dendrite

Be wary of the clown maps with this since there’s going to be a period of sleet.

Models are a mess up here. Euro and GFS16 with quite a bit of ZR. Maybe some S/IP to start.

Yeah...you definitely need a longer fetch to generate the streamers themselves...hence why Champlain needs a north wind or the very rare cold southerly wind. But it doesn’t take much of a body of water to enhance a system that’s already there. I’ve seen flurries flying in the air with clear skies down the hill along the Winnipesaukee River on very cold mornings near saturation. If you have a body of water that can produce decent radiation fog it’s going to create some moisture flux. I know there was some research from the LES crew I worked with in western NY that found there was even decent moisture flux on the Great Lakes with a mostly frozen surface. But the point is I agree...Champlain isn’t generating any precip on its own with those westerly components, but there will be some element of enhancement. Do you guys notice heavier snows from them earlier in the season versus mid season when Champlain creates higher delta Ts?

The Tug Hill rings out a lot of moisture before it hits the southern Dacks. There's probably not much left when it reaches the southern Greens. Those 250° northern Lake Ontario plumes can skirt around the Tug. Maybe there's a tiny bit of additional moisture flux feeding into it off of Champlain before it reaches the northern Greens too? I'll have to watch the low/mid level high res RH more during these upslope/LES events that reach VT.

A little black ice out there tonight. 32/31

Was Christine Miami, FL or Miami, WV?

Near 60F down there on Saturday on the Euro. I'm kinda jealous.

That 0.2" vaporized quickly.

+SN now...getting white again.

Moderate snow shower here too. Huge flakes.

The 16 looks a little more realistic.

Goofus with 3-5” here. Goofus16 with 2-3” of sleet and snow and then some ice. I feel like I should post a jspin bread and butter image.

Plenty of kinkiness in the isobars and you can see the circulation in the sfc reflection in the wind barbs here around PWM. Decent CAD for us.

GFS starting as snow and ice in SNE.

Congrats on the win

Yup...definitely the icier solutions.

Got the next frame? 12z op had no precip up here until after 18z...curious what the slower solutions look like.

When does the new Davis come in? I want it damaged right away.

Yeah I think your elevation made it a lot worse. 32-33° down lower is like 30-31° for you. I had to go pick up my broken down car in Lyndonville during it. I remember driving up with my dad and seeing the drooping trees in the Lakes Region. Then we got up to the notch and it wasn’t too bad at all. Then it picked up again in St. J.

A lot of times our icing setups trend toward more sleet or just more rain. If we’re getting enough CAD to maintain the ZR, usually it finds a way to be deep enough or cold enough to freeze back to IP. 2008 was pretty bad, but obviously the epicenter was further south...we had a pretty big mixed bag here. 1998 was a mess too, but we warmed up enough at times to 32-34 to minimize the damage and the epicenter was further north into Quebec. We’ve had plenty of moderate icing events though.

Euro says we ice.

All kidding aside, it's worth watching for the CAD regions in CNE/NNE. I'd like to see the Euro come in more SWFEish this run though. The new GFS had a little ice on the front end up here.

Don't stop, thinking about the cutter Don't stop, it'll soon be here It'll be here Wetter than before The snowpack is gone The snowpack is gone

Surprised you’re using the old FV3.

Don’t need the ice for multiple reasons. Def not boring lately...I’ll give you that.