dendrite

I use Ginxsnewx.com

Nice. Now you have to sign up for CWOP.

RGEM is pretty weenieish for NNE too. Pretty cold aloft for more frozen than freezing.

Wow. Nice run right into SNE with the front end. Nice secondary development too for NNE.

GFS/ICON has a quick thump into VT/NH. But yeah, this isn't one of our high ends SWFEs.

ptype maps are showing a mix on the various sites for BML 84-87hr, but this is the raw sounding text for there at 87hr. Date: 87 hour GFS valid 15Z SAT 2 JAN 21 Station: KBML Latitude: 44.58 Longitude: -71.18 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 68 1 950 478 SFC 946 509 -2.3 -2.9 96 0.6 -2.6 135 5 275.2 275.7 273.5 284.1 3.26 3 900 907 -1.9 -2.4 97 0.5 -2.1 164 18 279.6 280.2 276.4 289.5 3.56 4 850 1364 -0.0 -0.2 99 0.1 -0.1 192 39 286.1 286.9 280.8 298.7 4.44 5 800 1850 -0.3 -0.4 99 0.1 -0.3 211 47 290.8 291.6 283.1 304.2 4.64 6 750 2366 -1.5 -1.7 99 0.2 -1.6 227 52 294.9 295.7 284.6 308.2 4.50 7 700 2913 -3.9 -4.2 98 0.3 -4.0 235 55 298.2 298.9 285.4 310.2 4.00 8 650 3495 -6.9 -7.3 97 0.4 -7.1 240 54 301.1 301.8 285.9 311.5 3.40 9 600 4116 -10.2 -10.6 97 0.4 -10.4 242 54 304.3 304.8 286.4 313.1 2.83 10 550 4781 -14.1 -14.4 98 0.2 -14.2 241 55 307.3 307.7 286.9 314.6 2.28 11 500 5497 -19.0 -19.1 100 0.1 -19.0 239 57 309.9 310.2 287.2 315.4 1.69 Definite warm layer aloft and close to ZR, but it still looks like snow to me at that point.

I'd be surprised if Wed is bigger. Maybe you get a little upslope after the fropa wednesday, but it'll probably be a mix/rain down here until we get the CAA.

Didn't look too bad up there. 3-5" or so and then a little mix/DZ before ending. Pretty typical of these things.

Really windy here in NW downslope land...CON has frequently gusted over 40mph. The low dews and wind make it pretty chilly despite mostly sunny skies and upper 20s. Should be lower single digits by morning if we decouple.

Yup. Snowing at BOS while raining in NE CT and IP/ZR at ORH??

I noticed on Pivotal that the snow totals took a decent jump here after the ptype algorithm had already flipped it to IP...was a red flag for me when I saw the big 10:1 numbers.

Nice quick burst of front end snow on the euro. Ptype maps even have SN over to BOS.

Be wary of the clown maps with this since there’s going to be a period of sleet.

Models are a mess up here. Euro and GFS16 with quite a bit of ZR. Maybe some S/IP to start.

Yeah...you definitely need a longer fetch to generate the streamers themselves...hence why Champlain needs a north wind or the very rare cold southerly wind. But it doesn’t take much of a body of water to enhance a system that’s already there. I’ve seen flurries flying in the air with clear skies down the hill along the Winnipesaukee River on very cold mornings near saturation. If you have a body of water that can produce decent radiation fog it’s going to create some moisture flux. I know there was some research from the LES crew I worked with in western NY that found there was even decent moisture flux on the Great Lakes with a mostly frozen surface. But the point is I agree...Champlain isn’t generating any precip on its own with those westerly components, but there will be some element of enhancement. Do you guys notice heavier snows from them earlier in the season versus mid season when Champlain creates higher delta Ts?

The Tug Hill rings out a lot of moisture before it hits the southern Dacks. There's probably not much left when it reaches the southern Greens. Those 250° northern Lake Ontario plumes can skirt around the Tug. Maybe there's a tiny bit of additional moisture flux feeding into it off of Champlain before it reaches the northern Greens too? I'll have to watch the low/mid level high res RH more during these upslope/LES events that reach VT.

A little black ice out there tonight. 32/31

Was Christine Miami, FL or Miami, WV?

Near 60F down there on Saturday on the Euro. I'm kinda jealous.

That 0.2" vaporized quickly.

+SN now...getting white again.

Moderate snow shower here too. Huge flakes.

The 16 looks a little more realistic.