jaxjagman

Seriously the MJO is going into the WP like it or nor

seems like the NJO is getting destructive interference

Probably gonna be stuck into the WP like the GEFS shows until that Rossby Wave moves soon,which wont seemingly should happen soon

That was a awesome day going to SWAD with my daughter today.Shes all into to severe now.Shes doing her major in computer science at Lipscomb right now but wants to in the Met field now.

We always get screwed when blocking gets stronger along the Aleutian into the Bearing Sea.Severe with the Jet goes up into the OV. Models did a fairly good job the moisture influx sorta speaking,we didnt have nothing much of any kicker but instability seemingly was still there than more advertised.Guess we say NEXT

The next few days there is a Rossby Wave thats going pass west of the IDL,some of these RMMS especially the JMA albeit its still in the COD are or seemingly getting destructive interfernce from this

I typically use the Koreas and the Yellow Sea in our parts.You wanna see deeper troughs into this part for us While also using East Asia doesnt never correlate 1:1,you have other teleconnections to look at in North America,but it still should give you a rough idea. While you see a trough here into Japan,this is more than likely be a trough in the East.I wouldnt be surprised to see this slow down in future runs.The GAAM looks fairly negative right now,this should be a slower pattern just because the earths rotation slows down sorta speaking,its opposite with a positive GAAM

Its still a messed up look.The CFS is showing the tropical forcing into the WP into IO which is from Rossby and Kelvin Waves,so its more than likely gonna cause destructive interference with the MJO signal,which will more than likely go into the COD

I agree with the NAO and i DO agree with the wave lenghts,but when you see a Rex Block into where i mentioned above this typically is a +PNA,it would take strong -NAO to counter that.It's one reason why last spring our severe season went to crap after a early start,this can cause the Jet Max to shit further north into spring,its one of the reasons with our severe shifted into the OV

Looks severe towards the end of the month.Looks more like a East Asia winter monsoonal trough,Upper Level LOW into Russia/Mongolia and THE PIG like Flash calls it(Rex Block)in the Aleutians/Bearing Sea Euro and GFS both show this right now,surprisingly right now

Oh yeah,enjoy every moment of it.Kids love it !! I have to call my lawn people out,i havent even picked up my yard yet. Like @Mathew was saying earlier we dont need to have any severe right now here,the trees are still stressed and damaged,we had some gust of just winds last Sat morning and knocked our power out for about 6 hrs

Headed to Jacksonville in the morning to visit,not sure ill make it there in time for severe.Wife has to do something in the morning before we can leave Next week if we can get moisture we could possibly get some strong storms towards the end of the work week,much depends on where the subtropical ridge is at

Dads on a sled never works out very well...lol

Lake Erie is 96% frozen over today,that hasnt happened the last 2 decades

This really has been a strange winter https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/news/2026/02/06/lake-erie-almost-completely-ice-covered-for-first-time-in-2-decades