jaxjagman

Nice bowed cell with some wind headed towards us,hope it dont fizzle out Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 846 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019 TNZ025>027-057-059-060-070245- Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Maury TN-Cheatham TN- 846 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAVIDSON...SOUTHEASTERN DICKSON...NORTH CENTRAL MAURY...WILLIAMSON...SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM AND NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT... At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles southeast of Burns, or near Bon Aqua, moving east at 40 mph. Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, White Bluff, Belle Meade, Kingston Springs, Thompson`s Station, Pegram, Burns, Bellevue, Antioch, Fairview, Berry Hill, Primm Springs, Natchez Trace At Highway 96, Triune and Leipers Fork. This includes the following highways... Interstate 40 between mile markers 176 and 199. Interstate 65 between mile markers 58 and 80. Interstate 24 between mile markers 53 and 61. Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 43. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CFS continues to be consistent with a WWB east of 120W then runs into a robust Rossby and weakens it,still have to watch out for a potential to initiate a KW,the subsurface continues to warm east of the IDL.

Be nice to see the phoon re-curve further east for a change.Going with the Euro it's going to hit SE Japan and then get absorbed by the half way decent trough moving through East Asia around D8, by the Euro this afternoon,we could possibly have a trough in the east,roughly around 15-16 days give or take if it is right

Some convection around around our area,getting a little rain so far.HRRR shows the LLJ kicking up along with the low level shear, in a few hours,should kick up some good rains west of I-65 later on tonight,it's good news for us as we went into a severe drought last week,per the drought monitor

Probably have to wait and see,never like to see a drought this time of season.Seasonals should start rolling out anytime,really like to see what they show

Easterlies into the IO today shows it weakens sooner than what CFS has been showing recently,not really sure where the MJO will come out or how strong it will be.Still looks like a WWB around 120W,but there seems to be a more robust Rossby Wave today this could kill off the wind burst,you can see this around 120W,i still believe this will be possible to kick up a Kelvin east of the IDL

Our grass right now when you walk on it is like if you put a hand full of chips in your hand and squeeze them,crunch,crunch.The foliage is just as sad,with some trees already changing colors and the others the leaves are just drooping downwards to the ground,pretty sad. SPC has west of I-65 in a marginal risk tomorrow,right now the Euro strenghtens the LLJ's into Mid Valley into the east,so chances are if you were to get a severe t-storm with wind,leave loss could be sig.Not a great year for foliage for sure

Agree,SE also is getting into a severe drought,we really need something to thump them hard

Not sure what to think about this winter.I'm on the side right now for the ENSO to be on the warmer side into winter.More Nino and not neutral.The easterlies into the IO are the strongest they've been since 2001,but this was a ending of a LaNina year early on that stayed neutral negative the rest of the year in 2001.The sea ice is competing with 2012 for an annual low,which there was a severe drought into into the plains and even into parts of the SE in 2012,but either way this year will be well below the median from 1981-2010 early on

Trough going through East Asia today and then a couple more right now every 3-4 days after, showing by the Euro,so seemingly we could have 3 troughs upcoming after this one in a couple days,but we'll see.Seems like after that lots of of uncertainy,where is the MJO? If the easterlies into the IO is RIGHT by the CFS this could last into Nov.So the MJO could become incoherent upcoming.Seems like this is what the seasonal European Centre is showing,tho certainly with spread.Think like Jeff said we'll warm up again just after the mid month

Surface and subsurface east of the IDL continue to warm,tho it's still cool into the subsurface around east of 120W.CFS shows a WWB making it slightly past 120W before it meets a Rossby wave and weakens it mid month,but this could help initiate a KW east of the IDL,so if were to be right you'd see some slight warming into 3 past the mid month i'd think

US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee The temperature at the Nashville International Airport has reached 98° for a second straight day. This obviously ties the all-time record high for October that was set yesterday, and breaks the record for October 2 by a whopping 7°. The previous record of 91° was set in 1953. Also, today is the 97th time we have reached 90° in 2019, which sets a new record for 90° days in a single year. We have one more day of extreme heat to endure before cooler, wetter weather makes it's long-overdue appearance. It's about to be fall, y'all.

US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee Well, we've gone and done it now. At 11:56 a.m., the temperature at the Nashville International Airport reached 95°, which makes today the warmest October day in the city's history. The previous record of 94° was set on October 1, 1953. In addition, this is the 96th time we have reached 90° or better in 2019, tying the 1954 record for most 90° days in a single year.

Seems like the GFS and Euro met somewhat halfway last night,weak and weaker instability.Nothing much to see right now.Good news i reckon seems like over an inch of rain,least right now.

Be nice to watch and hear some good t-storms Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive pattern at mid/upper levels is forecast through the extended forecast period. An upper trough/low should move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Thursday. A cold front is also expected to shift quickly eastward parts of these regions. Minimal instability is currently shown by medium-range guidance ahead of the front, owing mainly to poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, severe potential Thursday afternoon ahead of the front appears low. Another upper trough should amplify and shift eastward across the western CONUS and into the Plains from Day 4/Thursday into Day 5/Friday. There is still variability with the amplitude of this feature by Day 5/Friday, which impacts the degree of low-level mass response and moisture return across the Plains. Some severe risk may ultimately develop Friday evening/night across part of the central Plains, but this threat may remain rather isolated. There is currently too much uncertainty regarding instability and the evolution of the upper trough to include any probabilities for organized severe thunderstorms. Differences regarding the evolution of the upper trough across the Plains and eastern CONUS become much more pronounced from Day 6/Saturday onward. Still, depending on low-level moisture return, there may be isolated severe potential across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast next weekend into early next week ahead of a cold front. However, overall predictability remains far too low to include any areas at this time.

3.4 is back to 0.5

Makes you ponder about global warming,just saying,Everything seems out of sync

Still really weird as Carver mentioned 1954,this was like the the start of a long lived LaNina that went into a strong LaNina into the winter of 1955.Seems like right now as i posted on the ENSO thread seems like we could get into a Nino pattern vs a Nina upcoming

Didnt think we'd get close to 98 but we tied the record today,next few days looks like records will go down

Enso has warmed east of the IDL recently.CFS today is showing another WWB into week 1 of Oct that looks to make it past 120W into the 2nd week of Oct,this would be the strongest WWB in that area since the first of July. 3.4 has been warming the last couple weeks and for that matter every region has been rising,3,4 should stay that way and make no significant drop,As far as 3 rises much upcoming would depend on a Rossby and Kelvin waves.

We'll have to wait and see if it's right,looks to be a KW into the Eastern Pac today and with the MJO will possibly kick off some tropical cyclogenesis into the GOM,at the same time a cold front swings through,seems like the perfect storm for us right now as dry as we've been

I'll believe it when i see it ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z SEP29 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 29-SEP 82.5 65.2 15005 93 SUN 06Z 29-SEP 82.8 75.1 75.0 66.2 18003 40 SUN 12Z 29-SEP 75.0 71.7 72.2 66.2 17004 0.00 0.00 12 SUN 18Z 29-SEP 91.8 72.2 91.9 64.1 20003 0.00 0.00 31 MON 00Z 30-SEP 92.8 83.8 83.5 66.9 15005 0.00 0.00 27 MON 06Z 30-SEP 83.5 76.0 75.8 68.8 15003 0.00 0.00 84 MON 12Z 30-SEP 75.8 73.0 73.3 68.6 16003 0.00 0.00 36 MON 18Z 30-SEP 94.2 73.4 94.4 64.3 23003 0.00 0.00 28 TUE 00Z 01-OCT 95.2 86.2 85.6 66.3 12003 0.00 0.00 11 TUE 06Z 01-OCT 85.6 76.3 76.2 65.1 18003 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 01-OCT 76.2 71.2 72.1 65.1 18003 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 01-OCT 95.8 72.1 96.0 60.1 24002 0.00 0.00 27 WED 00Z 02-OCT 97.2 85.8 85.6 63.8 07002 0.00 0.00 4 WED 06Z 02-OCT 86.0 76.2 76.1 60.9 17004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 02-OCT 76.6 74.2 74.5 63.2 19005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 02-OCT 96.3 74.5 96.5 60.4 28004 0.00 0.00 17 THU 00Z 03-OCT 97.4 86.8 86.4 62.6 24002 0.00 0.00 11 THU 06Z 03-OCT 86.5 76.7 76.6 64.2 29004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 03-OCT 77.9 73.3 73.4 65.2 21002 0.00 0.00 4 THU 18Z 03-OCT 95.7 73.3 95.9 63.5 30004 0.00 0.00 17 FRI 00Z 04-OCT 96.6 86.7 86.6 65.4 26002 0.00 0.00 34 FRI 06Z 04-OCT 86.6 78.5 78.3 63.8 36007 0.00 0.00 11 FRI 12Z 04-OCT 78.3 71.3 71.3 65.4 01006 0.00 0.00 17 FRI 18Z 04-OCT 87.7 71.3 87.9 64.6 02006 0.00 0.00 29 SAT 00Z 05-OCT 89.6 81.6 81.3 61.8 02007 0.00 0.00 4 SAT 06Z 05-OCT 81.3 73.1 72.9 59.0 04005 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 12Z 05-OCT 72.9 69.1 69.2 58.9 06004 0.00 0.00 3 SAT 18Z 05-OCT 92.5 69.2 92.7 62.7 18004 0.00 0.00 8 SUN 00Z 06-OCT 94.1 76.5 76.3 71.4 33004 0.07 0.00 69 SUN 06Z 06-OCT 76.6 73.8 76.2 65.5 15008 0.02 0.00 27 SUN 12Z 06-OCT 77.3 74.2 74.7 66.6 17010 0.00 0.00 20 SUN 18Z 06-OCT 87.6 74.7 86.9 65.5 19009 0.01 0.00 39 MON 00Z 07-OCT 88.1 74.5 74.5 69.6 16004 0.11 0.00 56 MON 06Z 07-OCT 75.0 69.6 69.4 68.8 16007 0.39 0.00 96 MON 12Z 07-OCT 69.5 68.6 68.8 68.6 17008 0.23 0.00 100 MON 18Z 07-OCT 72.6 68.8 72.1 70.8 19008 0.41 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 08-OCT 73.4 68.7 68.6 68.5 17005 0.60 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 08-OCT 69.1 68.1 68.2 68.0 16007 0.64 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 08-OCT 69.3 65.7 65.2 64.6 23010 0.95 0.00 93 TUE 18Z 08-OCT 65.7 59.9 63.2 50.7 24011 0.02 0.00 100 WED 00Z 09-OCT 63.7 59.4 59.3 46.6 26008 0.00 0.00 86

Its so odd tho with the ENSO,IN 1953 next week where record temps are showing possible this was in a Nino in 1953 that went into a long lived LaNina, the oceans right now look like they might warm into a ElNino and not LaNina upcoming,maybe more emphasis into global warming?Not sure

Probably the best trough we've seen since spring time in East Asia if it teleconnects right would be another decent cool down towards the middle of the month,The Euro is already hinting at building the Upper Level Ridge tho once again after the cool down possibly next weekend afterwards,could be just another dry front.It's really tough to get rid of a drought than get into one,we seen this recently

We didn't break our record today,thanks to more clouds held the thermals down but we did hit 92. The MJO on the RMM'S continue to show it stalled out into P1,i'm starting to think they may be right as a Rossby Wave is going through the IO then into Africa upcoming days helping stop the progression of it,but we'll see.MV's maps has done rather well tho and still shows it more progressive.Probably need to wait and see at this stage.good news tho the Euro still shows a cold front towards Friday and closer to seasonal temps,bad news it still looks dry right now