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dendrite

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Everything posted by dendrite

  1. dendrite
    925 looks pretty cold
  2. dendrite
    20.8° -SN 1.4” of fluff so far
  3. dendrite
    Last 4 runs of the goofus. More downstream ridging and curling in of that vortmax
  4. dendrite
    Maybe…not sure how much effect it would have on the orientation of the vortmax at that scale, but I guess the more data to initialize in the better.
  5. dendrite
    GFS is a lot more amped and NW. AI is a bit too.
  6. dendrite
    heh…yeah maybe. I still think they tend to broadbrush too much, but maybe it’s a signal if they’re significantly NW with QPF. We need one of those events with a sharp N cutoff to see if they can pin down tight gradients.
  7. dendrite
    Some of these runs look a hair flatter, but they’re finding a way to get more precip NW.
  8. dendrite
    We’re going to be in trouble when NCEP drops all of the models for just the rrfs.
  9. dendrite
    It’s doing some weird troughy things wherever the incremental QPF maxes are.
  10. dendrite
    19.6° -SN Maybe a couple tenths so far
  11. dendrite
    Looks like the goofus will come in a little more amped
  12. dendrite
    You can see how the 12km really curls the tail of the vortmax in at 48hr versus what the icon and rgem do.
  13. dendrite
    Yeah NNE has been fooled by a zonked 12k run late in the game many a time. Looks like the rgem is a tick east.
  14. dendrite
    I mean it’s not like you’d be missing much from either event.
  15. dendrite
    3k not as enthused
  16. dendrite
    Lol
  17. dendrite
    I think there’s too much spacing to really have much effect.
  18. dendrite
    Yeah that late little amplification of the vortmax gives E MA a little boost before it slides east.
  19. dendrite
    My post was true
  20. dendrite
    It’s curling the southern end of the vortmin pretty good as it approaches SNE. We’ll have to see if that suite trends that way.
  21. dendrite
    NAM was the flattest at H5…looks more in line now to me
  22. dendrite
    They’re learning that it’s fun to troll weather weenies
  23. dendrite
    Heh…I remember seeing this story before
  24. dendrite
  25. dendrite
    I’d rather compare the upper levels rather than QPF. It seems like they throw QPF further back than you would expect from the shortwave, but sometimes as you get close the shortwaves trend more amplified. So are the AIs sometimes right for the wrong reasons?
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