dendrite
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Everything posted by dendrite
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Wow. What a smart cover.
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It’s the NAM vs everything else for a big event up here. That’s usually not a good sign.
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If you like to toss the HRRR past 6hr imagine how good the 48hr HRRR is.
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herpe derpe (thru 48)
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Don't forget the warm tongue.
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Yeah...that image shows it well. There was just something about the 12z model suite that left me thinking the pieces on the table weren't spaced right. The midlevels looked decent over NYC and the models kept dropping blobs of heavy QPF around the city with inverted troughing. It just looked like one of those deals where it would get its act together more SW of where it was being progged. We'll see. The Euro will probably roll in and laugh at the rest of the 00z suite.
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I'm going to keep deferring to a higher res version until I get one that I like.
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I just think it may develop a bit quicker to our SW...a more organized sfc low and better inflow south of LI. The RGEM almost has a stinger east of NJ. The arm of mid-level fronto could still swing pretty far northward...even up by me. idk...just kinda brainstorming while looking at a bajillion models and sipping an espresso. I'm not going to pretend to know how it will work out. I can't do millions of calc equations in my head per second.
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My hunch has been that inverted trough sig toward NYC becomes a bigger deal and everything starts shifting south on the models. Looks like 00z is trending that way.
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There's a dry conveyor punching in behind the WCB. Just gotta get that midlevel circulation to redevelop quickly south of you and get that flow back out of the east.
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In the end, save a horse?
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Where is the high res RGEM out? I'm still getting the regular RGEM to trickle in.
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Bet you never thought you'd say that.
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heh...the cold biased GFS still finding ways to blow chunks by being too warm in storm systems.
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Congrats Mitch
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3k was still meh compared to 12k.
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RPM?
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3k wants none of that 12k nonsense.
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Viewing the 3k nude right now.
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Snow. At least at that moment.
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Hope you're enjoying Dallas. I was just up in Plymouth yesterday killing my Christmas tree at Glove Hollow.
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Yeah I agree.
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Tidbits has the model derived snowfall for it. The numbers are way more pessimistic than that 10:1...more like that 3km NAM deal.
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If I was in N NJ I wouldn't even be using protection with that.
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Just keep drawing names until you find a model you like. There's one for everyone out there. As a last resort go through each individual SREF member.
