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dendrite

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Everything posted by dendrite

  1. dendrite
    Kp "down" to 7 at 21z.
  2. dendrite
    The euro has busted before and will bust again. Boxing Day '10 is another example except that one went in everyone's favor. It's not infallible. The biggest problem is that it was so consistently wrong. Had it flopped around a couple of runs it would've been easier to discount it. I went to bed not expecting much after the big cave east last night...even though it still creamed me. Consensus usually wins.
  3. dendrite
    Morals of the story...never look at the NAM, fear multiple RGEM trends, if Euro is way out on its own limb toss it.
  4. dendrite
    Question is....do you buy it? If the RGEM goes anymore SE the BM will get the deformation.
  5. dendrite
    It sucks, but we all get screwjobbed once in awhile. They had no pity on us in feb 2010.
  6. dendrite
    Nice hit for E NH, E MA, and ME though.
  7. dendrite
    Euro caves quite a bit.
  8. dendrite
    I'm only posting what the GFS is showing. I'm not saying I buy it or the RGEM. I can't imagine the Euro busting that badly in 1 run at T minus 0. I'm enjoying the model mayhem...it keeps met jobs.
  9. dendrite
    Easy to say when you're in one of the perfect spots for this. Many on here were under 24-36" and are in danger of getting the rug pulled out under them. lol
  10. dendrite
    Hey kids...so you wanna be a meteorologist? Still a good hit for ENE, but my condolences to WNE.
  11. dendrite
    I think the euro is going to cave harder than we think tonight.
  12. dendrite
    GFS going pretty far east from 18z.
  13. dendrite
    Does Kev get his RGEM wish? lol Ray FTW
  14. dendrite
    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html
  15. dendrite
    TTN went from >2.00" QPF to 0.25" on the 4km NAM. Ouch.
  16. dendrite
    Well aware. NYC was in that meso band for awhile. I'm talking more south of the city into E NJ.
  17. dendrite
    Horrible run-to-run consistency. Every run crushes CT/S NH/MA/RI, but those on the edge are getting flip flopped between 2ft and 6-10".
  18. dendrite
    lol...the model is so horrible. Nice hit here, but does it even matter?
  19. dendrite
    Well when I do it I pretty much just look at the early hours. Anything past 6hr...meh.
  20. dendrite
    epicObs thread though James.
  21. dendrite
    22z HRRR comes west a bit. Analyzing these hourly models blows.
  22. dendrite
    euro had about 0.15" QPF in the 18-00z period in the NYC area. Precip totals since 18z so far...LGA 0.20" EWR 0.12" JFK 0.11" Of course some of that is a meso weenie band.
  23. dendrite
    The meltdowns would be epic. I wouldn't cheer that on, but I would find a way to take sick pleasure out of that.
  24. dendrite
    22z RAP not looking as favorable for NYC as 21z did.
  25. dendrite
    How much since 1pm when the GFS initialized?
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