dendrite

83/72 Minus 50

Yeah...once you lose any remnant of an ice nuclei it gets tough. It’s hard enough to get deposition at -6C even with salt nuclei.

The warm layer is probably deep enough and warm enough here for all ZR in the high terrain in NE CT.

A weenie +10C spec at 810mb sitting over -6C at 840mb. It almost looks like a velocity couplet.

Out in MRG land 15z Monday.

IP into N CT this run.

idk man...those dews advecting in through Maine are frigid and will probably keep the low levels wetbulbed safely in the IP range pretty far south. That slug of moisture from the SW hitting the dry brick wall will just evap cool down and be advected back southwestward in the low levels as a cold air feed. It does look a bit like a mini barrier jet scenario like what they get out in the Rockies...I know Will had mentioned that the other day. This is the southern extent of the low dew push on the 3k NAM. That's valid 21z Monday after the event has been ongoing for 18+ hours.

He may need a therapy session with Tippy

Sounds like premature eglaciation

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/weather-underground-bought-by-ibm.html

You're in Enfield. Don't rule out anything.

Naked and afraid?

3k nam backed off on the southern extent of the ice.

Suicidal tendencies?

Not sure the last time I saw a map like this.

GYX has more frozen in the expected snowfall totals versus the high end map. Not sure what happened there. Toilet backed up again?

Most of the meaningful precip is snow here with a brief period of IP at the end of part 1 and beginning of part 2 as the midlevels try to cool back down. 1.25-1.50" QPF will result in quite a mess. One little bump NE with warmer H8 air and we're talking half sleet and half snow. I think that's the route I'm leaning with a period of snow, solid pelting for awhile, and then we'll end as snow as the secondary begins to pick up.

The GFS is almost always warm in these setups.

Still a solid 3" pack throughout the yard here. It's a little thin under some of the spruce trees though. Max so far is 33.6F, but it's back down to 32.5F. I see Gene is up to 41F on the hill, but the lower els from Woodstock to Plymouth/Ashland to Sanbornton are dropping back into that 30-32F range. Of course the boundary is already through aloft so we won't mix out now until 1000ft is getting into the 30s.

I'd pay to see this fall on BOS.

Fail.

Clown fetish.

Just got a puff of wind. Up to 33.3F. We should mix out soon. Hopefully soon enough so we can melt the walkways. It's pretty treacherous out there.

Up to 32.4F. Looks like I'm one of the last few in the state to finally go above the 32F mark. Still a solid 3" pack here.