dendrite

00z models are getting the deform back up here. RGEM and ICON look nice.

41% but a few were making it to the ground. I could see them in my headlights and my IR cam.

That’s kinda what we were talking about the other night. A wall of snow down there and then a ragged look on radar for awhile with low level lift below the DGZ and some drier air aloft.

You hate to see it.

20.5° First flakeage

Stark is north of phineas and alex. That’s getting up near Lancaster and Colebrook.

12-24 over par

Going to need one of these I’m afraid to get in on the big fun with everyone else.

That’s just fronto in 1 level. It slopes toward the cold side with height. The QS banding doesn’t have to magically line up with H7 all of the time. A lot of the time it’s 550-650. It’s like only using 850 temps for warmth aloft...sometimes it’s a torch between H7 and H85.

Temple will be buried

Cross sections...not time-height. Sorry...braintfart. I’d post them more, but I can’t click and drag with my phone and ipad.

MTP

best lift associated with this has been along the H6 warm front. So a map of 600mb fronto would probably be more indicative. Check those time-hgt plots on TT across the banding to see what height the best omega lines up with the best fronto.

Go to school and learn some things.

Sure, but models to some extent account for that.

Band is probably just NW of the H7 fronto. So W MA into S NH.

They canceled remote learning up here too. Like wtf.

3”...thanks euro. Right back to where we were a couple days ago. At least the drama was fun for 24hrs.

Yeah that HRRR mixed area looks like snow to me. Even though there’s dry air in the midlevels it’s still colder than -10C and you’ll have some salt nuclei. I was expecting to see the top of the cloud layer around -5C or something where you could have a nucleation issue, but it was like -10C to -15C in that purple zone just below the dry air aloft.

Could just be crapping out the warm conveyor and quickly pulling it east while the mid levels rot NW.

That's kinda what I was thinking. I'm seeing a lot of exotic high end numbers down there on the upper ranges and kuchies, but like you said, it won't be widespread. Someone like skimrg will probably rack up an 18-20" and rot under a band. Those kuchies are theoretical values based on temps too. You need that lift in the DGZ and it really doesn't matter how cold the warmest temp in the column is. Also, if you're thumping 0.75"-1.00" in 6hrs that snow sample is going to quickly weigh itself down...especially with wind involved too. It's not going to be a jspin sample of 5" with 0.15" liquid that's perfectly stacked like a game of Jenga. 20:1 is tough to sustain for even a 6hr clearing when you're talking that much liquid. So if kuchie is saying 20:1 with 0.75" liquid that's all fine and dandy, but the 15" will probably be only 12" at the 6hr clearing and 10" after 24hr.

Wondering if it’s a wall of +++SN down there with solid ratios and then it turns a little more ragged on radar with less impressive ratios as some drier air moves in aloft and the band shifts and sits north into MA/NH. Then it pivots through eastward for a last hurrah.

Nope. 6z gfs was close though.