jaxjagman

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday. Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited. ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity... A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent, intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode evolution (QLCS and supercells). The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these features become better resolved. ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast... The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South. Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent). However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states... The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be limited by widespread training precipitation. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025

Sorry.cut the time stamp out

Still think you run with the ensembles right now,think this is his time frame hes using,i know you could get severe with DP'S in the 50's but come on now,but you still shouldnt make these vids on social media,i'm fine with a couple days out

But i dont see no reason to hype a storm 5-6 days out on social media,it could still change especially,which he is using the GFS

Hes not right though hes going by the soundings,not the maps,there is an iversion into the OV

He might ne talking about Timmer https://x.com/i/status/1898784642007707656

Yes,even the GFS shows storm mode wont get cranking until after the inversion breaks down around give or take sunset Friday,Thats still days away so much can change between now and then like you mentioned

NSSL

.LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025 Warm and dry, spring-like conditions will be in place Tuesday and Wednesday as dry high pressure remains in control with an upper level ridge extending west to east across the southern states. Temperatures will run around 15 degrees above normal with daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows mostly in the 40s and 50s. South to southwest winds will pick up a little Tuesday into Wednesday, and this could boost temps even warmer than our forecast values, perhaps around 80 in some spots. By Wednesday afternoon, a compact shortwave will bring stormy wx to the ArkLaTex spreading to the Mid South. It appears the system will weaken by the time it reaches us Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder, but we do not expect any severe wx and average rainfall amounts will be less than one quarter inch for locations that receive rain. Otherwise, the warm pattern will continue late this week with Friday temps well into the 70s to around 80. Unfortunately, we are seeing a much stronger system with potential for widespread stormy wx this weekend. A large and deep low pressure system with a trailing cold front will form over the Plains Friday, then move eastward Saturday and Saturday night. The main surface low is expected to track well to our north, up into the Great Lakes, but this expansive system could bring severe wx all the way from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast. As one would expect in this forecast timeframe, there are many uncertainties including the exact strength and track of the system, return moisture quality, surface instability, and timing of the cold front. What we can say with some confidence for Middle Tennessee is the weekend looks quite breezy with showers and storms and heavy downpours at times. Rain probabilities are around 80 percent for Saturday with an 80 percent chance for more than 1 inch of rain. Some models are suggesting higher totals well over 2 inches for the weekend! The severe storm potential (damaging winds, hail, tornadoes) will come into better focus as we go through the week, so stay tuned.

Euro has been the last couple runs trending to more like the last system,There is some vast differences right now especially in the Atlantic and Pac but even that could change this far out,just a observation anways

I agree,still should potentially be looking at a active period upcoming.MJO is fixing to have destructive interference with the signal into the the IO/Maritime quite a few RMMM's take it into the COD just past Mid March , but seemingly right now could eject fast into the WH,least both the CFS and Euro are showing this which would be as we get into the later part of April quite interesting

Possibly a more wide spread threat towards and into next weekemd

The ENSO thread on the main page has become an IMBY thread,it use to be a functional thread or somewhat at one time,its annoying to me now to even look at,just saying.You should see as the MJO stalls out into the IO or progressive slowly,this should strenghten NINA into the upcoming weeks

Like to see what the JMA shows the next few days,These ERW'S are much slower than Kelvin,i think the Euro mean this afternoon is right to a certain extent but ,i really believe the MJO signal should stay into the IO past mid March and longer,really think its gonna be a active pattern we start to see,like Jeff said in the spring thread,buckle up !!

Think we are fixing to get into a real active pattern as we get into Mid March,the Euro mean has been showing this the last couple days the MJO should stall out as its in Africa/Western IO for a few days basically from a ERW,it should eject into the IO days after,you should be seeing these more amplified troughs progress into East Asia like the Euro is showing as the MJO chugs along towards the Maritime.JMHO and not a forecast

We'll see if anything mischievous happens happens during this time

You must have been close to my house,what part of Brentwood was this?

Just to clarify myself,i do agree with you in Tn

Could be right,climo alot of Tn is around mid March,but in occasion this time of year you can still get one.I know we did get a tornado in the first of March of 2017,but Vortex is in Ms., its climo for them

I dunno,its still 4 days out you still will see changes i believe.Its getting into NAM now but i wouldnt trust it 84 HRS out, but sometimes it does pull a rabbit out of its hat..lol.

Believe myself, but what is happening in east Australia it seems these tropical systems are from CCKW'S,out into the IO is seemingly is a ERW. moving through the IO,this seemingly will stall out the MJO signal into Africa,Western IO upcoming https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-pacific-tropical-cyclones-rae-seru-alfred-unusual/

Still think the next chance of severe should come into wk 2 of March.Euro is showing a trough into East China /Yellow Sea with a ridge over Japan.IMO this could be a trough in the plains with a ridge in the east.Still should be around the 11-12th

Pretty impressive dynamical system right now being shown by the Euro this afternoon what ever happens, on the time stamp on the pic the pressure drops to 979MB