dendrite

Is she the one who hooks you up with the lady friends?

It’s already settled to 9:1 here. We have a solid 2” of liquid in our 17”...not sure what you guys had for w.e. out there. Sometimes you guys flood with warmth a little easier over there to my east without the ageostrophic flow keeping the cold advection pumping in.

Nice to see the euro slash those rain progs down to 1-1.5” and limit the warmth. We always overperform the models with retaining the cold even if we eventually succumb to the sfc warm front, so it’ll be interesting to see how long we can maintain 30s on Xmas eve. Hopefully the GFS is correct with most of the rain during the night hours so that it’ll hopefully all be soaked in by the time my birds are ready to come out. 6” of water in the run with 20 birds waiting in a coop would make for a stressful Xmas morning.

These numbers still make me laugh. It looks like a typo. 12/01 62.5 39.7 0.00 0.0 0 12/02 40.6 30.3 0.00 0.0 0 12/03 45.1 24.6 0.00 0.0 0 12/04 51.9 30.2 0.00 0.0 0 12/05 37.1 31.6 1.12 3.1 3 12/06 31.8 26.1 T T 3 12/07 27.9 24.6 0.00 0.0 3 12/08 28.5 21.4 0.00 0.0 3 12/09 30.4 19.5 0.00 0.0 3 12/10 38.6 27.8 0.00 0.0 3 12/11 39.4 24.5 0.00 0.0 3 12/12 38.3 26.7 0.10 0.0 3 12/13 39.0 31.7 0.13 0.0 2 12/14 36.0 28.4 T T 2 12/15 31.1 11.7 0.00 0.0 2 12/16 20.9 8.6 T T 2 12/17 20.8 13.9 1.89 34.4 31 12/18 23.3 6.5 0.00 0.0 28 12/19 26.9 -0.9 0.00 0.0 21 12/20 26.2 14.6 0.01 0.2 19 3.25 37.7

Actually the opposite. I expect payback so I'm hoping this counts as us being even.

Congrats S NH on the jack. Guess that makes us even now.

25.5° -SN Coating...nbd.

Yeah I’ve had a few in that 18-21” range since 2006, but nothing over that. I’m assuming he didn’t get back to the early 2000s yet though since this area did well in a few events back then. Now my record daily snowfall is higher than ORH’s and my greatest storm is only 0.1” less.

I understand your point, but the other 12z models aren't out yet either. This run sped up the fropa quite a bit.

GFS actually has the cold fropa before midnight so the high on the 25th up here would be like U30s or L40s. 1-1.50" of rain would be a win too. We may be able to hold the cold right up until the fropa as well. That would make the pack pretty much indestructible until March.

You can order the individual parts separate...fyi in case you didn’t know already.

GFS is fast enough up here that we actually maintain a little in-situ CAD to minimize the damage. That model is really best case scenario...less rain, less warmth, and less duration of warmth. I really don’t need hydro issues on Christmas day.

heh...maybe it’s measured correctly and they just found a way to screw up the liquid sample, but it sounds like a packed down drift or something. There was definitely a max just to my NW though based on the multiple obs around 40” and Danbury is in that zone. I just hate seeing a report where I know part of it is severely flawed.

Heh...so they’re the Danbury ob and they’re marketing it. Their SWE is way off so I still don’t trust the numbers.

They’ll be warmer than that if this verifies...well into the 40s.

Don’t worry though. It’ll find a way to snow in early May again.

Kind of a bummer to know that I’ve probably already had my deepest winter look of the season.

4-5” of rain for you. 3” here in deformed land. Major flood threat.

An all day assault.

Thought the northern stream could run out ahead of it longer, but it eventually decides to dive in and phase anyway. Delayed but not denied.

Euro is digging the southern stream way into the southwest.

It’s all in fun in here. Have a laugh. We all bust each other. None of us want a torch Christmas.

I’ll have a dew, Christmas, without snow I’ll breathe those dews, while southeast, winds blow Decorations of red, full of humidity Wouldn’t be Christmas, if the lawn just wasn’t green

That’s how I thought we could pull it off. Some of the ensemble members did that...then we fropa and get a mixed system coming up from the southern stream only. Unfortunately we have our synoptic hope in an 84hr NAM prog.