dendrite

If only we had a DGFS to run this out further.

Never had so much fun snowblowing...even though it took a couple of passes.

This is a good starting point.

3ft death band and a CCB in under 2 weeks. I’ll take it.

Yeah it would’ve been ugly with some of those previous euro runs.

The trees are still pretty caked up days later. Getting a little melting now with the temp creeping up to 31° for the first time in a week.

I can’t believe how quickly it compressed in half. It’s like seeing one of those LES storms around BUF where Oswego gets like 6ft and then you check depths a week later and the max out there is like a foot.

Is she the one who hooks you up with the lady friends?

It’s already settled to 9:1 here. We have a solid 2” of liquid in our 17”...not sure what you guys had for w.e. out there. Sometimes you guys flood with warmth a little easier over there to my east without the ageostrophic flow keeping the cold advection pumping in.

Nice to see the euro slash those rain progs down to 1-1.5” and limit the warmth. We always overperform the models with retaining the cold even if we eventually succumb to the sfc warm front, so it’ll be interesting to see how long we can maintain 30s on Xmas eve. Hopefully the GFS is correct with most of the rain during the night hours so that it’ll hopefully all be soaked in by the time my birds are ready to come out. 6” of water in the run with 20 birds waiting in a coop would make for a stressful Xmas morning.

These numbers still make me laugh. It looks like a typo. 12/01 62.5 39.7 0.00 0.0 0 12/02 40.6 30.3 0.00 0.0 0 12/03 45.1 24.6 0.00 0.0 0 12/04 51.9 30.2 0.00 0.0 0 12/05 37.1 31.6 1.12 3.1 3 12/06 31.8 26.1 T T 3 12/07 27.9 24.6 0.00 0.0 3 12/08 28.5 21.4 0.00 0.0 3 12/09 30.4 19.5 0.00 0.0 3 12/10 38.6 27.8 0.00 0.0 3 12/11 39.4 24.5 0.00 0.0 3 12/12 38.3 26.7 0.10 0.0 3 12/13 39.0 31.7 0.13 0.0 2 12/14 36.0 28.4 T T 2 12/15 31.1 11.7 0.00 0.0 2 12/16 20.9 8.6 T T 2 12/17 20.8 13.9 1.89 34.4 31 12/18 23.3 6.5 0.00 0.0 28 12/19 26.9 -0.9 0.00 0.0 21 12/20 26.2 14.6 0.01 0.2 19 3.25 37.7

Actually the opposite. I expect payback so I'm hoping this counts as us being even.

Congrats S NH on the jack. Guess that makes us even now.

25.5° -SN Coating...nbd.

Yeah I’ve had a few in that 18-21” range since 2006, but nothing over that. I’m assuming he didn’t get back to the early 2000s yet though since this area did well in a few events back then. Now my record daily snowfall is higher than ORH’s and my greatest storm is only 0.1” less.

I understand your point, but the other 12z models aren't out yet either. This run sped up the fropa quite a bit.

GFS actually has the cold fropa before midnight so the high on the 25th up here would be like U30s or L40s. 1-1.50" of rain would be a win too. We may be able to hold the cold right up until the fropa as well. That would make the pack pretty much indestructible until March.

You can order the individual parts separate...fyi in case you didn’t know already.

GFS is fast enough up here that we actually maintain a little in-situ CAD to minimize the damage. That model is really best case scenario...less rain, less warmth, and less duration of warmth. I really don’t need hydro issues on Christmas day.

heh...maybe it’s measured correctly and they just found a way to screw up the liquid sample, but it sounds like a packed down drift or something. There was definitely a max just to my NW though based on the multiple obs around 40” and Danbury is in that zone. I just hate seeing a report where I know part of it is severely flawed.

Heh...so they’re the Danbury ob and they’re marketing it. Their SWE is way off so I still don’t trust the numbers.

They’ll be warmer than that if this verifies...well into the 40s.

Don’t worry though. It’ll find a way to snow in early May again.

Kind of a bummer to know that I’ve probably already had my deepest winter look of the season.

4-5” of rain for you. 3” here in deformed land. Major flood threat.