jaxjagman

This is true.Just to clarify myself.I'm not saying this is gloom and doom,i should have worded my words better. But its really been a unusual pattern so far.You see this standing wave along the MC,WP since fall and the interaction with Rossby and Kelvin waves the past few weeks is killing the MJO signal and more than likely will continue. When you have a +TNH which is what social media is the talk about,this causes the trough axis to shift west,then you see the subtropical ridge over Florida.But,this looks more transient on todays ensembles on the long range. I honestly wouldnt trust any of the LR models right now.

I plead the 5th

The GAAM albeit was still in the COD,it was still positive

I mean, when i see the MJO and the GAAM in spring coupled with each other id be getting excited with severe weather if the MJO was into phase one or two,its just not coupled right now,but this winter we have gotten our cold when the AAM is positive not negative,what you are seeing now

I just dont think BAM is right. This winter we see the tropical forcing is more or less has been into the WP/MC,its kinda opposite of what he says. You can actually look when East Tn got its early season snow was when the GAAM was positive and not negative.The GAAM should still sync up with the MJO to couple with it.

But BAM is missing with the tropical forcing,sorry but hes wrong

Edited that about to fall not autumn

Yeah but the tropical forcing since fall has been more or less into the MC/WP with Rossby and Kelvin waves none the less a standing wave just as well.Its one reason why you see East Asia keep troughs in East Asia continous

Better get something fast,it looks rather bleak right now down the road with that strong ERW thats fixing to pass along the IDL the next few days,Maybe it will weaken some but this could cause the tropical forcing to shit towards the WP into the MC,probably end up seeing RMM madness continue,you're seemingly starting to see the NINA background getting taken out now even tho it's still NINA.

To an extent this is true,but besides a NAO the first step is a good PNA in our parts , really some deception to East Tn to the West.TN,mountains im sure causes part of this,while the east wants to see a more stronger -NAO,it dont work like that from the close to the Cumberland to West it just leads with us with cold dry with cutters,compared to the east,we really live in a weird climo in Tn in winter,its really unusual to see the state wide snowfall at the sane time

I dunno,its just what i see now but planetary waves can disrupt the pattern,its nothing like equatorial waves

Yes,they didnt put there link at the bottom for nothing more than click bait,But in general you can look at East Asia to show you what the pattern might look like in several days,you see a trough going through Mongolia/Russia,with ridging building up into the Koreas with a ULL passing by NE Japan,it should look like this a ridge in the middle of the counrty,a crappie PNA and a ULL IN the NE,still the same the cold in winter relies on other teleconnections

Its happened before with the AR out west during a NINA,buts its still more common with a NINO not NINA,it happened before in the winter of 2022-23

I know,i posted this in our severe thread earlier,its kinda like 2023

Right,the MJO right now you should look at whats driving the pattern,even the ensembles havent been very good in the long range this winter,its been a weird winter sorta speaking