dendrite

Modoki la nina

Haddad just has a bigger range. I've been saying 6-10" for days, but if I had a gun to the head to pick a 2" range I'd go with the GYX 6-8".

We need a James 2015 Gulf Stream miracle I think...idk, it'll need a lot of work.

Who doesn’t love a cold front and mixed showers?

Has to be more of a confidence issue than timing. Coos and NW ME have warnings where the confidence is higher even though it’ll start later there.

I mean, I guess you could make an argument of changing the criteria to liquid equivalent of frozen precip. 6” of 10:1 with 2” of sleet is more impactful than 12” of 20:1. That’s a difference of like 1.20” QPF versus 0.60”.

I’m leaning 6-8” here

I'd like to push Evan Kuchera down a flight of stairs.

lol...I'm not proclaiming ice storm. I just think you could have a period of -ZR/-ZL and not just be a brief flip to ZL before precip shutting off. The brunt of the precip should be SN/PL though. So I guess it's semantics. Maybe you'll rot at 32.4F and -DZ instead.

We'll see. Whoever can stay north of the sfc reflection and below 32F could get a period of -ZR. I don't think it'd be anything major, but I wouldn't rule it out. Kevin has 300' less to refreeze drops back into pellets too.

I could see Kevin being more zr than ip.

I will accept the solution with the least QPF possible.

There's some wiggle room there on the 3k NAM for BOS. The max profile temp gets above 0C before 00z, but +2C doesn't until 2z. The GFS is quite a bit colder, but I'd lean toward the Nammy. If the NAM is 1C too warm that could mean a couple hours extra of snow vs crap.

If he does it would be brief.

Meanwhile you can see the drier air working SW on vis satellite as the clearing line slowly collapses SW through MA. But we already know the low levels will be cold anyway.

Take tonight's 00z NAM warm tongue to the bank...whatever that is.

It'll probably get up to C VT and C/N NH like the last one. They need to scrap the GFS and start from scratch.

That's why we like to get the shortwaves onshore. The GFS speeds up that southern streamer and keeps it potent right across the country. Previous runs lagged it back and had it get absorbed a bit by the trailing pacific ULL and then dampened downstream. Now we get the northern stream fropa and an attempt at getting the southern streamer up here. That's what I thought we had to have happen last night. I mean, this is still pretty much a crap solution, but congrats to those who want a colder rain. But at least there's a potential there to back something bigger and whiter into the region after a little CAA.

I'll go under.

None of them big enough to plug the bowl though.

Yeah...H7-H8 is the big problem. We needed the secondary to really start blooming toward LI so we could get the mid levels backed more before we torch aloft.

Nammy still eventually pings up to BML and tamarack. So as usual, the hope is to squeeze as much snow out of the front end as we can. Looked like 6z was 2-3"+sleet for Ray's area and this run is about 4"+sleet for him.

I mean, we can get the secondary going up to 925mb, but if we're dryslotted aloft it could still be cloud diarrhea as Scoot so eloquently put it.

Definitely a good 1-2hours later with the changeover this run vs 6z. It's not a lot, but maybe it's the difference in a couple inches. These algorithms like to indicate IP as soon as any point in the mid-levels goes > 0.0C too, but you could still get another 30-60mins of refrozen flakes and large aggregates until the hydrometeors completely melt like Kevin did this morning.

I'd take the 80s if we can continue it into the summer. July with frequent canadian high preshah would be a nice change. Anything but all dews all the time and daily monsoons. I live in C NH...not the amazon.