dendrite

12, 10, 98...we won’t be picky

I think Jerry hit it on the head with sample size. There’s so many synoptic and global scale forcing mechanisms that work on the pattern that our relatively small sample size of datasets doesn’t necessarily give you a representative range of possible outcomes when factoring in some luck. Obviously you know all this and bust or not, you’ll be back next year fine. You have to have a “we’re onto Cincinnati” attitude.

I think the moral of the story is everyone still has a lot to learn wrt seasonal forecasting. Just when we think we have something figured out we get thrown a curveball...*cough judah*... If this ends up a lousy winter after a confident call of epicness, there’s nothing else to call it other than a major bust...whether you think the methodology is right or not. With that said, everyone learns from the busts and keeps pushing the science and the forecasts foreward. You can’t get discouraged either because we all bust. Some are good at spinning them with excuses, but for sure we’ve all had some big fails. With all of that said, it’s still January so let’s not mail it in like the 2012 Sox quite yet.

3/8/05

Closest thing we’ve come to verifying blizzard criteria inland up here in my memory.

I’ll admit that my first instinct when seeing the progs was Mar 05...that’s if something good was to come out of it.

Holding on tight to Will’s hand for security so you can have the reassurance that NNE will someday outsnow SNE once again.

Not hating. Polar vortex joins the fun just seemed like it came out of a Harwich basement.

Honestly, before I read the author I thought this was a James thread.

1.20" QPF of snow here.

That’s yore cold right there. Wish we could get that. I’d bring the birds inside and weenie out to -30F. Thy oxen frozen mid dump.

ORD with a "cheap" midnight high next Wednesday of -17F. 18z temp of -23F. Their all-time record low max is -11F.

You're an Epstein fan, right?

Too bad we didn't get that in Oct/Nov when we could've been less inverted. Yesterday's LLJ was beyond beast mode.

Should have never uninstalled. We've had dews in every month.

1.63" final

Balloon over GYX by the time it reaches 700mb?

The Blue Hill Davis had a 54mph G 87mph earlier.

Foot of water up against my house. No where for it to go with the ground frozen.

Front is through. Make it stop. 41.8° Storm drains overflowing here and in CON. Run flooded. Basement flooded. Meh

Yup. I'm enjoying watching the before and after of my pack melt today. Hopefully I'll be able to see my driveway again.

Dews are the biggest pack killer. A dry 60F gives you wetbulbing on the surface via evaporation and sublimation. Pump some 50-55F dews over it and it's pack cryin' for its mama.