dendrite

Ladies and gentlemen of the weenie class of 2018-19 I have one piece of advice for you No matter what Ray tells you There’s no snow in southern New England None Oh there’s cold in southern New England, but you don’t want cold You want snow And there’s no snow in southern New England

lol don’t you cryyyyy tonight it is snowin’ above you, babyyyyy

So you think winter’s over? that the cold, has finally reached, the end every model run, night or day the pattern’s torching on you, and all of your friends...yeah it’s gonna take a little time Time is sure to re-sort, the troughs Oh don’t you even worry weenie darlin’ the step down will begin again oh yeah snow is, all around you Cold is knockin’, outside your door Waiting for you, is heavy snow falling at 2F Keep your weenie up and you will find some snow again, i know

Melt, melt, let it all out?

I agree 100% with the last half of this paragraph. I think there's still a lot to learn...the ingredients and how to cook them together. As for the first half, we're just not at the point where we can pick out specifics like the tendency for wave spacing with a 1-5 month lead. Heck, even at 5d with the euro we tell people not to stress about the details yet. So it's a catch-22. You can't really "see" all of the synoptic nuances, chaos, "luck", whatever you want to call it, from 4 months out, but you kind of need to in order make seasonal snowfall predictions.

Or there is more we have to learn. There's not a lot of skill with these long range seasonal forecasts once you get beyond super ninos. I think Nick just put it well in the other thread, there's a percentage of your winter you can attribute to the longwave pattern and then another you can attribute to synoptic nuances that we can't see from a long lead at this point in time. My argument in all of this is that the 80s pattern has been a little too persistent for me to call it "luck". I understand Will's point too and it's probably all just semantics. I'm not sure if Will and I even disagree. May just be a glass half full or half empty kind of thing. But I disagree with you. The pattern sucks at our latitude. You're trying to put lipstick on a pig. No one has the science down pat.

Hrmm...may have to reassess my thoughts now. ^^^^^^^^

So I consider that more of a pattern flaw than an unlucky nuance. Maybe it doesn't show up on composite H5 anomalies, but there's a reason for the bolded.

I just don't totally buy the luck concept for the 80s pattern...i.e. cutter, arctic, cutter, arctic, rinse-repeat. Yeah, temps are near normal and we've been very wet, but it's because the cutters deluge us and then a Molly Ringwald airmass settles in. It's not like we're getting 2" of QPF from events that we're thisclose to getting 20" of snow from. It's 2-3" of liquid thanks to dews in the 50s.

-5° but 1500ft is 5°. So 10 of those degrees are fake. -10° at CON so they have 15 fake degrees.

No thanks. Not a fan of every sunny summer morning turning into BKN skies by 9am.

A calm -10F isn't that big of a deal. You dress for it and you're fine. It's not trying to force its way through the cracks of your house either. Crank that wind up to 20-30mph and even 10F above becomes tough to tolerate. idk...I mean I enjoy radiational cooling and the big cold numbers, but there is definitely a different feel between the two.

My chickens were outside tolerating 5F with light winds before bed last night. 20F with a 15mph wind they want no part of. Birds don't lie.

ORH 0F + BDL -7F = Fake

-4.5°. Not bad

IJD 13 BDL 12 8F looks fine compared to them. That was a record low max at BDL.

Calling it official 01/01 42.0 23.1 0.47 33 T 2 01/02 27.4 16.2 0.00 13 0.0 1 01/03 34.0 21.6 0.10 14 1.8 3 01/04 40.4 27.9 0.00 13 0.0 2 01/05 35.9 25.9 0.04 17 T 2 01/06 39.2 16.8 T 32 T 2 01/07 20.5 9.7 0.00 28 0.0 2 01/08 30.7 18.0 0.31 9 1.0 3 01/09 33.4 29.0 0.52 21 3.3 6 01/10 29.8 15.9 T 27 T 6 01/11 17.2 4.2 0.00 25 0.0 5 01/12 15.8 2.8 0.00 19 0.0 5 01/13 20.5 1.3 0.00 8 0.0 5 01/14 26.6 1.1 0.00 7 0.0 5 01/15 28.8 13.2 0.00 18 0.0 5 01/16 35.0 14.8 T 23 T 5 01/17 18.2 2.0 0.00 13 0.0 5 01/18 27.7 13.3 T 10 0.2 5 01/19 25.5 13.1 0.18 14 3.3 8 01/20 19.4 -1.7 0.93 29 5.7 13 01/21 1.4 -4.8 0.01 27 0.1 13 01/22 17.9 -4.7 0.00 28 0.0 12 01/23 33.5 10.5 0.05 7 0.0 12 01/24 52.0 32.1 1.58 20 0.0 11 01/25 33.7 17.9 T 19 T 7 01/26 24.7 12.2 0.00 10 0.0 7 01/27 36.3 5.6 T 15 T 7 01/28 28.6 5.7 0.00 17 0.0 7 01/29 15.8 4.4 0.31 11 4.0 11 01/30 24.7 0.3 0.17 27 1.9 13 01/31 11.7 -8.9 0.00 17 0.0 12 4.67 21.3

Yeah...those who decouple hard may do decent. Those that maintain a light pesky wind, naso much. Fakersville will probably roll out a -30F tomorrow.

It may not drop much more than that either. This airmass is beyond maxed out.

I hit 12F. Backwards airmass since the core of the cold came in from the SW and gradually moderated. Plus ORH is often colder than CON due to the elevation differences.

Maybe. I'm bouncing around, but my return flow has started. Briefly hit 2F, but it's starting to level off.

when a bad prog comes along, you must rip it cold air is taking way too long, you must rip it forecast is going wrong, you must rip it now rip it tan the nape kick a pup warm fate torch forward mow ahead try to accept it it's not too late to rip it rip it good

Can someone covert this from Tippish to English?

The pattern is getting to people