jaxjagman

GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 11/25/25 Valid - 12/03/25 - 12/16/25 Recent observations of tropical convection and the global tropical circulation indicate that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains active, with the enhanced convective phase over the West Pacific. Little eastward propagation was evident on the RMM-based MJO index during the past two weeks, however, fluctuations in amplitude are indicative of interference from other modes of variability. The biggest disruptor to the ongoing MJO evolution is the low-frequency La Niña base state, which is preventing upper-level easterlies, low-level westerlies, and widespread convection from crossing the equatorial central Pacific. Enhanced convection is crossing the central Pacific away from the Equator, however, especially along the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) region. Time-longitude analyses of the low-level zonal wind field reveals two distinct features propagating eastward: a slowly evolving envelope of westerly anomalies that has progressed from the Indian Ocean in October to the far western Pacific by mid- to late November, and a faster moving signal, likely Kelvin wave activity, that is circumnavigating the globe. As this latter signal comes into phase with the slower evolving signal, westerly wind bursts have occurred, followed by a period of increasing disorganization. Dynamical model forecasts are in good agreement that a period of constructive interference between these two signals will occur in late November and early December, resulting in a disruption of the La Niña trade wind regime over the west-central Pacific, and a rapid amplification of the RMM-based MJO index in Phase-7. Beyond this period, the faster moving mode becomes more unpredictable and may not well capture an easterly phase of the Kelvin wave, but the slower-evolving low-level westerlies are favored to continue impacting the Pacific basin into mid-December. A potential second enhancement of the MJO signal is clearly depicted in both the GEFS and ECMWF model systems during late December over the East Pacific, likely tied to another period of constructive interference between the slowly propagating signal and the Kelvin wave activity. Based on this guidance, the MJO is favored to remain active, and may become the dominant contributor to the global tropical convective pattern during early December. Pacific MJO events teleconnect well with the midlatitude circulation during the Boreal winter season, and may contribute to a reinforcement of ridging across western North America and troughing over eastern North America. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php

Believe the GFS and Euro are killing the MJO off to fast in the WP mainly because of a Kelvin Wave is causing destructive interference.MJO is more than likely still active and moving

SOI has been fairly chaotic as of late,ups and downs,the last couple weeks,big drop two days ago,ensembles were looking severe last weekend into the first part of Dec,not no more 25 Nov 2025 1009.58 1005.50 7.63 16.34 9.25 24 Nov 2025 1007.56 1004.90 -1.40 17.10 9.38 23 Nov 2025 1009.73 1000.85 38.17 17.97 9.60 22 Nov 2025 1011.59 1003.75 31.56 17.51 9.41 21 Nov 2025 1011.94 1004.90 26.47 17.04 9.28 20 Nov 2025 1013.02 1005.20 31.43 16.68 9.16 19 Nov 2025 1013.90 1005.00 38.30 16.14 8.87 18 Nov 2025 1013.91 1006.65 27.87 15.23 8.46 17 Nov 2025 1013.24 1007.30 19.47 14.55 8.06 16 Nov 2025 1013.02 1008.85 8.20 14.05 7.64 15 Nov 2025 1011.89 1008.00 6.42 13.81 7.50 14 Nov 2025 1011.80 1008.10 5.21 13.71 7.48 13 Nov 2025 1011.52 1009.15 -3.25 13.44 7.37 12 Nov 2025 1012.06 1010.30 -7.13 13.43 7.36 11 Nov 2025 1012.19 1009.60 -1.85 13.91 7.44 10 Nov 2025 1012.05 1008.55 3.94 14.24 7.51 9 Nov 2025 1013.18 1009.05 7.95 14.46 7.52 8 Nov 2025 1015.00 1009.15 18.89 14.82 7.31 7 Nov 2025 1015.88 1008.40 29.26 14.92 6.94 6 Nov 2025 1015.28 1008.05 27.67 14.37 6.61

Still look like its getting into Africa before Christmas

Probably and seemingly our best chance of severe should,maybe occur during the first part of Met winter.EPS and GEFS both show a Mid level Ridge building into Florida into the GOM, with a trough coming out of Eastt Asia the next couple days,this wouldnt have no problem tapping into the GOM

If you ask me this pattern we are fixing to get looks more severe in early Dec,You got heights rising before t-giving into the Sea of Okhotsk,with a trough in East Asia and rising heights into Mongolia

East Asia gives you some insight of the pattern ahead,yes its never gonna be right because we have different teleconnections,sorta speaking.But honesltly 1,E,you see a ridge building into Mongolia into maybe even Russia,nothing but a trough in a few days as we head towards T-GIVING

In case you dont have this you can look at Planetary and Equatorial Waves using the Euro Modes,ill shut up now

GEFS looks more Euro now with any SSW,you can see it here

Id agree with what Jeff said up above .We seem to be seeing the the SSW underway with the sharp rise in temps into the stratosphere but even so ,the cold seems to be getting pushed back seemingly each day.The JMA right now shows a strong MJO signal in the WP into the first of Dec,while this isnt bad it still should have reflection to more or less a SER,just transient cold shots.Might not be a bad thing if you want a cold Christmas or even possibly beyond that for a couple weeks anyways

Cool,he finally got this running again

LOL Looks like the quite a few members jumped the train today...lol

Thinking the same thing @ Carver.Like Jeff metioned a week or two ago,its gonna take a couple CF's to beat down the SER,before it can get really cold,otherwise its just gonna be transient cool down i agree also the Euro suites struggle with systems out west,more than likely today with that trough out west.GEFS dont show much change today,not perfect but not as extreme as the EPS

See what it shows this afternoon,shouild update in about a hr and a half

EPS seems to be having a rough time to have such volatile swings