jaxjagman

In general when you see all that mess into WP,you'd think its gonna warm up in our parts with the MJO signal relative strong and you also see where the MJO RMM'S do funky stuff into P6,past the mid month.MJO is still moving even tho the RMM'S says it isnt,my thinking is after that mess clears,the RMMS will correct itself and show a fast moving signal until they catch up,just destructive interference from Rossby and Kelvin

It dont look as brutal as it has been this time.The ensembles all of them seem to struggle to even get into the 40's,so maybe it wont be that bad.

Can you imagine that with this,of course its fantasy right now

Just for fantasy purposes,its still fun to look at if you are a cold lover,i'm not that person but you can also see a big artic high nosing down towards the Upper Plains the end of the run on the GFS,if you look at the other charts

Probably the best look we've seen all season other than what you guys got in the east got earlier.hopefully something transpires for someone

Hopefully the Euro is wrong,its still showing the MJO in the WP and with some strong blocking into Siberia but its shows a Asian winter time monsoonal flow,rhis would be a waste with the blocking into Siberia it shows in our parts

I'll take a shot of the GFS

You can teleconnect with what the GEFS shows into East Asia,while you have some possible winter in the long range,this should just be transient cold and a warm up afterwards.But this is also with the MJO related sorta speaking So this is gonna crash the good PNA as heights lower into Russia/Mongolia

You're definite seeing a pattern change since we've seen this since fall in the upcoming days

But anyways what it seems to me is the MJO is headed towards the WH.AFRICA and possibly strenghten,patterns like this in a declining Nina even tho its still Nina probably means possibly into Feb you guys in the east could get a good storm depending on other teleconnections,especially into our subforum

Its definite a cold look as we get into next weekend just looking at whats going through East Asia the next few days, for a few days,maybe we can score during this time

Seemingly we are starting to see a pattern change upcoming,the tropical forcing is getting taken out of the WP/MC which is what we've been seeing literally since fall I'm using the GEFS and CFS I.E,take out the tropcial forcing you dont see these troughs going trough East Asia,

Sorry to hear this about your mom also,prayers for you and your fam

I wouldnt trust any model this far out,seen it to many times in our parts when systems get buried here towards the GOM,theres alot that can go wrong.I.E for us in Mid Tn convection down south can cut off the QPFS,there us also other factors as well,positive tilted troughs can possibly kick the moisture out much faster,could go on and on but CMC looks to be the big outlier right now

I mean each day you see the subsurface warming east of the IDL and slowly moving upwards towards the surface,its still NINA,buit you are seeing its demise every day mow