dendrite

There isn’t a lot of science in kuchera. It’s just based on the premise that the colder the max temp in the column is, the higher the ratio will be. But there’s a point where it goes too far the other end…especially in a setup like this where the low levels are so cold. It sorta assumes normal lapse rates in a storm and not something inverted. Usually a temp of 15-20° is a sweetspot here for mid level temps in the DGZ. But if the column is sitting at 5° or colder all the way up it just keeps assuming ratios are getting higher and higher. -18°C in the growth zone is the bottom limit for dendritic crystal habit. -20°C and colder you start getting bullets that are small and accumulate more densely. Yet if you look at the estimated kuchera ratios in Canada with -30C throughout the column it tries to paint 50:1.

That isn’t 10:1 either. That’s a built in snow total the HRRR puts out

Sleet from the mid levels and snow from the salt nuclei in the low levels?

So what did I have here last night? House cat or bobcat?

Just use the 10:1 and we can all just add 50% to it.

Brimson, MN COOP just came in with -43°

-6/-16

It’s weird wording to me. H5 was always going to slot with the trough to the west. I assume they mean H7, but it was always an isentropic push anyway…the saturated column is cold so it’s all snow below the relatively warmer nose. Unless they’re worried about Monday not panning out with northerly bumps.

IR is always a nice way to pinpoint the weenie cold spots.

I don’t quite understand the dryslot concerns for up here?

There’s a clear qpf gradient along the MA border up to here. We may risk some coastal front exhaust too.

if you were clear and calm you’d be -35° this morning.

I feel like we will need 1.2” liquid for those totals so I’m on the under. Even 15:1 event total for these amounts is high end. I’m on the 10-15” train.

-40° in Copenhgen NY You can see the -30s to -40 pretty clearly across MN, WI, MI, ON, NY on IR satellite as the snow surfaces show up green on this image.

It’s more hang back mid level goodies as the upper trough approaches and eventually swings through Mon night. Probably high ratio dendritic aggregates (think clumps of dendrites that cling together). Usually it’s like a 3/4sm high end -SN but it accumulates really efficiently.

It was a little more amped. No real big moves though.

On the nose of the dryslot

-30s around Watertown Some -40s in MN/WI -24 Flint -5 here

The column is too cold up to H5…toss the kuchie

-3° roaring

They have the DGZ too warm for a lot of that

It’s still Friday. Still time for bigger than noise changes.

Arctic front…always a chance. Had 0.2”ish here too.

NAM a tick north?

I was like Will with events in the 90s/00s but everything since 2010 is a 15 year blur.