dendrite

He’s looking at his location.

That trailing s/w coming out of Canada that phases in late to really nuke the system and tilt the trough negative is similarly timed though on both models. At 138h it’s over Lk Superior on both models. I feel like the GFS dragging that SW s/w out slower let’s that Canadian s/w phase in sooner westward whereas the wave spacing on the euro is larger and hence a later phase. The GGEM starts to really take on a different look after 102h. That western ridge really amplifies and the energy diving out of Canada comes in much steeper (N/S) and sooner and the whole system starts going bonkers early. so even though the southern s/w ejects out of the SW faster than the euro it’s getting the Canadian phasing sooner.

heh...120hr the GFS has it crawling through NM while the GGEM is over the MS delta.

The initial s/w diving into the Plains kinda splits this run. There’s a piece to the north that runs out ahead of the stronger southern piece that really digs into and crawls through TX/NM. That northern piece that gets away seems to be flattening the heights ahead of the southern s/w and since it’s crawling to begin with there’s a major positive tilt to the trough. Eventually it starts to amplify and that northern piece dampens out. The s/w I mark in Canada eventually dives in to phase and clean everything out, but it’s just a little too late for us on this run. The models are still struggling with trying to find the little nuances in the flow which can make a big impact on the final outcome. As everyone else has said, the signal is there. Be happy with that and just keep an eye on it. It’s not worth getting emotionally invested into it right now.

Weenies get scared. They need to see all models crushing their area on every run for a week straight. T minus 12 hours from go-time and we start getting the “all models suck” posts when the storm evolution looks nothing like it did at d7.

They’ve been modeling 950mb lows a week out…wtf?

Fizzling clipper tonight…that brought the light snow to Green Bay last night.

Yup…and many never learn.

1.0° here. Couldn’t quite get below zero.

Navgem?

They’re like waiting for the difax charts to come in during the mid 90s

Beer

Only 25 more runs to go.

Congrats ENE

They're going the opposite direction, but we're ripping them over the equator and into it too. I'm not even sure which way my toilet water will flush down right now.

By morning he may have 40-48 with lolli's to 60.

It could be the first octuple phaser

Look out ladies.

80s wx pattern. 80s Bengals.

Think I’m at 28.0” to date.

But even that doesn’t have a raging pac jet slamming against the west coast head on.

That ULL crawls after it cuts off.

LBSW

Why are those homes and mailboxes caked in snow, but the lawn is greener than Taunton?

I'm glad I have 10"+ of pack because this cold would be doing a number on the root systems of my young fruit trees without it. 32F at 4" deep and 33F at 8" deep. So yeah, it looks like winter, but it's functional too.