dendrite

Good first post. Welcome aboard. Usually we just hand out weenies, but you're german so here's a frankfurter.

idk...these setups can keep a pesky relatively warm shallow layer east of the high terrain with NW flow and slowly drying low levels. I'm leaning on the pessimistic side. Hope for flakes at the end. A coating or more is a bonus. I'll be happy up here if we get a coating.

Yeah. Like maybe a couple in the Berks.

GOAT Mad respect bro.

That was a record early melt. Almost got it on his birthday. You could see it brewing yesterday like the Yellowstone caldera. I think the anger has been boiling over since the lack of dews the 2nd half of summer. Emo weather.

There should probably be new rules here. 1. No snow maps beyond d3 2. No 2m temp maps beyond d4 3. No QPF maps beyond d5 4. No op maps beyond d8 5. Only ens H5 heights beyond d10 6. No ICON, SREFs, or d3+ NAM at all. None. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200.

0.0”

I wonder when Ray will issue his first call for the picnic tables?

What’s the challenge in that? Even the JMA can nail a partly cloudy day in June.

Heck it used to be once per day back in the early WWBB days. We had to rely on coarse H5, slp, and H85 temp maps at 24hr intervals once per day. And good luck ever seeing QPF. A few lucky mets would have it and would describe it to us, but for awhile there it seemed like a mythical creature. So we'd declare the euro the unanimous winner when it showed the low pressure center inside the BM at 72hr and 850s below 0C while the AVN/MRF and NOGAPS would be a flat wave heading for Bermuda. The extra resolution the Euro had back then really gave it a big advantage over the American suite with its ability to track the s/w's and actually phase them when warranted. Times have changed though and so have the standards. My problem with flip floppy models is you don't know what's more right or wrong. At least a model making toddler steps toward the consensus may have some value....like Will's Boxing Day 2010 example. So the models are definitely better overall than they used to be, but with the higher resolution and advanced parameterization it's easier to get some burp/hiccup runs as well that leave you scratching your head wondering what to believe.

Especially with NW flow behind the front....downslope warming + drying.

Looks phantomish to me. BL is warm with the brunt of the precip and then it really hangs back a finger of precip as the deeper cold moves in. As if we didn't need more reasons to toss a GFS run.

Another nice shift south for CT

Once in a blue moon you get a 2011 and a horny 6th grade teacher too.

Can you locate for me the FV3 on the official government model website? All I can find is the GFS. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

JMA?

It’s almost like ecmwf decided to troll us with these solutions right after becoming lax with their products. Like a euro step in basketball.

lol...nice

Nah...I’m not giving it a lot. Look what it’s above. It’s like the AFC East. 8-1, 6-2, and then everyone else is 1-7.

Heh...I was kinda just pulling that list out of my rear. But it just seems like with the cold bias in the med/long range, its struggles with coastals (BL temps, precip, phasing, etc etc), and its tendency to always be an outlier, it just isn’t very useful. At least the Ukie tends to be #2 in H5 scores and the GGEM has caught up to the GFS at H5. The NAM can be a joke, but there’s times where it can be useful and onto something. Its biases tend to be predictable too.

ECMWF UKMET RGEM ARPEGE GGEM NAM GFS ICON NAVGEM

ARPEGE is from meteofrance. The 1km Swiss model is from Joerg from weather.us. I think it’s paywalled now behind weather.us and the sister site weathermodels.com by Maue.

The GFS is definitely #2. #2 as in a steaming hot pile of dog dung in Ginxy’s backyard.

A little ditty, a jack for Diane?