Yeah I think the problem this run was a weaker s/w. It never gets latitude and then just triple points eastward. To have a prayer up here it needs to be zonked and curling toward LI before the redevelopment more E-ENE.
That s/w is turning negative and that is a potent tight vort. I thought the flow in the northern stream was looking a little flatter with another s/w modeled further south this run.