dendrite

Yeah hopefully it’s a cold enough rain to preserve my piles. lol

Pretty drastic differences between the two 6z GFS’s.

NAM/Ukie were closest on QPF up here...GFS and Euro too high. I haven't looked at much as to why the lower end panned out, but the MWN winds were pretty tame compared to forecasts...maybe the LLJ just wasn't strong enough up here and we had weaker forcing.

It’s only 1850’ too. So definitely more like a condo area.

I was probably a bit harsh. They’re volunteers. I’m not sure where exactly the obs were taken. You can see the estimated liquid equivalent in the forms though.

We live in New England. It can snow in crap patterns and rain in good ones. I don’t think saying the pattern looks poor for the next couple of weeks is saying it can’t snow. It’s just saying the odds are against anything substantial.

I prefer to talk science with reality...not stubborn optimism.

Their COOP forms were always a joke. Everything was always rounded off and you can tell they estimated the liquid equiv. Like oh this is fluff so we’ll call this 12” 0.60”. Or this is a heavier fluff we’ll call it 15” 1.50”. Just lazy. Then in the comments they never mention rain in even the cuttiest of cutters...but they never failed to mention flurries. It looked like reports on their site. Hopefully BTV told them to pound sand.

1.41” final here. Had a trace of snow overnight. Down to 28.7°. Gonna have to call the pack a trace this morning. There’s almost nothing out back, but an inch or so out front. Pretty crazy how quickly we wiped out almost 3ft.

Upside down

Hillary Andrews just left the board

Nah. It's so warm the ground is thawed out so everything soaked in. They loved today. Old hens like warm winter days.

Congrats BTV on the high of 65F today. CAR breaks their old record by 9F.

Christmas Highs for NNE BTV 65R (62 in 1964) MHT 62 BGR 61R (54 in 2015) CON 59 MLT 59R (53 in 2015) CAR 57R (48 in 2014) PWM 55

The 70 and 71 readings were CWOP sites too.

Front just roared through. As for CAR...just noticed they had their first ever Nov 70s this year and their first ever Dec 60s as well. Lots of record highs up there the past 2 months.

It’s been done when they back in like that and turn from rain to snow. But the GFS struggles at 24hr so I’m not going to get emotional either way over 246hr.

I think most of us said to toss the winds inland. The best chances were just away from the shoreline. There were some high 60-70mph gusts in CT. It was probably a little more meh than I expected, but other than Kevin I don't think many were going wild here. We always laugh at the weenie gust maps that people post here and on Twitter. I gave Wizzy a bit of a hard time, but I didn't necessarily disagree with him...he just seemed a little needlessly angry about the higher wind forecasts. It was a pretty strong LLJ with torched low levels so I was intrigued to see it play out. The BOX numbers did seem over the top though.

MVL too.

Update

Next hour CAR should be warmer than EYW.

Nice. More snow for the chickens so far than Sugarbush.

The problem is a wave of low pressure formed on the front and really inverted the whole system. So up here it slowed and down south it accelerated...hence why we’re going to be getting the front and caa from the SW. It’s not as if the fronts up here are always slow...we can rip them through too. We’ve just had some exceptionally bad cutters lately. Plenty of winter to go though. We’ve rocked the 2nd half after a crap first half before (not that it’s been crap here).

There’s a lot of brightbanding right now on the edge of the beam.

Let me rephrase that...lol. Cutters can happen all season. But they don't look the same later in the season as they do now. We don't usually advect 50s dews up there later in Jan or Feb/Mar. It's more of a cold rain that does lesser damage.