Mid level temps are a bit of a problem until heights start to crash. We both may be just a bit too warm aloft until the tail end. Hopefully everything ticks south.
Of course I thought I was safe this week so I decided to buy a part for my old snow blower this morning that won't arrive until 1/17. Voila the models instantly turn much snowier.
May be a bit of a hybrid, but squalls are convective in nature. Maybe the hydrometer is almost totally melting in a warmer layer before being thrown back into a subfreezing portion of the cloud.