It's like barely affecting the region on the NAM right now at 84hr...lots of time to go. I wasn't progged to get 34" 3 days out last December. That "southern" s/w is still up in the Yukon right now.
I think some of these old perceived biases need to die. These models get so many updates and upgrades now that it’s difficult to apply biases from 15-20 yrs ago to today. I know many still believe in them, but I’d need to see some kind of research to be convinced. Just my $0.02.