That first one is actually way south with the southern s/w...there's a weak northern stream s/w that rotates down around the PV aligned, but unphased with the southern one. It looks more like some kind of inverted trough deal on the GFS. I think for that to become a big show we'd need to see the models underestimating that northern s/w and it can dig enough to create some sort of partial phase. Seems like a longshot to me though.