dendrite

Sure. We always laughed at the 3k orographics and knew it was overdoing it in the mtns…it was more of a signal rather than taking the QPF verbatim. The 12k always seemed more zonked in coastals to me even near go-time. The running joke here in the winter is we’re always waiting for that run the day before a SNE biggie that jackpots here to northern VT. But the 3k was really good with CAD and (imo) ptype in those overrunning situations. Convection is hit or miss, but I never saw it as any worse than the other hires models. I just feel like it had its purpose and times where it was useful. We still seem reluctant to dive into full 4dvar like ecmwf. I haven’t talked to Alicia B. in years so I should pick her brain more, but maybe you can explain to me while we’re still messing with 3.5dvar or other hybrids. I remember a study many years ago that showed the gfs error scores were similar to the ec when using their data assimilation. So it seems like there’s value there.

Does he have an archive of vis captures from great coastal misses over the North Atlantic?

I think the MPAS is the v2 Scott referred to. The other has the broken FV3 core. Someone else more in the know can correct me if I’m wrong.

Actually I’m a meaty urologist, but this was the closest tag we had.

Looks like Pivotal recently changed up their RRFS products. They only had RRFS-A for awhile, but now there’s RRFS and GSL-MPAS-RRFSA. I’ll admit I haven’t been keeping up with the documentation on this.

That’s impressive for August

I actually thought the 3k did a good job most of the time…especially if the synoptics were being handled relatively well by most models. I had little to no use for the 12k. But at least we had a lot of experience with the nam and when to use it as guidance. I’m not a fan of trying to learn a new model with a (pun intended) rotten core.

The weekly crop moisture index seems to pass the eye test for 0-3m depth soil moisture. The drought monitor doesn’t seem applicable for someone like me growing plants and fruit trees

I think it could break positive if the mean trough is more over the lakes. It’s not overly torchy or anything though.

What in the sam hell is that filter he’s using? (The one from 8/15)

Only +1F instead of +10F?

So wait. The RRFS is known to have “bugs” with the FV3 core and it can’t be fixed until 2028, but we’re retiring the NAM soon anyway?

64° -DZ 0.05” breezy Kinda feels like mid September

Maybe we can get a cane in winter.

Min 49.7°

Still too long and cold for my liking. Another +1C doesn’t move the needle much up here.

DJFM But yeah, mostly just brief warmups between COC shots. I wouldn’t call it cold though. Summer and the sun angle are quickly fleeting though.

Hopefully virga so you can miss from above too

Here’s an old velocity image I have from Harvey from 9 years ago. CRP radar is due west of landfall so the radials extending eastward are giving you near 0 velocity since all of the wind east of the low are S and west of the low are N and nothing is going to, or away, from the beam.

1972-73 and 2022-23 were just a couple inches depending on the site.

Min 55.4° Starting to get too cold.

They were nuts in June…all biting insects have calmed in the past couple weeks.

The last frozen for winter 26-27?

Odds probably favor AN temps/precip and BN snow, but the super nino list is still SSS. Of course we’re embarking on unchartered waters this go around.

Thankfully he is nice and safe behind the seabreeze.