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About jaxjagman

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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KBNA
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Location:
Franklin,TN
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Its still a unique NINO and will probably carry its own anologs into winter.The DMI or Indian ocean diphole if you wanna call it doesnt even rank this around a top ten event per JMA Mean while a couple its ensemble members seems to join camp show now this might be the strongest ever,duuno This seemingly shows no break down into the Walker Circulation with the trades coming off Africa and not South America,in which the few few days should probably kick off the Sahara dust. Gernerally the IOD falls into fall just as well does the PDO but the PDO can fluctuate into winter -
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Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
its 15 days out but still wild to look at if its true,that ridge has been there most of the summer off southeast Japan,it hasnt allowed any typhoons to go other than in East China,youd like to see this get displaced ,broke down or something,everytime its been showing this it builds back up im a couple days -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We had a -PDO back into 1972 into the June,and in August was one of the strongest solar storms on record.The CME reached earth in 14+ hours,that must have been one impressive storm to blow sea mines in the VietNam War,if that is true,but that must have been a quite an impressive light show either way -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah until that pesky ridge off SoithEastern Japan breaks down it shouldnt happen.Everytime you see long range models trying to show this in the long range is from troughs to fast or just not strong enough to do it to some extent and even when its gets broke down or shunted east it build back in the same parts in days -
Guess the good news is its not July,August otherwise a ridge is setiing in the next couple days and probably should be a fixture the next several days
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NINO looks still strong to me,you even see another strong WWB into Sept with hardly any EWB,start seeing EWB around South America should be one of the first signs the Walker Circulation is breaking down,until then
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That not true to some extent,while the 82-83 strong NINO showed a -PDO into srping it went positive into summer.That 82-83 winter was quite uniques alone which had the help of a EQBO and not a WQBO this year
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I agree with you,it dont seem like when the monthly updates you should see much change with a typhoon going into East China the next couple days.Look at how warm those SST's are east Japan into the Pac.Its rare in a strong NINO to even witness this -
PDO next update shouldnt change much with a typhoon headed into east China the next couple days.Maybe this winter will have its own analogs,but i wouldn't rely on a +PDO,probably wont happen ATM,thats rare in a strong NINO those SSTS east of Japan,lets go skiing in West Japan this winter?Very unique pattern regardless
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
PDO is gonna fluctuate by the tropical PAC,strong WWB along with Rossbly Waves its gonna get quite active in the PAC the next few weels.Last thing is wanna see is another typhoon hitting East China,which seemingly might happen again -
Last typhoon that hit East China warmed the SSTS off East Asia especially East off Japan.Still myself would rather to see the PDO right now to rise and not fall.We might be seeing a repeat of the pattern we are in as we get closer to end of August into Sept. That strong WWB ongoing along with the Rossbly Waves should really kick off some tropical storms in the PAC the next few weeks
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Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
93 right now,not sure we will hit triple digits,but should make a decent un at it,unlike yesterday there are no clouds today -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This thread has become into a bitch session from i said and you said and im right and you are wrong,its become quite comical ,its not even weather realated and some of yall talk about humility, you should act it than preach it
