dendrite

5-8" for me and Mark 8-12" Gene 12-16" Phin

Didn't see the 6z euro, but 00z ticked warmer from yesterday at 12z. Some ticks cooler on the NAM and GFS. So looks like we're meeting somewhere in the middle.

Should be a few hours of low 40s. Even if he holds u30s during the warm conveyor he'll have the front come through from the SW to mix it out and he'll end up with some low 40s with weak CAA anyway. The caveat will be breaks in the overcast during midday while the airmass is still relatively warm. Pop some sun for an hour or so and it shoots up to 45+.

The Bills just scored again.

However many you want it to be.

-29° at Pittsburg and Island Pond are the 2 coldest obs I see. -7.2° here

Not sure I believe that. Cocorahs has more believable numbers (3.0”/0.10”). They’re probably having issues with the can although I have no idea what their equipment is.

I’m not used to seeing 2 Vermonters fighting with each other. It’s supposed to be a zen utopia over there. Tensions are rising from the lack of snow.

Last 5 runs at 925…mostly noise?

I mean 850 is cooler, but no changes at 925.

Not sure what some of you are seeing. NAM looks just as warm as 00z last night and DIT is definitely going over 40.

Euro is on its own with the 925mb temps.

Not yet

Yeah we’re getting into the return flow now…gonna be tough to bottom out unless you’re in a sheltered valley. Maybe we can lighten up the wind a little before sunrise.

I mean it was just a tick at one level to keep it an isothermal 0c versus a warm nose of +1C at 850. Still torched overall.

Nammy coming in a tick cooler at 850 letting the snow hold on longer over Worcester county.

I did have a spike downward a little after 10am in the middle of the steadily rising barometer.

Maybe I should’ve said 6-10”. It’s basically a 6-8hr window for heavy rates so everything has to go right to realize that liquid. We’re upgliding over a cold dome and will push that coastal front more inland than usual, but that still a lot of QPF to squeeze in there for 6hrs in the form of snow. In the back of my head I see this ticking warmer with the changeover leaning toward the warmer models. So if it ends up colder more toward 10” there and if it ends up warmer then more toward the lower end. Like I said to dryslot, it’s basically a race between the warmth and the precip. And with the modeled rates there’s bust potential either way if it stays snow 2hrs longer versus raining 2hrs sooner. It’ll be a fun one to watch play out. Hopefully you stay mostly snow until the midlevel dry slot pushes through. It should be really pastey during the day.

Weenie. I'm not going there. I have no idea what you have for pack or the water content in it. You'll have 40s for a few hours...for a bit in the warm sector and then after the CAA kicks in from the SW.

These mesolows aren't your typical secondary redeveloping triple-point lows. These are little convective mesolows forming along the warm conveyor. They're not having an influence on your pack.

Did you look at the model? It's still through BGM.

I don't think H5 matters much at this point...it's out in NY. We just need to keep that cold wedged as long as possible. It's a race between the precip and WAA.

Definitely a little bit better CAD up here.

H7 looked a tick more west…and it’s definitely ripping that MLJ more westward into upstate NY. (I’m using 00z) What a waste of deformation snows too….lines up perfectly over lakes Erie and Ontario.