I mean maybe the NAM is a little too aggressive, but it’s a lot closer than the HRRR to my eyes. 11z still has MHT as all snow at 14z while the 3k nammy has the mix line up to me. So we’ll see where we stand at 10am.
But CC really doesn’t lie in these situations. The cold and occasional stronger lift is helping to fight the mix line off at times but it’s coming eventually. Boyd Hall up at 1P1 will probably stay mostly snow though.
There may be some grains mixing in but it isn’t all snow. Mostly sleet. There’s been some UP obs in 5 min obs too. The ASOS won’t report PL unless the observer feels like augmenting it today.
Haven’t been out to measure, but it looks like a few inches out there. 25.9° with about 1/2sm mod snow…occasionally heavy. Growth isn’t that great, but there’s a dense amount of flakes. Fairly SWFE like.
I’d plan for about 10” with a period of IP in there. Mid levels start warming and we know how that goes with ratios. The nose is around H85 instead of the usual H75-H8 SWFE, but the best lift is still a bit below the DGZ.