dendrite
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Everything posted by dendrite
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
dendrite replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Congrats Atlanta. Ptype loop looks like Mar 93 going across the SE -
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South
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Low end warning here
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Ukie with a 0.50” of QPF for NYC.
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GGEM QPF kinda looks like that rufus run
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But this is an example of where I think AI is just broadly spreading QPF rather than honing in on details. That’s a lot more QPF in NNE vs deterministic models and less in SNE.
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AI goofus still paltry for New England
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People have short memories
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Way Last 3 runs
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Rufus way south
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For 30”
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Still not done at 84hr
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Weenie meso enhancement for you
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Really good backed flow pike-north Monday
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It’s being a little generous with the dgz there. -10C is out of the max dendritic zone.
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Looks like that energy ejecting out of the Baja is a little more south and neutered. It may be for the best on the S coast because it looked like thermals were running warmer DC-south.
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Nammy is coming in hot in the MidAtl
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@weatherwiz do any of these work for you? I forgot this guy’s page even existed https://www.wxcaster.com/isentropic.htm
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It’s a big push of isentropic lift…more of a consistent upglide over the cold dome. Sadly you can’t seem to find isentropic model maps anymore online. This would be a pretty cold isentropic surface to work with.
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That’s through 7am monday
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You’re ripping like 0.60”+/6hr at times. Even with clearing there’s going to be compaction on the bottom of those cores as the weight increases on the lower crystals. A little wind will break the crystals down a bit too. So I just find it hard to see 12-15” of fluff in 6hrs during the meat of it. If you were clearing hourly then yeah…you’re probably getting 20-25:1 hourlies at times.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
dendrite replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
There’s our perfect cane track -
Btw….to anyone using the Beta site on Pivotal be careful when clicking soundings. When I’m in landscape mode the lat/long is correct, but when I flip the view to portrait it’s shifting my longitude off by a solid 1°.
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I think that’s a good safe number. Soundings are pretty good here, but it’s tough to sustain huge ratios (20-25:1) with higher QPF. There’s a period on the euro where we’re saturated and in the DGZ from the sfc to H5.
