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tstate21

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Everything posted by tstate21

  1. tstate21
    Even if Milton simply maintains intensity, I would expect this to be the case given we are approaching diurnal max. Now if he strengthens further tonight... get ready for some even more impressive colors to show themselves soon.
  2. tstate21
    There was a definitive hook as that complex crossed into Maryland. I would not be surprised if we see a report of a brief touchdown in Southern PA tomorrow morning. Seems to have developed into a more of a squall line at this juncture.
  3. tstate21
    Debris being lofted over 1500 feet in the MoCo cell apparently.
  4. tstate21
    Appears to be. Warning reflects radar confirmed as well. A bit of a couplet near Perry Hall now as well.
  5. tstate21
    Many of these warnings seem to be precautionary with broad areas of rotation, with the exception being the Leesburg cell for a time.
  6. tstate21
    Wow. Leesburg TW now radar confirmed.
  7. tstate21
    I'm counting this as a "winter weather advisory watch".
  8. tstate21
    First signs of snow mixing in here in Owings Mills.
  9. tstate21
    I know its only the 18z NAM (and at range), but at 78 hours it is substantially further south from it's 12z run. Seems that there is quite a bit more confluence from the northern stream. Maybe a nice start going into happy hour?
  10. tstate21
    And there's the TW but radar isn't looking as impressive the last few scans.
  11. tstate21
    Certainly some broad rotation just E of White Marsh but nothing of immediate concern at the moment. If there is going to be a brief spin-up soon, it would likely be in that area.
  12. tstate21
    Tornado possible tag in the STW for the cell near Beltsville.
  13. tstate21
    14-21 named storms is such a large range IMO. Since 2010, 77% (10/13) years had between 14-21 named storms. Easy to be "correct" when you have such a large target. It tells me that they are unsure of what is actually going to happen.
  14. tstate21
    On a related note, what radar apps/websites are you all using? I used to use marylandwx but their radar site has been down for months now.
  15. tstate21
    Either everyone has given up or everyone is asleep to miss the bomb at 204h on the 00z Euro...
  16. tstate21
    Just a beautiful setup on the 00z Euro with a slow moving juicy low running into a stout 1040mb+ high up top and then redeveloping off the coast. Surely shows the potential of the pattern coming up. Can the Euro finally be picking up on the start of something here or is it another mirage?
  17. tstate21
    If we were to have a shot, we need that ridge on the west coast to trend stronger. Last couple runs have done that, but we need about 3 to 4 more runs of that.
  18. tstate21
    Ridge on the west coast on the GEFS has been trending west the past few runs which, which has allowed a bit separation between the two waves, but has also allowed our diving wave to be more west also. Ideally, we would like to see it trend back stronger and a bit more east.
  19. tstate21
    Very intrigued to see the trends on the 00z GEFS tonight. You can tell early on in the game whether the run is going to be a good one or not based on that PV split. I wouldn't be concerned with surface depictions at this juncture until that is resolved.
  20. tstate21
    And for those counting, the 00z CMC sticks to the cutter idea this round. More consolidated energy dropping down into the CONUS.
  21. tstate21
    Great trend on the 00z GFS. Once the PV splits, we need that first piece of energy to be as robust as possible to force the diving of the energy on the backend S and E.
  22. tstate21
    The GFS has been adamant about splitting the PV into two parts and now the 00z puts the majority of the energy into the front piece. Need to wait for the 2nd piece to drop down here. May not be a bad thing if the front end can establish a more robust 50-50 low.
  23. tstate21
    0z CMC drops the energy into the CONUS over WA state, which suppresses the WC ridge and leads to a cutter. Need that energy to come in further east like the 00z GFS has it entering near MT/ND. The 12z CMC, which showed our great solution, showed this energy dropping down into ND as well.
  24. tstate21
    Agreed. You could see improvement with the ridge setting up over Greenland in a much better spot around the 138h mark. That WC ridge is a thing of beauty too.
  25. tstate21
    Rather than focusing on each model run's exact depiction of the storm, at this point, it's best to look at the trends of each model over the past 48 hours, and just about every run for each of the major models has trended south. Not sure we are done trending south either due to the strength of the block and the spacing between the two storms. We shall see.
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