A little east up this way, but I can't see the upper level features on 6z yet...replying on COD to update. I'll take others' word on it that H7 looks similar.
Not really sure what to expect back this way. The models that hammer us good are the 12k and ec. I’d like to see some other models come on board or trend more west. Gun to head, I think the ec and nam tick east a bit.
I should be specific about my vectors. Friction acts opposite to the real wind. The reduced speed reduces coriolis so the pgf (pressure gradient force) becomes dominant and the flow turns more ageostrophic over land. It’s basically an ekman spiral.
What also happens is friction causes an ageostrophic component to the wind. When you have onshore flow the wind inland is turned to the left or cyclonic. That helps to create extra convergence just inland with onshore flow.