jaxjagman

Lake Erie is 96% frozen over today,that hasnt happened the last 2 decades

This really has been a strange winter https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/news/2026/02/06/lake-erie-almost-completely-ice-covered-for-first-time-in-2-decades

You guys have a awesome winter,its really odd from Johnnson City to Memphis to be so cold and the rest of basically seeing a average winter.Even more odd to see Jacksonville to Orlando https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi

Wish we could see this into March,us severe nerds would be getting excited..lol

Euro has a great track for us this afternoon for V-Day,just no cold to work with and the CF dont even look very impressive with cold behind it,,looks like another swing and a miss for us here this winter,still 7 days out so it could very well change.

BAM does the same shit,its all click bait,give me your money

This looks warm in the East upcoming For what ever reason,the CFS shows this tropical forcing with Rossby/Kelvin Waves into the WP/MC,but its been over amplifying this since fall,but its still a warm look, Seems like to me this is fixing to become a active severe threat up past as we get further alonginto,FEB,with the MJO,GAAM,they both seem to be coupled rather well right now

I agree,i'm glad CPC switched from the ONI to the RONI.This changes somewhat how you look at analogs. I.E in 2024 and 2005 the ONI showed into OND a more neutral ENSO,while the RONI both years mentioned showed it was actually a moderate NINA https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Getting into Climo each day,right now it looks possibly like a active period coming up past the mid month.

Has a close partner

If somehow the GAAM can stay coupled with the MJO,it could get interesting even in Feb,tho you'd like to still see this in March

Be very cautious what the models show show into the extended pattern

Yes,its been like that for whatever reasons North of 1-40 seemingly the last couple decades,its the battle ground and we 90% of the time,lose

Been a crappie winter win here thus far for us,unless you get into ice storms. Per Nashville in Jan.1.4" SN,that was before the ice storm and then a dusting after the ZR finally ended,that was the extent to our snow this winter other than token flakes at times which didnt add up to anything Temps were 2.4 BN.Last Jan we was 6.3 BN