jaxjagman

If you ask me this pattern we are fixing to get looks more severe in early Dec,You got heights rising before t-giving into the Sea of Okhotsk,with a trough in East Asia and rising heights into Mongolia

East Asia gives you some insight of the pattern ahead,yes its never gonna be right because we have different teleconnections,sorta speaking.But honesltly 1,E,you see a ridge building into Mongolia into maybe even Russia,nothing but a trough in a few days as we head towards T-GIVING

In case you dont have this you can look at Planetary and Equatorial Waves using the Euro Modes,ill shut up now

GEFS looks more Euro now with any SSW,you can see it here

Id agree with what Jeff said up above .We seem to be seeing the the SSW underway with the sharp rise in temps into the stratosphere but even so ,the cold seems to be getting pushed back seemingly each day.The JMA right now shows a strong MJO signal in the WP into the first of Dec,while this isnt bad it still should have reflection to more or less a SER,just transient cold shots.Might not be a bad thing if you want a cold Christmas or even possibly beyond that for a couple weeks anyways

Cool,he finally got this running again

LOL Looks like the quite a few members jumped the train today...lol

Thinking the same thing @ Carver.Like Jeff metioned a week or two ago,its gonna take a couple CF's to beat down the SER,before it can get really cold,otherwise its just gonna be transient cool down i agree also the Euro suites struggle with systems out west,more than likely today with that trough out west.GEFS dont show much change today,not perfect but not as extreme as the EPS

See what it shows this afternoon,shouild update in about a hr and a half

EPS seems to be having a rough time to have such volatile swings

The map he showed was the OZ,i assume early this morning,mine was yesterday afternoon,so it must have changed between

I seen that this morning,

Euro backed off from any SSW upcoming with not much of any wind reversal to what its been showing.JMA has the temps around -65C which is around what the Euro shows last update,Euro only shows the temps will get close to -60C in 10 days,so right now no SSW just some weakening,least not right now

BOM has the reconstructed MJO back to 1975 here,i know you look at analogs all the time maybe that can help out some https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

I got cut off for a few min,kinda busy ATM,but by those pics seemingly shows into the 2nd week of Dec into the WP just constructive interference from Rossbly.Kelvin which looks like the MJO is into the Maritime/WP,but its not.Its still in the WH and getting into the IO towards the end of the month of Dec,