dendrite

Definitely a little bit better CAD up here.

H7 looked a tick more west…and it’s definitely ripping that MLJ more westward into upstate NY. (I’m using 00z) What a waste of deformation snows too….lines up perfectly over lakes Erie and Ontario.

Not picking one I already experienced firsthand...so I'll go with Feb '69.

The euro is easily the coldest with 925 temps Mon morning and it's not even close...that's compared to the NAM, GFS, Ukie, GGEM, and RGEM. I didn't not look at the Navy. Sorry George.

I've been waiting for my paste bomb, but I either end up too far west or just a little too warm. At least I know how to line up my deformation bands.

Maybe a tick colder, but not much difference. What a QPF bomb though...like 1.25" in 6hrs. Whoever is getting snow in that will be getting 2-3"/hr. Romping in Randolph.

Gene is a tough one...with his elevation and interior location a couple ticks colder and he could be in business for something bigger. But I just feel like this ends up something closer to the NAM. Of course the Euro is coming out now and it'll probably give him 15" in a few minutes. lol

I'm not trying to poo poo it. I just think there's a lot of flags and I wouldn't be going aggressive onto the colder side of guidance. A lot has to go right for us to see big paste out of this. Phin's in another world with his east facing terrain which may help him squeeze out another 1F colder and more QPF.

The GFS ptype maps on COD have me getting heavy snow at 51hr, but when you look at the sounding it’s +2C at H95. Date: 51 hour GFS valid 15Z MON 17 JAN 22 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 953 267 1.9 1.8 99 0.2 1.8 88 16 278.9 279.7 277.4 291.5 4.56 2 950 289 2.0 1.8 99 0.2 1.9 93 24 279.2 280.0 277.5 291.8 4.57 3 900 725 0.1 0.1 100 0.0 0.1 98 46 281.6 282.4 278.4 293.6 4.28 4 850 1182 -1.5 -1.6 99 0.1 -1.5 106 58 284.6 285.3 279.5 295.9 4.00 5 800 1663 -3.3 -3.5 99 0.2 -3.4 115 69 287.6 288.3 280.6 298.2 3.69 6 750 2172 -4.7 -5.0 98 0.3 -4.8 127 79 291.4 292.1 282.1 301.7 3.51 7 700 2715 -5.4 -5.8 97 0.4 -5.5 142 84 296.5 297.2 284.2 307.1 3.55 8 650 3294 -8.0 -8.5 96 0.5 -8.2 147 82 299.9 300.5 285.1 309.4 3.09 9 600 3912 -11.2 -11.9 95 0.6 -11.5 149 80 303.1 303.6 285.7 311.1 2.56 10 550 4574 -15.2 -15.7 96 0.5 -15.4 151 76 306.0 306.4 286.2 312.5 2.04 11 500 5288 -19.8 -20.3 95 0.5 -19.9 156 72 309.0 309.2 286.7 313.9 1.52

This is going to be in and out of here relatively quickly. So I’m selling those modeled 1.5” QPF bombs in 6 hours in the form of snow. I could see a couple of hours of heavy here and maybe 4-5 hours around Gene, but I think there’s going to be a period where the models are indicating a ptype of snow, but the column below 850 is marginal or +1C near the surface and it’s just slobbering paste or catpaws mixed with rain. Eventually we all flip to liquid and the new pack becomes a slush puppy…especially down our way. That’s where I lean right now. There’s not much of a mechanism to hold the cold in. There’s a little in-situ CAD, but strong E flow can quickly erode that away. The large pressure falls are to our west so we’re not getting that northerly isallobaric component. It’s just a massive push of WAA in a short amount of time…except it’s backing in more from the east instead of the usual SW WAA we get in a SWFE.

No...lol

I’m leaning 6-8” up there as of now.

How are the birds handling the cold? I left mine in the coop this morning where there’s no drafts and it’s a little warmer. I just went in there and it’s 10° whereas the run is 0° and it’s still -3° outside. Maybe around noon I’ll let them into the run when the sun is beating on it more. The spruce trees on the south sude if my yard have gotten tall enough that they block the sun this time of year.

Yeah it’s now all under 3300’. I noticed the Hermit Lake snow plot at 3700’ was only -3°…way warmer than the rest of Coos.

I mean it doesn’t get a lot colder up there than this since you don’t really radiate. I’m sure your area has done -20s with wind, but like Will said, normally these temps with these winds yield mid -30s on MWN which is pushing their extremes.

I’ll be surprised if we get 3-5” total.

Subtropical storm

-7.7/-18 useless degrees

More like cold of yore…deep knicker freezing airmasses that come in under 850mb.

I mean that’s really nbd for them. It’s weird to see strong NW flow and they have the same temp as BML.

It is brutal out there. -7° and gusting to 30mph. My bamboo is going to all be top killed after this. Gene is -12° and Diamond Pond -21°.

Are the GEFS still outside of the Cape?

Looks like it’s coming in under 4000ft.

This airmass means business. Gusting over 40mph and down to 6°.

GFS was BGM to BTV. I mean is anyone really going to doubt it cutting through upstate NY at this point?