dendrite

The future. https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/unified-forecast-system

Heh...that looks like the para gfs run from 00z.

That s/w is turning negative and that is a potent tight vort. I thought the flow in the northern stream was looking a little flatter with another s/w modeled further south this run.

Beware the shitstreak on this gfs run.

I’d take that solution and run too.

The paraplegic GFS has consistently looked like the most likely outcome.

I’m glad we learned a lot from the clown maps a week ago.

You’ve got multiple events there.

We’re outside looking in right now, but you know how it goes. A little less confluence and a little more amplification south and it won’t take many bumps to get a fronto band up here on the north side of the QPF gradient. Odd are against it, but we’ve seen it before.

Kinda, sorta, not really.

Pretty much. It’s going to take a lot of Kraft tugs to get this one enough north for a big hit so I may need to cheer on the Cam pick 6.

I’m in the all or nothing camp. If it’s not going to be big then give me blue sky and SNE cirrus.

It was mostly after 12z. PWM,2017-12-25 04:51,KPWM 250451Z 02010KT 10SM SCT027 OVC100 M05/M08 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP206 T10501083 400111050 PWM,2017-12-25 05:02,KPWM 250502Z AUTO 03011KT 10SM BKN027 OVC100 M05/M08 A3013 RMK AO2 T10501083 PWM,2017-12-25 05:51,KPWM 250551Z AUTO 02012KT 10SM OVC023 M06/M09 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP179 T10561089 11028 21056 58052 PWM,2017-12-25 06:51,KPWM 250651Z AUTO 03012KT 10SM OVC022 M06/M09 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP168 T10561089 PWM,2017-12-25 07:51,KPWM 250751Z AUTO 03013KT 9SM -SN OVC022 M06/M09 A2996 RMK AO2 SNB48 SLP146 P0000 T10611089 PWM,2017-12-25 08:51,KPWM 250851Z AUTO 04014G22KT 10SM OVC024 M06/M09 A2990 RMK AO2 SNE37 SLP126 P0001 60001 T10611094 58053 PWM,2017-12-25 09:43,KPWM 250943Z AUTO 04011KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC025 M07/M09 A2986 RMK AO2 SNB14 P0000 T10671094 PWM,2017-12-25 09:51,KPWM 250951Z 04013KT 2SM -SN OVC025 M07/M09 A2985 RMK AO2 SNB14 SLP110 P0000 T10671094 PWM,2017-12-25 10:09,KPWM 251009Z 02015KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC023 M07/M09 A2982 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0000 T10671089 PWM,2017-12-25 10:51,KPWM 251051Z 03014G24KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC028 M07/M09 A2977 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP082 P0001 T10721089 PWM,2017-12-25 11:51,KPWM 251151Z 03013G20KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW015 SCT020 OVC027 M07/M09 A2972 RMK AO2 SLP066 P0001 60003 70003 T10721094 11056 21072 58059 PWM,2017-12-25 12:51,KPWM 251251Z 02012G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN014 OVC026 M08/M09 A2962 RMK AO2 SLP031 P0003 T10781094 PWM,2017-12-25 12:53,KPWM 251253Z 02012G19KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN016 OVC026 M08/M09 A2961 RMK AO2 P0001 T10781094 PWM,2017-12-25 13:51,KPWM 251351Z 01014G19KT 3/4SM -SN BR OVC015 M08/M11 A2956 RMK AO2 SLP012 P0002 T10831106 PWM,2017-12-25 14:51,KPWM 251451Z 34017G23KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV015 M09/M11 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 34032/1433 SLP994 P0003 60008 T10891106 56072 PWM,2017-12-25 15:51,KPWM 251551Z 33015G23KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M09/M11 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 34030/1527 SLP986 P0003 T10941106 PWM,2017-12-25 16:51,KPWM 251651Z 04013G20KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M06/M07 A2946 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP976 P0012 T10611072 $ PWM,2017-12-25 17:27,KPWM 251727Z 31012G26KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV010 M06/M07 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 33028/1705 P0005 T10561067 $ PWM,2017-12-25 17:51,KPWM 251751Z 30010KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV013 M05/M06 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 33028/1705 SLP994 P0007 60030 T10501061 11050 21094 55000 $ PWM,2017-12-25 18:07,KPWM 251807Z 29009KT 1SM SN BR BKN018 OVC035 M05/M06 A2952 RMK AO2 P0001 T10501061 $ PWM,2017-12-25 18:12,KPWM 251812Z 29010KT 2SM SN BR BKN020 OVC035 M05/M06 A2953 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0001 T10501061 $ PWM,2017-12-25 18:14,KPWM 251814Z 28012KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW009 BKN020 OVC035 M04/M06 A2953 RMK AO2 P0001 T10441061 $ PWM,2017-12-25 18:51,KPWM 251851Z 24006KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR FEW017 BKN042 OVC049 M04/M06 A2958 RMK AO2 SLP018 P0001 T10441061 $ PWM,2017-12-25 19:29,KPWM 251929Z 23006KT 10SM BKN045 OVC110 M04/M06 A2959 RMK AO2 SNE07 P0000 T10391056 $

Looks like a lot of big hits up here based on the eps individual modeled snow depths at 144hr. We wait and let it play out.

Here's the last 3 runs. Quite a different look vs 12/18z.

Southern stream is pretty amped this run and the confluence shoots right on out. Not saying it's right...it's the German model for god's sake...but I'm not surprised it's way more N this run based on the upper air.

GFS paraplegic last night looked somewhat similar (edit...bad take here...similarly amped but they get there differently)

Congrats Freak

I honestly don't cheer away your snow...but you know how these things go. No one was going to melt much today with low sun angle and low dews. The problem comes at some point Sat night/Sun morning when you warm sector and mix those dews in. It won't be one of those 58/58 torches, but could be 50/47 or something before the CAA gets kicking. Hopefully you keep your pack coverage.

Don't do it to yourself. Bend over and take your annual SNE boning.

I’ll let you in on the inside joke Dave. It’s the ongoing annual joke in this subforum. The annual Grinch cutter that let’s everyone open their windows Xmas eve while Rudolph guides Santa in his speedo.

You know SNE will get crushed and we’ll get 2” of wind blown salt and sugar.

She’s making the same face you made while jumping into the hole.

SUNY MM5 was like Freak’s ARW for me. It was my last resort when all else failed. You could also dig deep into the old SREF members to find an eta or rsm solution you liked. The NGM was always good for downslope weenies because it was coarse enough to gloss over any meso aspects. Wraparound snows for days SE of the mtns too.

Wxbell is his dunkin donuts.