Hey I salute you. There’s too much volatility and chaos for me to get into the seasonal forecasting, but I respect those who try. That’s how we further the science on everything.
I mean we’ve had months up here where the temp never gets above freezing or only for like a day and it’s usually one of those pre-WINDEX setups. We’re only supposed to pull off 50° dews in the cuttiest of the cutters. No problemo lately though.
I mean sure…the longer you go the more of the season you’re punting. You start turning into last year’s Dolphins…can still have a nice finish, but the season as a whole winds up disappointing. There’s a lot of time to go though…just hope we get a nice wintry stretch to enjoy.
1.4” around 1 when I got home. Saw very little OTG right up to exit 19. Had to get some elevation to see anything beyond a 1/2” on the ground or snow sticking in the trees.
I’ve noticed the past couple of days the H85-92 cold advection in N ME getting less “push” and figured it may translate toward the tuck our way. We really rely on that ageostrophic wetbulbing in these setup to succeed. Instead it’s mostly been stale sfc air all day with everyone in the lower els 32-34.
NAM a hair overdone with the cold, Euro overdone with the warmth. RGEM this morning looks pretty good with the colder air deep into the CTRV, torch along S coast, and low 50s around Kevin.
The problem is the front lagging a la 1888. Plenty of easterly inflow aloft back to WNE. It's a weird, rare solution so we smile at it and wait for 18z.