dendrite

19.8" here for Novie. 2.6" in Dec so far.

Still need to bring it to wipe yourself with the FV3.

Controlling posters is a new one to me. Please do share in the banter thread.

lol wut? Drunk? I've come to your defense countless times over the past decade from mods out of our region that were just doing their jobs. Yeah, I've grown a little more liberal here because I think the internet overall has trended that way. It's about mixing fun with the science and not necessarily reeling off 10,000 word boring diatribes. I think I've posted my fair share of weather, but there's only so much to talk about right now. 2 more cutters in the extended...yay whoopee! Will I have 47F and rain or 38F and rain? At least I try to call it like I see it. I'm not ACATT in the winter and AWATT in the summer like someone here I know. That gets predictably boring.

There's too many models. Weenies can always find one they like which serves their agenda. Like when all hope is lost and James latches onto a few weenie members of the SREFs as showing a trend.

Your posts were better 11 years ago too.

It's not really a temp bias issue imo. The FV3 is ejecting a piece of energy out of the SW US trough way faster than the other models. By coming out earlier it has a lot more room to amplify. By the time the op kicks the s/w toward us there are northern and southern s/w's on its tail and more confluence out ahead of it.

Snow for NYC. A wee bit different from the gfs op.

We whitish Christmas here too.

Merry Christmas everyone. Stay safe today and may you all open a gift with a d10 blizzard inside.

Maybe Chris could give more on it and the possibility. The cleaner your air generally the colder you have to get to produce all ice crystals, but different cloud condensation nuclei perform in different ways.

Maybe just cold enough for a little diamond dust. -13C seems a little warm for that, but I guess it’s possible with the right nuclei...especially if there are a lot of smoke related particulates trapped below the inversion on a rad cooling night.

Merry Christmas eve weenies!

And it is exceptionally rare to have a fall seem as short as this one did.

Expectations (aka climo) /= Wants

Wants to push deep summer into Oct, but expects deep winter by late Novie.

If that "unofficial" though? i.e. one of the months that they are missing data?

Enjoy the -40s

I still believe in the torque fairy.

I don't totally agree. We could get a gradient storm that maxes out over interior SNE. I mean, we're going into freakin January. Above normal is still cold enough for snow.

Your elevation probably hurt you a bit. Some of the lower els around you (Woodstock RWIS) never mixed out until the cold frontal passage.

With the migraine gone, I can see your thinly veiled defense mechanisms this morning. There's a slight sense of nervousness in your posts. If it ends up cold/snowy, well you held course and knew it all along. But the longer this relaxation goes, the more the melt will come out. Anyway, the LR doesn't look too bad to me for our region. Nothing great, nothing piss poor. If everything goes right, we end up wintry. If everything goes wrong, we end up with mostly rain. Chances are we'll have some hits and misses. It just doesn't look like much of a pack building stretch over the next couple weeks. So in the end, I guess I agree with you even though what I said sounds vague and seems to cover all of the bases.

I mean his avatar pretty much says it all.

Gotta be handy with the gauge if you know what I mean