dendrite

3”...thanks euro. Right back to where we were a couple days ago. At least the drama was fun for 24hrs.

Yeah that HRRR mixed area looks like snow to me. Even though there’s dry air in the midlevels it’s still colder than -10C and you’ll have some salt nuclei. I was expecting to see the top of the cloud layer around -5C or something where you could have a nucleation issue, but it was like -10C to -15C in that purple zone just below the dry air aloft.

Could just be crapping out the warm conveyor and quickly pulling it east while the mid levels rot NW.

That's kinda what I was thinking. I'm seeing a lot of exotic high end numbers down there on the upper ranges and kuchies, but like you said, it won't be widespread. Someone like skimrg will probably rack up an 18-20" and rot under a band. Those kuchies are theoretical values based on temps too. You need that lift in the DGZ and it really doesn't matter how cold the warmest temp in the column is. Also, if you're thumping 0.75"-1.00" in 6hrs that snow sample is going to quickly weigh itself down...especially with wind involved too. It's not going to be a jspin sample of 5" with 0.15" liquid that's perfectly stacked like a game of Jenga. 20:1 is tough to sustain for even a 6hr clearing when you're talking that much liquid. So if kuchie is saying 20:1 with 0.75" liquid that's all fine and dandy, but the 15" will probably be only 12" at the 6hr clearing and 10" after 24hr.

Wondering if it’s a wall of +++SN down there with solid ratios and then it turns a little more ragged on radar with less impressive ratios as some drier air moves in aloft and the band shifts and sits north into MA/NH. Then it pivots through eastward for a last hurrah.

Nope. 6z gfs was close though.

Euro is still pedestrian up here. It’s more south than the goofus with the deform. I’m expecting to be too far north, but remain open to the possibility of a surprise.

Blech on the ukie. Starting to look like mesos vs globals up here.

Barbs look fine to me?

H7 low track looks pretty good. It’s just meh with the banding.

GFS still pedestrian up here...don’t really care as long as the euro gets warning criteria up here.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

The IBS

Maybe Tip can invite Pope and Harv over and they can talk it out?

Looks like that high pressure took him down.

Pope with the subforum jack?

Well I should say the fronto slopes toward the cold side with height. That prog is averaged in the H6-H8 layer...the strongest lift is H55-H6 which would be north of that averaged frontogenesis.

Keep in mind the deform bands are usually just north of the best fronto.

This will be fun for whoever gets under it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

Isn’t that FSU?

The Aussie!