dendrite

The AWPAGs precip gauges are really good now. With wind screens the % loss due to turbulence is significantly reduced. It looks like DDH has not received one yet so they still have a heated tipping bucket which will be prone to evaporation in S and tip spill issues in +RA. PSF has a heated tipping bucket as well.

Sucks for a lot of people, but I am loving it. 5 years ago I would be cheering -30F on, but I have other interests now that keep me cheering the cold away. (birds and bamboo)

No different than rain

It’s actually relatively cold under that cutoff ridge at the sfc in the prairie provinces and the upper plains...heavy heavy inversion and fake cold though.

That is a really weird H5 look for the season across the interior of NAMER.

10-20”...lol. I did that in 3 hours.

Usually when my chickens are enjoying winter the weenies on the forum are losing it....a definite negative correlation.

3k with about 0.20" before the flip. RGEM about 0.30". 12z EC was a bit over 0.40". So we'll call it 2-4" of snow here and then some crap on top. Just enough to be a PITA and not melt until March.

No. These are good events for you and me. The SW flow is in the upper levels. The low levels have a NE ageostrophic drain with the CAD. This run just has better forcing in S NH versus N NH so I end up with a good quick thump before the changeover. Sometimes it just happens.

We blow.

Think I’ll take the under.

RGEM has been ticking warmer. Gotta watch that dryslot like Chris mentioned because midlevel temps are pretty meh for nucleation. Once that dryslot punches in between H5-H7 it could be ZR even if the entire column is sub freezing.

Looks like 3k would be about 1-2" of S/IP here and then a period of ZR. Then maybe another inch of snow on top of that. Fun.

Picking up better on the warm tongue aloft now...and yeah, need to get that midlevel flow backed in time to keep the cold air aloft in place. Otherwise we S>IP>ZR and then back to a little snow to finish.

Idk if you drink coffee...obvi avoid caffeine in PM hours. Maybe supplement some magnesium? It’s easy to be deficient in it and it’s vital to our body.

I use Ginxsnewx.com

RGEM is pretty weenieish for NNE too. Pretty cold aloft for more frozen than freezing.

Wow. Nice run right into SNE with the front end. Nice secondary development too for NNE.

GFS/ICON has a quick thump into VT/NH. But yeah, this isn't one of our high ends SWFEs.

ptype maps are showing a mix on the various sites for BML 84-87hr, but this is the raw sounding text for there at 87hr. Date: 87 hour GFS valid 15Z SAT 2 JAN 21 Station: KBML Latitude: 44.58 Longitude: -71.18 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 68 1 950 478 SFC 946 509 -2.3 -2.9 96 0.6 -2.6 135 5 275.2 275.7 273.5 284.1 3.26 3 900 907 -1.9 -2.4 97 0.5 -2.1 164 18 279.6 280.2 276.4 289.5 3.56 4 850 1364 -0.0 -0.2 99 0.1 -0.1 192 39 286.1 286.9 280.8 298.7 4.44 5 800 1850 -0.3 -0.4 99 0.1 -0.3 211 47 290.8 291.6 283.1 304.2 4.64 6 750 2366 -1.5 -1.7 99 0.2 -1.6 227 52 294.9 295.7 284.6 308.2 4.50 7 700 2913 -3.9 -4.2 98 0.3 -4.0 235 55 298.2 298.9 285.4 310.2 4.00 8 650 3495 -6.9 -7.3 97 0.4 -7.1 240 54 301.1 301.8 285.9 311.5 3.40 9 600 4116 -10.2 -10.6 97 0.4 -10.4 242 54 304.3 304.8 286.4 313.1 2.83 10 550 4781 -14.1 -14.4 98 0.2 -14.2 241 55 307.3 307.7 286.9 314.6 2.28 11 500 5497 -19.0 -19.1 100 0.1 -19.0 239 57 309.9 310.2 287.2 315.4 1.69 Definite warm layer aloft and close to ZR, but it still looks like snow to me at that point.

I'd be surprised if Wed is bigger. Maybe you get a little upslope after the fropa wednesday, but it'll probably be a mix/rain down here until we get the CAA.

Didn't look too bad up there. 3-5" or so and then a little mix/DZ before ending. Pretty typical of these things.