from the record heat, the overall warm and dry pattern is likely to continue well into October. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z SEP27 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) FRI 00Z 27-SEP 72.7 67.8 36003 61 FRI 06Z 27-SEP 72.7 67.3 67.3 64.6 07003 16 FRI 12Z 27-SEP 67.8 66.7 67.9 67.0 15005 0.00 0.00 71 FRI 18Z 27-SEP 90.6 67.9 90.8 63.4 21006 0.00 0.00 22 SAT 00Z 28-SEP 92.2 81.1 80.8 66.0 18005 0.01 0.00 18 SAT 06Z 28-SEP 80.8 74.8 74.8 65.7 17005 0.00 0.00 1 SAT 12Z 28-SEP 74.9 72.5 72.8 65.9 20004 0.00 0.00 5 SAT 18Z 28-SEP 92.6 72.8 92.7 61.3 22007 0.00 0.00 89 SUN 00Z 29-SEP 93.6 82.3 81.9 63.2 19004 0.00 0.00 60 SUN 06Z 29-SEP 81.9 73.3 73.7 64.1 14001 0.00 0.00 24 SUN 12Z 29-SEP 74.8 71.3 71.9 65.5 16004 0.00 0.00 67 SUN 18Z 29-SEP 92.8 71.9 92.8 61.5 21003 0.00 0.00 47 MON 00Z 30-SEP 93.7 83.9 83.7 65.7 11003 0.00 0.00 20 MON 06Z 30-SEP 84.2 75.4 75.2 65.1 18004 0.00 0.00 4 MON 12Z 30-SEP 75.2 71.7 72.2 67.3 16003 0.00 0.00 2 MON 18Z 30-SEP 93.4 72.1 93.6 65.2 22001 0.00 0.00 25 TUE 00Z 01-OCT 94.4 84.7 84.4 70.1 12001 0.00 0.00 11 TUE 06Z 01-OCT 84.5 77.2 77.1 67.9 19004 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 12Z 01-OCT 77.2 74.0 74.5 67.2 17005 0.00 0.00 5 TUE 18Z 01-OCT 94.0 74.5 94.1 64.3 24003 0.00 0.00 27 WED 00Z 02-OCT 94.9 85.4 85.1 66.6 14003 0.00 0.00 18 WED 06Z 02-OCT 85.2 76.9 76.8 65.8 20004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 02-OCT 76.9 73.2 73.9 65.4 18004 0.00 0.00 5 WED 18Z 02-OCT 94.6 73.9 94.7 62.8 27003 0.00 0.00 23 THU 00Z 03-OCT 95.5 85.2 84.9 66.0 05001 0.00 0.00 29 THU 06Z 03-OCT 85.2 77.5 77.4 65.2 19004 0.00 0.00 15 THU 12Z 03-OCT 77.5 73.5 74.0 66.1 24003 0.00 0.00 12 THU 18Z 03-OCT 95.1 73.9 95.1 64.0 29004 0.00 0.00 42 FRI 00Z 04-OCT 95.2 86.0 85.6 63.7 33004 0.00 0.00 27 FRI 06Z 04-OCT 85.6 76.9 76.8 65.1 36006 0.00 0.00 10 FRI 12Z 04-OCT 76.8 71.5 71.5 66.9 01005 0.00 0.00 22 FRI 18Z 04-OCT 91.1 71.5 91.3 64.5 36004 0.00 0.00 8 SAT 00Z 05-OCT 92.4 84.0 83.7 61.6 00006 0.00 0.00 21 SAT 06Z 05-OCT 83.7 75.2 75.1 61.3 04005 0.00 0.00 7 SAT 12Z 05-OCT 75.1 70.8 70.9 60.4 07004 0.00 0.00 17 SAT 18Z 05-OCT 92.6 70.9 92.8 63.1 24002 0.00 0.00 29 SUN 00Z 06-OCT 94.0 82.2 81.9 64.9 16004 0.01 0.00 37 SUN 06Z 06-OCT 81.9 76.3 76.4 64.4 16005 0.00 0.00 19 SUN 12Z 06-OCT 76.9 75.1 75.1 65.1 16006 0.00 0.00 30 SUN 18Z 06-OCT 93.1 75.1 93.3 59.9 20004 0.00 0.00 12 MON 00Z 07-OCT 94.7 80.7 80.4 62.2 10005 0.01 0.00 54

Believe the RMMM'S are seeing nothing but destructive interference with the MJO.Think it's more progressive than what they are showing upcoming.

Highly variable conditions were observed across the South, with intense late-summer heat and acute short-term dryness in southwestern and northeastern portions of the region contrasting with heavy to excessive rainfall across the west-central Gulf Coast and from western Texas northeastward into central and southern Oklahoma. Tropical Storm Imelda moved slowly ashore near Freeport, Texas, drifting northward while producing prodigious rainfall totals (20-30 inches, locally more) south and east of Houston. Heavy rain (2-8 inches) was also noted further inland across eastern Texas, western Louisiana, and southeastern Oklahoma, easing or alleviating Abnormal Dryness (D0) as well as Moderate to Severe Drought (D1 and D2). Farther west, widespread heavy showers (1-5 inches, locally more) from Texas’ Big Bend northeastward into central and southeastern Oklahoma (a peak value of 7.66 inches was noted in Antlers, OK) likewise supported aggressive reductions to drought intensity and coverage. Conversely, excessive heat (daytime highs approaching or topping 100°F) and pronounced short-term dryness (60-day rainfall totaling locally less than 20 percent of normal) heightened evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture losses, resulting in quickly escalating drought impacts (often referred to as a “flash drought”.) It should be noted that “flash drought” impacts often arise more quickly than the rainfall data would suggest due to the accompanying heat. For this week’s analysis, the expansion of D0 (Abnormal Dryness) as well as Moderate (D1) to Extreme Drought (D3) was driven by guidance from local experts, impact reports from observers, as well as temperature- and rainfall-driven data products which focused on the past 60 to 90 days. Increases in drought were most pronounced from the Rio Grande toward Dallas, Texas, and from the central Delta into Tennessee. State-wide average topsoil moisture was rated more than 70 percent short to very short (according to USDA-NASS) as of September 22 in Arkansas (78 percent poor to very poor), Mississippi (83 percent), and Tennessee (89 percent, a 14-point jump over last week).

Sure we're next

I'd be careful using the CFS forecast of the MJO.What it seems to be seeing is the westerly wind burst ongoing which looks like it will help generate a new Kelvin Wave possibly upcoming into the Eastern Pacific

So much for a cool down,looks like the same old story

Looks warm ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z SEP22 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 22-SEP 0.6 2.3 6 -1 10 5 SUN 18Z 22-SEP 11.6 4.9 2 -6 10 8 MON 00Z 23-SEP 6.4 6.1 0 -40 10 11 MON 06Z 23-SEP 1.7 4.0 0 -44 10 9 MON 12Z 23-SEP -0.5 2.5 1 -44 8 7 MON 18Z 23-SEP 11.5 4.9 -3 26 7 9 TUE 00Z 24-SEP 6.3 5.3 -4 46 5 8 TUE 06Z 24-SEP 2.6 1.7 -4 -13 3 7 TUE 12Z 24-SEP -1.6 -0.4 -2 -40 3 5 TUE 18Z 24-SEP 7.7 0.9 -4 -38 2 6 WED 00Z 25-SEP 3.0 2.3 -6 1038 -38 39.33 2 7 WED 06Z 25-SEP -2.2 1.7 -5 1058 -40 39.33 1 6 WED 12Z 25-SEP -4.0 2.4 -4 1071 -39 39.33 1 5 WED 18Z 25-SEP 11.4 4.9 -7 1022 -34 39.33 2 8 THU 00Z 26-SEP 6.4 6.8 -8 19 2 9 THU 06Z 26-SEP 0.7 6.7 -6 26 3 8 THU 12Z 26-SEP 1.4 5.0 -5 26 3 7 THU 18Z 26-SEP 13.4 6.4 -6 25 5 10 FRI 00Z 27-SEP 7.6 6.7 -5 26 7 11 FRI 06Z 27-SEP 3.0 7.4 -3 14 8 11 FRI 12Z 27-SEP 2.2 7.4 -1 21 8 9 FRI 18Z 27-SEP 17.4 9.5 -3 30 9 11 SAT 00Z 28-SEP 10.5 8.9 -2 12 10 11 SAT 06Z 28-SEP 5.9 7.6 0 6 11 11 SAT 12Z 28-SEP 4.0 7.1 3 31 11 9 SAT 18Z 28-SEP 15.8 8.3 1 23 13 11 SUN 00Z 29-SEP 10.4 8.7 1 16 13 12 SUN 06Z 29-SEP 4.8 7.9 3 8 14 12 SUN 12Z 29-SEP 2.8 6.9 4 1 14 10 SUN 18Z 29-SEP 16.3 8.7 2 -2 14 13 MON 00Z 30-SEP 10.2 9.5 0 -2 14 13 MON 06Z 30-SEP 4.1 8.5 2 -16 14 12 MON 12Z 30-SEP 2.2 7.2 4 -11 14 11 MON 18Z 30-SEP 15.9 8.7 1 -8 14 13 TUE 00Z 01-OCT 10.5 10.2 -1 -1 14 14 TUE 06Z 01-OCT 4.2 8.8 1 -22 13 13 TUE 12Z 01-OCT 2.8 7.1 2 -25 13 12 TUE 18Z 01-OCT 16.2 8.7 -1 -26 14 14 WED 00Z 02-OCT 10.2 8.9 -1 -25 14 14 WED 06Z 02-OCT 4.7 7.2 0 -34 13 13 WED 12Z 02-OCT 2.9 6.0 2 -31 13 12

In the mean time once again the Euro has been to cool,not horrid tho with dp's in the low 50's,be interesting tho if we break the record back into 1954,89 today Lat: 36.12°NLon: 86.69°WElev: 597ft. Partly Cloudy 91°F 33°C

Looking at some of the stats up top for the warmest year with 90+ temps in Nashville,only last year,2018 year wasn't an actual LaNina year into Winter time,but the ENSO was much warmer east of the IDL compared to this year.Last year we was getting rid of a drought into this month,this year we are gaining.In the mean time SUB-X shows some relief in temps,believe tho this is more potential tropical genesis into the GOM this certainly is possible with the MJO as strong as it is being shown and with the passing of a CCKW

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 400 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019 ...NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE NEARING RECORDS FOR MOST 90 DEGREE DAYS IN A YEAR AND DRIEST SEPTEMBER... UNUSUALLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER HAS CONTINUED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS THANKS TO A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN A YEAR TO APPROACH NEAR-RECORD LEVELS. IN ADDITION, THE LACK OF RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONTH HAS NOW MADE THIS SEPTEMBER ONE OF THE DRIEST ON RECORD IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TOP 5 YEARS WITH MOST 90 DEGREE DAYS IN NASHVILLE RANK # OF DAYS YEAR 1 96 DAYS 1954 2 87 DAYS 2019* 3 87 DAYS 2016 4 86 DAYS 2018 5 82 DAYS 2010 * AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18 TOP 5 YEARS WITH MOST 90 DEGREE DAYS IN CROSSVILLE RANK # OF DAYS YEAR 1 45 DAYS 1954 2 40 DAYS 1993 3 34 DAYS 1980 4 26 DAYS 1988 5 24 DAYS 1990 31 5 DAYS 2019* * AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18 TOP 5 DRIEST SEPTEMBERS IN NASHVILLE RANK TOTAL RAINFALL YEAR 1 0.01 IN 2019* 2 0.13 IN 1903 3 0.19 IN 1897 4 0.21 IN 2014 5 0.28 IN 1956 * AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18 TOP 5 DRIEST SEPTEMBERS IN CROSSVILLE RANK TOTAL RAINFALL YEAR 1 0.34 IN 2019* 2 0.66 IN 1984 3 0.83 IN 2016 4 0.89 IN 1961 5 1.10 IN 1999 * AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18 CLIMATE RECORDS FOR NASHVILLE BEGAN IN 1871. CLIMATE RECORDS FOR CROSSVILLE BEGAN IN 1954.

We are in our worse drought sorta speaking since since 1954 in the Tn Valley,around Nashville is on pace to be the driest for Sept and even warmest on record with temps of 90 plus for the year,seems like a more LaNina but isnt.i have hard time to believe this will be cold and not warm in our area especially if we don't get any rain upcoming into our dry Oct season upcoming

Unfortunate we are headed into one of the driest months of the year,Oct., if we don't get much rains upcoming the rest of this month Nashville could have the driest Sept on record..The MJO signal is really strong looking into phase 1,this seemingly this time of year smells some sort of ridge into early Oct but we'll see beyond that.Everytime the PNA in the long range shows some relief and goes positive it abruptly switches out and goes negative once again which it what we see today.The drought monitor today showed a big spike in the Valley,more than i thought it might show.Totally difference from last year to this year,if i recall right into the 3rd week of Sept of last year we was talking about flooding,now drought this year

You made me go look at ours,we haven't hit 100 in 7 years,1952 in Clarksville.36-days of 100+,must of been some death ridge over them,the ENSO was basically neutral through out the spring through the rest of the year https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1952.9932221?journalCode=vwws20

It was hot here today as well,hit 99 and broke this record Middle Tennessee Weather History On September 16, 1927... Very summer-like weather is felt across the mid state. The afternoon temperature hits 98 degrees at Nashville.

Possibly 1.2 might be there the next update tomorrow or darn near close..3 has cooled of as well with the CCKW passing through

IMME

BNA hit 91 at 1PM ,so the countdown continues to see if we can breach 90+here in the Mid Valley for a year,record is 96,currently 88

We got "1 of snow on Nov 2,1954.which is rare for us,usually this time of year it's either cold rain or thunderstorms but temps dropped to 21 that night.Spring of 1954 was the start of a long lived LaNina that went strong into 1955 towards the end of that year.During Nov into Dec the EPO looked to avg -0.50,this must have been good enough for even Tallahassee,Fl.had 11 days during Dec of 1954 that made it below freezing,that's even just as weird to me.But having a warm spell like in a LaNina year into summer of 1954 doesn't seem much out of place,sorta speaking.