Extreme weenie modelology here, but I've found taking the peak MOS wind number and doubling it gives you a good estimation for max gusts (mph). FWIW, lots of 25-30 numbers for Mon.
Definitely looks windy on Monday....sun will really enhance the mixing. I'll take the under on 60mph for most though. There will probably be a lot of 45kt+ gusts though.
Even 00z NAM/GFS 2m temps had me in the mid 20s/near 20 for this morning so it isn't just a MOS or lack of radiational cooling issue. But yeah, we approach the season when models start to overestimate the cold and the sun starts laughing at 2m temp progs.
Yup...below 4C the water molecules start to arrange themselves in hexagonal arrangements in preparation for freezing at 0C. I’ve found you need to get the wetbulbs above that 3-4C mark to really start melting the snow in a torch.