dendrite

Not perfect considering the warm layer around H75, but this definitely doesn't suck either. We'd probably get some very good growth in the cloud tops and then some riming in the meh layer. There's good growth in the lower omega too. I like the progs in Mass too. There's a brief period where many have sleet after falling through a +2C layer and then into -14C one.

Lots of terrible articles out there already. https://www.sootoday.com/local-news/weekend-outlook-the-polar-vortex-is-upon-us-1201524 No PV in Ontario since 2015? In honor of naming things, I’m going to name this PV “Polar Vortex James.”

I wasn’t kidding when I said Nov 1950.

Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years.

Congrats dendrite that run.

This was the peak of it in the northeast.

Maybe he saw and got lost in the kuchie?

Ice encased flying tree debris in CT.

Euro tries to go Nov 50 on us with that d10 system.

Yeah...925 is pretty anomalous. There will be fresh pack upstream as well so little modification of the cold and any sun on Monday will be working against a high albedo. I'd probably lean with the midnight high there and the daytime peaking around 8-10F. BDL only has a little over a handful of days with highs under 5F on record though. Looks like 8F is the record from 1985.

I'll take the over on the Euro 2m temps. MEX is 14F at BDL. Maybe shave a few off of that for the anomalous low level cold?

Coastal front subby zone from here to interior SW ME?

Does this app come with sauce?

We seem to pull 1040 at least once or twice every winter. I think I've had 1046 or so over the last 20 yrs, but never 1050. That's usually a rare MT/ND/MN deal as the highs slide down east of the Canadian rockies from Mayo.

Looks like the GFS gets the sfc warm front up to the Pike. That's where the thermal gradient exists right behind the streamline convergence. North of there there's a large zone that gets up to MHT that is in the low 30s. My guess is this is the model thinking there's ZR and it's trying to latent heat the area to freezing. Then you get another sharp temperature gradient where you go from ZR to IP. Since there's no sfc latent heating with IP you get back into the deep cold. The GFS overdoes thermals and is definitely underestimating CAD so you can almost surely push that IP line further south and the actual warm sector from the Pike to near the south coast. And the further south that IP and SN make it the colder the air you can advect into the ZR zone to offset latent heating. tl;dr version...toss the GFS sfc params

Again...toss the surface crap aside... But when talking about a battle wrt midlevels and synoptics, do you want the euro on your side or the NCEP duo? It's hard to toss the euro when it is steadfast for more than one run...especially with how the GFS is performing lately.

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/massachusetts/temperature-850hpa/20190120-1200z.html

Ooo. Good point. It's like Ray wrote the script.

Days and weeks of snow?

I hate to put much faith in the mesos with so much synoptic time still left to go. The system is still out in the Rockies. Anyway, Nammy puts the fronto band right over my fanny so I hope it's right. More bang for my QPF buck.

Looks like winterwolf is taking a bite out of New England.

How do the SREFs look? Any trends?

Yeah I'm referring to mid-levels. I expect the sfc to overperform cold as usual.

It's interesting that the GFS/NAM are being hugged and he RGEM/EC have been tossed. Not saying I agree or disagree, but it is definitely interesting. My gut is we end up somewhere in the middle of the EC and NCEP.