dendrite

herpes is just running now

The ARPEGE went wild up here with the pivoting midlevel banding late in the system. Fluff city for 6-12hrs.

I'll take the weenie 2" QPF in the form of snow

That secondary low that forms off of ACY really gets elongated and the isobars get “pulled” back as it tries to escape as the H5 ULL trails well behind. That’s an inv trough look as the PVA moves in aloft to kink those sfc isobars and form a convergence zone. There’s other forcing mechanisms also going on in the midlevels to our SW. Eventually H5 catches up and we get a new sfc low that sorta goes bonkers and gets pulled back in toward ENE like one of those classic blizzard loops before the whole shebang moves out. I just think it’s going to be a mess to figure out after the WAA portion. I’m not really stressing over any solutions...just sitting back and seeing how it’ll play out.

I’m enjoying tracking this one. I feel like this system has some tricks up its sleeve...whether that results in something favorable or not for us.

Where do you calculate the greatest omega to be?

Not too much different from the other models. It's later on Monday where they have to score.

12z herpes through Monday morning.

I think it drops off pretty quickly from 92. There's some 12-18" storms that probably round out the top 5, but Will can give you the deets. edit..looks like he did...lol

The chickens are thankful for the ICON this holiday season.

Where have you been the last 3 years?

Keep in mind those TT maps include PL.

They should run it to 384 for shits and giggles. It may try to throw canes our way in January.

This run bombs the NH/MA border.

How does H7 look on the euro compared to the nam?

SE NH has had some biggies of 20+. It’s just cycles. We don’t do too well with the 30” ones though.

We’ve gotten big hits. Both 2011 storms we were in the deform pivots. We got bombed Feb and Mar 01. Maybe 2021 will be our next big year.

It’s kinda funny to even see modeled. It’s like July up there.

Meh...you know how these systems go. Just when everyone things they have it figured out we get some wtf’s as it starts playing out. I’m not saying it’s right...just saying if we wake up Mon morning and it’s a peltfest up to Tippy I wouldn’t be surprised either. Basically I lean way more on your side, but from a probabilistic perspective I give it a 5% chance.

Probably not even cold enough aloft for nucleation...lol. It has BED reaching -2C at H65. I agree with Ray...toss that for now. The 12km is warm enough for a higher end goalpost.

Already some decent convection just west of the MS this morning.

You know how the nammy works...it’s usually the warmest in that 700-825 layer with WAA. It seems to verify about half the time. But the 3k is a good 1-2C warmer than it’s lower res cousin.

3km is warmer than the 12km. Idk if I buy it being that warm, but I wouldn’t just toss it like he did...maybe keep it in the back of my mind and see how the 12z models trend way upstairs. The 3k even tries to mix up to CON.

This is what we do. As soon as we start to see model consensus they start spiraling into the abyss.