dendrite

Is there FU with that?

Much better explanation than mine, but I was rushing to lock up my birds. Correlation has to do with the size and shape of the hydrometeors being sampled. A high correlation indicates precip with similar properties. Mixed precip will have different sizes and shapes (drops, flakes, etc) and will have a lower correlation (ie they don’t match up as well).

Sleet...it’s just below the mixing line aloft.

Here’s the rough estimate on the sleet line.

Getting some big growth with the H7 fronto right now.

No one in New England really expects to go the rest of the season snowless.

Looks like most of CT to PVD and PYM is into the pingers now.

16.6° -SN

Snow > Sleet > FZRA

Glenn Miller?

NAM will probably win this. Looked like some decent zr for Tolland on 12z.

Black history month.

I see katodog lurking. Any dreams lately buddy?

I would gladly take a just cold enough to snow pattern in March. Dump a foot, clear out, and then warm up to 40F with sun to clear the driveway and walkways.

We supplied you with a little bit of diabatically cooled air too. We were clear all night, but maintained light N flow.

It's called sarcasm and I've always had it. No need to be a snowflake.

Is this your equivalent of his days and days of snow?

I do believe in the "unpredictable chaos/luck" aspect, but I feel like there is something more to the pattern here just like most of the 80s. Torching cutters followed by arctic cold that frequently struggles to hold its ground ahead of the next system is a pattern flaw to me that may/may not have been predictable from a longer lead. Obviously no one will nail down the details of if it will be 36" or 29", but you could maybe say we're going to be more prone to cutters and retreating cold. This has been a crap pattern with chaos also not in SNE's favor so it's been a ratter to date. How much is chaos and how much is pattern? Who knows? But even in super ninos we can score some good events when chaos is on our side. Modeling will continue to improve with time (long range too). But calculating the methane and heat release of every cow dump in the world is difficult for the models to factor in. The models use parameterization anyway where they kind of avg out certain aspects of the geography and conditions to get a best guess estimate of certain variables. They're not factoring the frictional coefficient around PF's picnic tables or a dead hanging branch from one of Kevin's oak trees.

I don't have a lot of faith in anything big for Monday. A couple of s/w's really start digging that western trough deep and try to pump the SE ridging as that system cuts across the OH valley. I'm afraid that s/w will get a little too sheared out or just not be able to amplify much even if we get a little secondary going. We'll see...hopefully the snow starved can at least get a light all-snow event.

Up to 9/-4

More gradient fun over the next week while the west keeps gettin' troughy wit it.

14/-3 here and winds still gusting to 15mph.

The warm tongue just looks more realistic on the NAM to me than the GFS...coming in like an anvil from H7 downward while the GFS pushes the same temp and temp advection through a 150mb layer for 6+ hrs.

Why does everything have to be "historic?"

Looks like I flip to sleet around 3z after 5-6" of snow. Then we pelt.