dendrite

Hard to tell what it's doing up there. Looks like some flakes, but they're mostly in the clouds. The warm layer will be well above them when it noses in later.

30.0F -SN A tenth or 2 so far.

31.7/27 -SN

idk...seems to be going according to plan to me. It's a meh airmass until the low level CAA feed arrives tomorrow. We've been talking about it for days how some places, even ORH, could start as plain rain and then start flipping toward sunrise.

The real cold air doesn’t advect in until the early morning. It’s probably a mixed bag of pellets and/or liquid drops until then.

32/26

41° off of a high of 44° at the STEM today. Nice day.

His first car window accretion to verify.

Still tossed like a DIT meal out a car window after a holiday GTG.

I actually don't think you're going to see much of a dew "feed" today. That comes in later tomorrow after the precip has already begun. So some expecting ice to the SW may start as some ZR, latently warm toward freezing or go above, and then wait for some lower dews to feed in toward sunrise.

H7 temps valid 12z tomorrow... Euro ------ GFS GGEM --- ARPEGE

The maps are wrong based on H7 temps. It tries to show us snowing at times despite H7 being >0C. I almost wonder if the model is seeing the pixie dust snow grains in the cold layer and giving that predominance on ptype. Maybe we do better than 2-4" but heavy heavy toss.

Hard sell on those euro snow maps for up here.

Yup..definitely a trend toward more sleet up here. I'm leaning 2-4" snow and then pile up the pingers.

83/72 Minus 50

Yeah...once you lose any remnant of an ice nuclei it gets tough. It’s hard enough to get deposition at -6C even with salt nuclei.

The warm layer is probably deep enough and warm enough here for all ZR in the high terrain in NE CT.

A weenie +10C spec at 810mb sitting over -6C at 840mb. It almost looks like a velocity couplet.

Out in MRG land 15z Monday.

IP into N CT this run.

idk man...those dews advecting in through Maine are frigid and will probably keep the low levels wetbulbed safely in the IP range pretty far south. That slug of moisture from the SW hitting the dry brick wall will just evap cool down and be advected back southwestward in the low levels as a cold air feed. It does look a bit like a mini barrier jet scenario like what they get out in the Rockies...I know Will had mentioned that the other day. This is the southern extent of the low dew push on the 3k NAM. That's valid 21z Monday after the event has been ongoing for 18+ hours.

He may need a therapy session with Tippy

Sounds like premature eglaciation

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/weather-underground-bought-by-ibm.html

You're in Enfield. Don't rule out anything.