dendrite

Man the GFS has a lot of frozen QPF Sunday.

I remember VT being a bit of a mess during that torch in late March 98...not sure how it was up your way.

No up here. It feels like March with the bright sun reflecting off the pack, clear driveways, and relatively tolerable teens. But we’ve had pack since Dec.

His model uses 2D coordinates.

Phew. Thank god. I was afraid I would have to make a forecast without the aide of the GFS.

Harwich?

In that product the EC is usually the clear #1 and the Ukie is a clear #2. #3-5 changes by the week between the GFS, FV3, and GGEM, but it's almost like the past month featured the Ukie as #2 and the GGEM as #2a. Looks like the EC destroyed everyone on 2/15, but it was a lot more competitive the rest of the month...especially since 2/18.

Tomorrow looks just as cold as today...pretty chilly Friday morning too although that may be a morning where CON/1P1 is 5F and you're at 15F with a breeze on the hill. I think we say bye to the deep winter cold mid morning Friday.

It's been performing better as of late. Did the GGEM get an upgrade? Pretty high score for its standards.

Put this line in BUFKIT

I think you hit the nail on the head. We’re not “excited” for it. Expect a couple inches of glop before the cold fropa comes through to give us a day in the 40s.

They can “havre” that shit.

Not sure which sites you’re forecasting for at which times, but I find a lot of my snow ratios seem to be skewed toward higher density snowfalls. This is unscientific, but it seems we have a peak around 9-10:1 for overrunning events and then it tails off toward 25:1. The few times I’ve checked the GYX ratio maps I usually see something that looks Kuchera-ish with 13:1 south and a gradient working up to 16:1 in the mtns...more or less hovering near climo. I’ll admit, I don’t check that product a lot so I may be off base on that. But maybe there’s an overestimate of ratios when forecasting for 6+? Some of these climo ratios for sites are probably a hair too high anyway given undercatch of the precip gauges. The AWPAGs are better now, but how were climo sites at BOS and CON getting their water equivs back in the day? Melted cores? Catching snow in the can and melting it down? Heated tippers like in the 90s? I think I tend to lean conservative. I’m more worried about what can go wrong than what could go right. But then again I grew up as a Red Sox fan pre-2004.

2.8° So over this crap.

What does the Aussie show?

Sounds more like a divorce than a death? Out with the old and in with the new, young model?

There was quite a bit of snow up at the old Cannon site too. https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-476E6A15-A7FF-476E-B92C-8D1D1890BBE2.pdf

Yeah, if we're going to "Morch" it better be 60+ this time of year.

severe drizzle maybe

I will say it's like a switch gets flipped on March 1st solar wise. 23F here at 1230p and plenty of melting wherever snow or ice is adjacent to a dark surface. Hopefully we can clear the roof before the next big rain.

Would that be May for you?

That was the depth.

You lose some, you win some. https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-3E84BAFD-BA5A-44F6-8AE0-D25EF98277B2.pdf

Rain of yore. https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-E5E8A0BA-E4DF-48BF-A2CB-F4E23281027C.pdf

Freshet!