dendrite

35.4F with -SHRA. Hopefully we get shadowed a bit and keep it under 3/4".

Oh man let's lock that GFS run in.

Looks like the GFS is going to dump its northern stream goodies into the bayou too.

Euro is going bonkers down in Texas. I'm interested to see how it handles the early deep phase/ULL.

Stressing over d7-10 op progs is useless and generally hard to read. It’s fun to troll the weenies from time to time though.

We’re past peak now here. There’s a lag as you get closer to the coast due to the heat capacity of the ocean. But over the interior climo temps are on the way up.

Desperate weenies tend to latch onto d5+ fantasies. At those long ranges you need to look beyond the specifics. Every weenie knows this, but they don’t let it sink in to their noggin. Just focus on the upper air pattern until you get around d5...then start taking a peak at the surface trends. We all look at the LR fantasy op runs, but most of us do it in jest. If you can’t tolerate models showing 950mb sfc lows, and then losing it the next run, then maybe you need to stop looking at progs beyond a few days.

We're near peak winter climo. Wavelengths aren't shortening for awhile.

Could be an office thing. GYX has put out a few this winter. I can’t speak for BOX.

Agree. It was a good run for the 9ers. They just ran into a buzzsaw.

AQAs are pretty common in the valleys this time of year.

There’s nothing worse than wasting lots of snow on the major megalopolis cities.

Unable to wishcast a snow storm during peak winter and ending winter in late Feb. You may as well retire and move to Florida now.

It’s been like New Diego up here this month.

Where?

yup

CON with 17F for a low. So I guess the EC was the closest, but a blend would've worked out better.

Same deal here. Lots of trapped haze just north of CON on my way home yesterday. It cleared up as I got home, but the smoke made it my way before I cooped the birds up in the evening.

You downslope on strong E flow, right?

A light breeze and mixed skies are keeping the temp up in the upper 20s. Hopefully we don't have the bottom fall out again overnight or at least mi casa is above the inversion. MET/MAV for CON are 10F and 11F for CON tomorrow morning, but ECM MOS is much warmer at 21F. It'll be interesting to see which side is closer. 27F there are of 00z.

Actually warmer here (41F) than CON (38F) this afternoon...rare, especially for this time of year. Very little mixing under the high today...just enough for here, but not enough in time for the rad pits.