dendrite

I recall S NH blowing away with +RA and 40s in Feb 2010.

Rain can stabilize things, but not always. Even if we’re “mixed” it’s going to be moist adiabatic with the high dews advecting in over the pack. It gets more difficult in the foothills and sheltered valleys where the latently cooled air can put up an easier fight, but there’s going to be a corridor just inland where the pack will go relatively quickly and the winds will be roaring off the deck with 59/59 at 2m. Idk...I can kinda see this going either way, but I feel like you’re getting a little Popeish here with the angry anti-wind posts and trying to pound your chest while going against the grain. I mean we get it, we know where you stand. But the NWS is hitting the concern pretty hard and some other mets too. Hey, I hope you’re right...we don’t need trees falling on travelers Christmas morning.

Yeah I can’t imagine having a tornado 3rd on my list because I had to put 2 other tornadoes in front of it. That’s some OKC nonsense right there.

I don't get warm events up here.

Nammy def had a bit of an inversion inland as well...but those 925 dews are pretty high and it wouldn’t surprise me if the typical just inland spots warm a bit more and mix some good gusts down.

I used to have a weenie method of taking those wind numbers, doubling them, and using that value as a peak gust in mph. 82mph seems a little high, but we’ll see. lol

Found this from 2018

The new goofus actually sped the front up like the old version. It'll be wrong. I guess old habits die hard.

Said the night wind to the snowy land Dew you see what I see? Raining from the sky snowy land Dew you see what I see? A storm, a storm Torching in the night With a gale melting all the white With a gale melting all the white Said the snowy land to the Tolland boy Dew you hear what I hear? Rumbles through the sky Tolland boy Dew you hear what I hear? A roar, a roar High above the trees Dropping oaks right into the sea Dropping oaks right into the sea

Near MHT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 982 97 13.6 12.2 91 1.4 12.8 154 24 288.2 289.8 286.6 313.8 9.12 2 950 380 12.5 11.5 94 0.9 11.9 161 62 289.8 291.4 287.2 315.3 9.02 3 900 832 10.0 9.9 100 0.1 10.0 166 75 291.8 293.3 287.5 316.2 8.55 4 850 1306 7.7 7.7 100 0.0 7.7 171 83 294.2 295.6 287.6 316.7 7.79

No uncertainty on the top 5 now. Dec 20 Oct 11 Mar 93 Mar 01 Dec 08

Here's a little composite loop of the event.

Awesome bird. Awesome pics. Just stay away from my chickens little buddy.

All the respect in the world for Jay, but I’ll take the ovah.

Someone will pull a dew near 60° down there.

If only we had a DGFS to run this out further.

Never had so much fun snowblowing...even though it took a couple of passes.

This is a good starting point.

3ft death band and a CCB in under 2 weeks. I’ll take it.

Yeah it would’ve been ugly with some of those previous euro runs.

The trees are still pretty caked up days later. Getting a little melting now with the temp creeping up to 31° for the first time in a week.

I can’t believe how quickly it compressed in half. It’s like seeing one of those LES storms around BUF where Oswego gets like 6ft and then you check depths a week later and the max out there is like a foot.

Is she the one who hooks you up with the lady friends?

It’s already settled to 9:1 here. We have a solid 2” of liquid in our 17”...not sure what you guys had for w.e. out there. Sometimes you guys flood with warmth a little easier over there to my east without the ageostrophic flow keeping the cold advection pumping in.

Nice to see the euro slash those rain progs down to 1-1.5” and limit the warmth. We always overperform the models with retaining the cold even if we eventually succumb to the sfc warm front, so it’ll be interesting to see how long we can maintain 30s on Xmas eve. Hopefully the GFS is correct with most of the rain during the night hours so that it’ll hopefully all be soaked in by the time my birds are ready to come out. 6” of water in the run with 20 birds waiting in a coop would make for a stressful Xmas morning.