dendrite

There's a dry conveyor punching in behind the WCB. Just gotta get that midlevel circulation to redevelop quickly south of you and get that flow back out of the east.

In the end, save a horse?

Where is the high res RGEM out? I'm still getting the regular RGEM to trickle in.

Bet you never thought you'd say that.

heh...the cold biased GFS still finding ways to blow chunks by being too warm in storm systems.

Congrats Mitch

3k was still meh compared to 12k.

RPM?

3k wants none of that 12k nonsense.

Viewing the 3k nude right now.

Snow. At least at that moment.

Hope you're enjoying Dallas. I was just up in Plymouth yesterday killing my Christmas tree at Glove Hollow.

Yeah I agree.

Tidbits has the model derived snowfall for it. The numbers are way more pessimistic than that 10:1...more like that 3km NAM deal.

If I was in N NJ I wouldn't even be using protection with that.

Just keep drawing names until you find a model you like. There's one for everyone out there. As a last resort go through each individual SREF member.

herpes is just running now

The ARPEGE went wild up here with the pivoting midlevel banding late in the system. Fluff city for 6-12hrs.

I'll take the weenie 2" QPF in the form of snow

That secondary low that forms off of ACY really gets elongated and the isobars get “pulled” back as it tries to escape as the H5 ULL trails well behind. That’s an inv trough look as the PVA moves in aloft to kink those sfc isobars and form a convergence zone. There’s other forcing mechanisms also going on in the midlevels to our SW. Eventually H5 catches up and we get a new sfc low that sorta goes bonkers and gets pulled back in toward ENE like one of those classic blizzard loops before the whole shebang moves out. I just think it’s going to be a mess to figure out after the WAA portion. I’m not really stressing over any solutions...just sitting back and seeing how it’ll play out.

I’m enjoying tracking this one. I feel like this system has some tricks up its sleeve...whether that results in something favorable or not for us.

Where do you calculate the greatest omega to be?

Not too much different from the other models. It's later on Monday where they have to score.

12z herpes through Monday morning.